AFC Bournemouth v Spurs - Thursday 8.15 pm

Is the PL injury site usually accurate?
Sometimes, sometimes players return quicker.

Gives an idea.

Basically until we hear what our manager says at the press conference, we won’t know.

At the press conference before the Wolves game, he gave information on certain players and then said plus one or two niggles (Cook).
 
This game could be any score?

we cant seem to keep a clean sheet and nor can Spurs (although ironically they did at The Emptyhad!) Goals will be a plenty I fancy.
It will be good to welcome Dom back and I am expecting him to score, and think that his replacement here, Evanilson, to probably aswell...

I'm going for 4-2, 3-3, or 2-3...

One thing for absolute certain it won't be an arduous 0-0 !!
Bournemouthy vs Spursy - could literally be any result and scoreline.

UTCIAD.
 
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Spurs. These were three home games (A Villa, Ipswich and Fulham) and one away game (Man City). Spurs have gained 7 points, but won the two ‘hardest’ games, Man City and A Villa, and lost in the ‘easiest’, to Ipswich. Spurs have scored 10 goals and conceded 4, but this is a stark contrast with xG, with estimates at 7.28 goals with 7.21 conceded. It is unlikely that this anomaly will continue.


Goals Xg.jpg


Spurs have had 5 different goal scorers with Maddison and Johnson both netting 3 and Solanke 2. Werner, Solanke Kulusevski and Solanke have 2 assists each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. Bar the Man City game Spurs played aggressively, typically with wide men upfront.

Av Pos.jpg
The following plot compares summary stats of Spurs and AFCB over the last 4 games.

Spurs have had more goal attempts per game and more big chances, and have scored 1 more than AFCB. Spurs have conceded more chances, and six more big chances, but have let in less goals as the opposition haven’t converted the chances. There does look an error in the Spurs team with 3 errors leading to chances compared with AFCB’s none. The expected outcomes are in AFCB’s favour, having a higher xG and a lower xGc.

Comparison.png

Spurs have had more possession and have higher pass completion stats. AFCB have more chances from open play (which must be negatively affected by the 3 penalties) but AFCB have been conceding a higher percentage from set pieces.

Percentages.png
 
The worrying thing is that we have to face Ipswich two days later. The players will be feeling the effects of fatigue by then and AI has already alluded that there will be changes for this game. Another worrying thing is that Ipswich will have had an extra days recovery after their last game before facing us.

Again we cannot afford to drop points against clubs in the bottom three.
You do worry a lot, don’t you.
 
Neither will I if the truth was to be known. However, us beating Spurs is probably, in all fairness, not going to happen. A point from both Spurs and Ipswich would be satisfactory.
Spurs are slight favourites with the bookies at 29/20.
We’re favourites at Ipswich by quite a margin. 6/5.
 
Spurs are slight favourites with the bookies at 29/20.
We’re favourites at Ipswich by quite a margin. 6/5.
We are only favorites for the ipswich game by current form. What the bookies have not taken into account us that we will only have two clear days after the Spurs game and so we will be knackered. Ipswich will be fresher as they would have had three days to recover from their last game.

These are the small particulars that the bookies don't take into account when issuing odds.
 
We are only favorites for the ipswich game by current form. What the bookies have not taken into account us that we will only have two clear days after the Spurs game and so we will be knackered. Ipswich will be fresher as they would have had three days to recover from their last game.

These are the small particulars that the bookies don't take into account when issuing odds.
Can't you get anything right?
Ipswich play tonight so they have more than three clear days to prepare.
 
We are only favorites for the ipswich game by current form. What the bookies have not taken into account us that we will only have two clear days after the Spurs game and so we will be knackered. Ipswich will be fresher as they would have had three days to recover from their last game.

These are the small particulars that the bookies don't take into account when issuing odds.
Are you really that clueless that you think bookies and the computers that set the odds don't know who is playing, when they are playing, injuries, suspensions, current form etc.
 
Are you really that clueless that you think bookies and the computers that set the odds don't know who is playing, when they are playing, injuries, suspensions, current form etc.

The one that used to be in the Cherry Tree didn’t. Made a fortune (well not really but won plenty) on O’Connor taking penalties one season… if only Matt Mills didn’t miss in the opening few minutes at 100/1 when he just signed on loan…
 
Are you really that clueless that you think bookies and the computers that set the odds don't know who is playing, when they are playing, injuries, suspensions, current form etc.
No doubt they do. But they don't take this into account. Nor do they take into account the fatigue of the players or the injuries that each side may have.
 
There’s really no excuse for unemployment when all you need to be a oods compiler for one of the big bookmakers is the ability to google each teams recent results.....incredible stuff.
 

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