AFC Bournemouth v Barnsley

I don’t really get the expected goals thing. 6 or 7 nil wouldn’t have flattered us so I don’t get how it can be 2.53 goals.
They have just added a Dom chance and upgraded Christie's effort - it is now 2.96 - I normally wait to se if chances get adjusted.

Barnsley.JPG

The key chances were (I didn't see the game, so am just reporting it)

First half - Zemora's goal (45%, it was preceded by an 8% shot). Solanke in the 44 min (22%) and in injury time (44%)

Second half - Solanke in the 46th min (60%), Christie 82nd minute (27%) and Zemura 82nd minute (54%).

So we had six shots that were deemed to be better than 1 in 5 of scoring.

All of the dangerous crosses that sounded as they were just in front of Dom wouldn't have registered. It depends how many of those you count in the 6 or 7 we could have had. Fans count them but xG doesn't.
 
They have just added a Dom chance and upgraded Christie's effort - it is now 2.96 - I normally wait to se if chances get adjusted.

View attachment 6348

The key chances were (I didn't see the game, so am just reporting it)

First half - Zemora's goal (45%, it was preceded by an 8% shot). Solanke in the 44 min (22%) and in injury time (44%)

Second half - Solanke in the 46th min (60%), Christie 82nd minute (27%) and Zemura 82nd minute (54%).


So we had six shots that were deemed to be better than 1 in 5 of scoring.

All of the dangerous crosses that sounded as they were just in front of Dom wouldn't have registered. It depends how many of those you count in the 6 or 7 we could have had. Fans count them but xG doesn't.
Smith had a shot that the keeper parred over the bar in the second half, does that count?
 
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They have just added a Dom chance and upgraded Christie's effort - it is now 2.96 - I normally wait to se if chances get adjusted.

View attachment 6348

The key chances were (I didn't see the game, so am just reporting it)

First half - Zemora's goal (45%, it was preceded by an 8% shot). Solanke in the 44 min (22%) and in injury time (44%)

Second half - Solanke in the 46th min (60%), Christie 82nd minute (27%) and Zemura 82nd minute (54%).

So we had six shots that were deemed to be better than 1 in 5 of scoring.

All of the dangerous crosses that sounded as they were just in front of Dom wouldn't have registered. It depends how many of those you count in the 6 or 7 we could have had. Fans count them but xG doesn't.
It should be higher, without doubt. Solanke’s goal would only be scored 60% of the time? I’m sorry, but that’s nonsense.
 
O

It should be higher, without doubt. Solanke’s goal would only be scored 60% of the time? I’m sorry, but that’s nonsense.
I haven’t seen it, so can’t comment, but I do think we tend to overestimate how easy chances are. About 1 in 5 pens are missed and you get shockers like Josh King’s miss for Norway. Clear chances may only be 50:50 as well. Brooks seems to be in the groove of putting one on ones wide at the min, for instance.

They aren’t my stats so I’ve no vested interest but they are supposed to be based on long-term averages from real games.

I like xG as a rough indicator of the flow of the game and whether we were robbed or stole a game. I’m mildly surprised at how much ithey can seemingly irritate people though!