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  1. M

    That prat Stroud

    That's the conclusion I came to, but the free-kick is taken from where the encroaching player was....:hmmm:
  2. M

    That prat Stroud

    I was searching for another incident (sending off of a Brentford player in a play-off semi after an 'exemplary sliding tackle' (a Brentford supporter's words)) but this gem came up. The worst refereeing decision I've ever witnessed at St. James' Park - YouTube He is just incompetent.
  3. M

    Congrats

    But xG was 1.51 to 1.18 in our favour suggesting their shots were from less dangerous positions. Sorry, I couldn't resist :grinning::throw:
  4. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Queens Park Rangers

    It was rated as a 1 in 11 chance. Whilst I'm writing, it was good to see that W Brom were so wasteful last night. xGs - W Brom 2.45 Derby 0.13. We'd certainly be moaning about 2 points dropped if that happened to us.
  5. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Queens Park Rangers

    Hi all, The xG timeline below. Remember they aren't my stats and xG is flawed but interesting to some :). I've delayed posting this as I hoped, unsuccessfully, that they would re-evaluate Billing's chance which is rated 1 in 20, which seems low. Travers' flap doesn't register as it wasn't a...
  6. M

    That prat Stroud

    I'd be warned to watch out for Stroud last season from a Brentford supporter and he hasn't let us down. Although his incompetence came to our rescue when he didn't give Zemura a second booking for putting the ball into the crowd. This was stupid behaviour - dribble it towards your keeper and...
  7. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Queens Park Rangers

    I think it is called Knight-esque
  8. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    It is inherently statistical. I expect that it will be derived from a logistic regression (where binary events - (goal or not) are translated into a probability) but Lew is correct that the population of the initial model, and then the predictions that come from it, will be subject to...
  9. M

    Negativity on this board

    I'm surprised in all of the slight improvements that could haver made a great day even better, that no-one has mentioned Lerma's booking. 3-0 up, in the last minute, and (from the radio commentary) he picks up a needless booking. This could make a difference between a ban or not.
  10. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    I haven’t seen it, so can’t comment, but I do think we tend to overestimate how easy chances are. About 1 in 5 pens are missed and you get shockers like Josh King’s miss for Norway. Clear chances may only be 50:50 as well. Brooks seems to be in the groove of putting one on ones wide at the min...
  11. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    That was down as 5%. Not having seen the game no idea how far out that might be. There will be error in individual values, but the clear message today from these stats is that only one side looked dangerous
  12. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    xG only counts shots, and they didn't have any, although the commentators agree that they looked the better team early on.
  13. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    They have just added a Dom chance and upgraded Christie's effort - it is now 2.96 - I normally wait to se if chances get adjusted. The key chances were (I didn't see the game, so am just reporting it) First half - Zemora's goal (45%, it was preceded by an 8% shot). Solanke in the 44 min...
  14. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    Just to show how 'good' those chances were. Here is the xG timeline. Crosses flashing across the box don't show up and listening on the radio it seemed we had a few of these.
  15. M

    Steve Cook

    Teams like Man C, Man U are in a similar position to us, albeit at a higher level, in having two good players for every position. We don’t hear them complaining much as they have a good chance of winning things. Much like us with the Championship title this year hopefully. With this squad it is...
  16. M

    AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

    This reminded me of John Bailey having wound up the entire Preston team. I lost count of the number of bookings for fouls on him in the last 30 mins, but I suspect it was at least 4. We 'stole' a 1-0 win too, if my memory holds (that was a heavy cider-drinking day).
  17. M

    Ryan Christie

    And I the only pessimist who is worried about a long-term injury before he even starts a game?
  18. M

    Jamal Lowe

    BTK's table in another thread is interesting (attached) It shows just how good Arnie was at finishing - his xG was so much lower than any other striker. Lowe seems as good a replacement as we were likely to get, so I'm happy.
  19. M

    Arnaut Danjuma

    Thanks, but to answer the predictable follow-up question, why does he do a snake? - I'm happy to tell them he just does if that is the answer!