Non - Brexit

[SlowDownDerek]

Agree to disagree on the 2nd para if you don't mind. ROI, in my opinion, have stood up for themselves as a sovereign equal EU member, and also for NI. I think it has come as a surprise to some in the UK Govt that the The ROI has a voice and not in total servitude to the UK anymore.

They might have stuck up for themselves but they have definitely used the history of the border and the GFA as leverage against the UK government. Clearly if there was no GFA there would be no backstop - Germany, France etc. wouldn't have been able to insist on a backstop without the Irish issue in play.

I would suggest that the Irish government's insistence on the backstop is less to do with the chances of violence and more to do with the damage that they know that not being in a customs union with the UK will cause to their economy. Obviously the EU is only too happy to back them up because they can leverage this to force the UK into closer alignment.

Personally I would treat the threat of violence due to border issues in the same way I'd treat the threat of violence from people like Farage - don't pay any attention to it whatsoever.

 

[redharry]

But people, on both sides, repeatedly forget that the EU consistently does everything it can to prevent the will of a nation's people, if that will doesn't fit with the EU's plans.

The EU's objective is to get the nation in, make it follow the EU's rules, remove sovereignty, and then federalise Europe.

The poison chalice handed to Mrs May was to negotiate with a block who's sole aim in those meetings is to prevent us leaving the EU in any shape or form.

If negotiations go well what message does that send any other EU country that's flirting with the idea of leaving?

The EU needs Brexit to either not happen or go horrifically badly.

Unfortunately, we're so obsessed with our own pathetic MPs, on both sides of Brexit, that, with classic British arrogance, we've pretty much ignored what the other side is about, how they're organising themselves, what their aims and objectives are, etc.

100% agree with all that.

 

[redharry]

Agree to disagree on the 2nd para if you don't mind. ROI, in my opinion, have stood up for themselves as a sovereign equal EU member, and also for NI. I think it has come as a surprise to some in the UK Govt that the The ROI has a voice and not in total servitude to the UK anymore.

Your other point about no mandate is spot on. If say at a general election there is no clear winner, you can at least fall back and have a coalition. Its a shame in this instance that no such solution is possible. I am of the view Corbyn and May both ticked the box to leave the EU, so its ironic that they should have not worked together as i think they have a lot in common in their dislike of the EU. May on her quest for immigration targets, and Corbyn for his dislike of their company nationalisation rules.

The ROI has been a very useful tool for the EU in negotiations. After it is all over (whatever way it goes) the ROI will go back to being a minor backwater as far as the EU is concerned. I remember how the ROI had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 and voted 53.4% to 46.6% to reject it. The EU forced them to hold another referndum amidst threats of serious recriminations. Worth reading this to show how ruthless the EU is in pursuance of its "project".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/eu-ireland-lisbon-treaty

 

[dutchcherry]

Cant argue with those positive aspects of our Membership re - the Ring fencing and your point about tax investment by our Gov 'mt......I was on the fence before the vote and very Euro orientated for many years but frustrated by much , i.e. Fishing and Farming details ( family involvements) and not least the fact that we didnt accept the Currency. With regard the currency...if you are going to join something ...join in full!
IF....there was a 2nd referendum, my wife and I have discussed this...we will probably switch back to Remain...once again out of frustration but hoping that the new generations can make a better fist of it!
The Irish thing...you didnt want go there on that subject...fair enough.
I did go there.....and was in close proximity to a 'sectarian' bomb explosion in Bangor Woolworths shop ( meant to be a safe area) in 1974...(I was on leave from naval duty in the Belfast dockyard, sat in a pub across the road)...not a pleasant experience!
I dont think I heard any one Irish person talk sense about anything for the whole 6 months I was there...so i'm slightly biased I suppose!

I did not want to go there in the sense of when you mentioned 'silly border', 'growing up' and 'entering the 21st C' I presumed wrongly you were going to refer to tired stereotypes about the Irish. Reading what you went through I take back my lazy assumption. I can see why you used such terms. That's horrible what you experienced.

 

[dutchcherry]

The ROI has been a very useful tool for the EU in negotiations. After it is all over (whatever way it goes) the ROI will go back to being a minor backwater as far as the EU is concerned. I remember how the ROI had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 and voted 53.4% to 46.6% to reject it. The EU forced them to hold another referndum amidst threats of serious recriminations. Worth reading this to show how ruthless the EU is in pursuance of its "project".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/eu-ireland-lisbon-treaty

Wow the Guardian then sounds like the Mail/Telegraph/Times/Sun/BBC and Express today

And at the second vote, it was a big swing the other way, 67.1% to 32.9%. Poll's following the first vote showed that the leading reason for many was they did not understand it. Secondly, this had to be written into their constitution which always carries more significance than say here where it is just a law. That's why the second most popular reason was 'losing Irish identity'. Sounds familiar.

