I was searching for another incident (sending off of a Brentford player in a play-off semi after an 'exemplary sliding tackle' (a Brentford supporter's words)) but this gem came up.
The worst refereeing decision I've ever witnessed at St. James' Park - YouTube
He is just incompetent.
It was rated as a 1 in 11 chance.
Whilst I'm writing, it was good to see that W Brom were so wasteful last night. xGs - W Brom 2.45 Derby 0.13. We'd certainly be moaning about 2 points dropped if that happened to us.
The xG timeline below. Remember they aren't my stats and xG is flawed but interesting to some :).
I've delayed posting this as I hoped, unsuccessfully, that they would re-evaluate Billing's chance which is rated 1 in 20, which seems low.
Travers' flap doesn't register as it wasn't a...
I'd be warned to watch out for Stroud last season from a Brentford supporter and he hasn't let us down. Although his incompetence came to our rescue when he didn't give Zemura a second booking for putting the ball into the crowd. This was stupid behaviour - dribble it towards your keeper and...
It is inherently statistical. I expect that it will be derived from a logistic regression (where binary events - (goal or not) are translated into a probability) but Lew is correct that the population of the initial model, and then the predictions that come from it, will be subject to...
I'm surprised in all of the slight improvements that could haver made a great day even better, that no-one has mentioned Lerma's booking.
3-0 up, in the last minute, and (from the radio commentary) he picks up a needless booking. This could make a difference between a ban or not.
I haven’t seen it, so can’t comment, but I do think we tend to overestimate how easy chances are. About 1 in 5 pens are missed and you get shockers like Josh King’s miss for Norway. Clear chances may only be 50:50 as well. Brooks seems to be in the groove of putting one on ones wide at the min...
That was down as 5%. Not having seen the game no idea how far out that might be. There will be error in individual values, but the clear message today from these stats is that only one side looked dangerous
They have just added a Dom chance and upgraded Christie's effort - it is now 2.96 - I normally wait to se if chances get adjusted.
The key chances were (I didn't see the game, so am just reporting it)
First half - Zemora's goal (45%, it was preceded by an 8% shot). Solanke in the 44 min...