They negotiated better terms, they were then translated across better to the people. The EU learned a lesson to stop writing stuff as if everyone is a lawyer. Maybe that's why the EU are standing with Ireland this time.

 

[billythekid]

Sky

Environment Secretary Michael Gove then begins the debate on the PM's motion, as he fills in for Theresa May as she nurses a sore throat.

He says: "She may temporarily have lost her voice, but what she has never lost and will never lose is a focus on the national interest and a full-hearted desire to do what is right for our country."


Speaker of the House of Commons John Bercow has chosen two amendments for debate ahead of a vote on the PM's motion on a no-deal Brexit.

These are:

1) An amendment put forward by Tory MP Caroline Spelman and Labour's Jack Dromey - which seeks to rule out no deal completely.

2) An amendment backed by Tory Remainers, Brexiteers and the DUP, which seeks to deliver a managed no-deal Brexit. Known as the "Malthouse" amendment - after the Conservative MP who came up with the plan - this would delay Brexit to 22 May, with a Brexit transition period to 2021 alongside a deal on citizens' rights.

 

[wallmth]

The ROI has been a very useful tool for the EU in negotiations. After it is all over (whatever way it goes) the ROI will go back to being a minor backwater as far as the EU is concerned. I remember how the ROI had a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty in 2008 and voted 53.4% to 46.6% to reject it. The EU forced them to hold another referndum amidst threats of serious recriminations. Worth reading this to show how ruthless the EU is in pursuance of its "project".

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/dec/13/eu-ireland-lisbon-treaty

Add to that the ROI are pretty much a debtor state to the EU .They owe eye watering amounts of money .

 

[Def_II_Royalz]

Thanks man, this is helpful.

For the most part, arguments from both sides on this thread have been quite articulate and I've learned a lot more here than from reading the news.

Well done all, just a shame the stituation seems such a mess.

I'm certainly no expert but it's my understanding that the border issue depends entirely on the nature of whatever free trade area conditions are agreed, which are likely to be on an industry specific basis.

If for example we agree to standardising regulations in the agricultural industry but not in say petrochemicals then agri products wouldn't need border checks but petro would. It would then need to be determined what the precise nature of the border checks would need to be in each industry where they are required.

In the long run it would probably just find it's level - it's not like there aren't cross-border regulation/tax differences at present - they are just dealt with by using non-border checks and declarations.

With it being brought to the front of the negotiations it seems to me that we are arguing about hypothetical controls that may never be required.

 

[kirsikka]

Ireland has done very, very, very well out of the EU and anyone trying to rewrite history now to say otherwise is rather misleading.

Yes, they found themselves in a mess on the back of the banking crisis but weren't the only ones. There was some pain on the back of that in many places. There was pain in the UK on the back of austerity. Same difference.

The economy has changed almost beyond all recognition since they joined the EU. The general standards of living are so much higher.

Trying to paint them as poor victims who have suffered at the hands of the EU is ridiculous.

 

[wallmth]

Ireland has done very, very, very well out of the EU and anyone trying to rewrite history now to say otherwise is rather misleading.

Yes, they found themselves in a mess on the back of the banking crisis but weren't the only ones. There was some pain on the back of that in many places. There was pain in the UK on the back of austerity. Same difference.

The economy has changed almost beyond all recognition since they joined the EU. The general standards of living are so much higher.

Trying to paint them as poor victims who have suffered at the hands of the EU is ridiculous.

Your totally right they are one of the countries that has done very well from EU/our largess .They do owe an awful lot of money though .
I think I read somewhere they owe more per head than any other EU country ,even more than Greece and Italy .

 

[rgb]

How do you know the IMPACT of leave ,we havnt left yet . All you know is what the usual suspects ( who have been wrong time and time again ) have told you .

Exactly. Look what George Osbornbe said would happen in the event of a 'Leave' majority :
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu
'George Osborne will warn that he would have to fill the £30bn black hole in public finances triggered by a vote to leave the European Union by hiking income tax, alcohol and petrol duties and making massive cuts to the NHS, schools and defence.

In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote.....'

EU referendum: Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury
And did any of his dire predictions come to pass? No.

- unemployment

…a record number of Britons are now in work and more foreigners have jobs than before the referendum… Before the vote George Osborne claimed up to 820,000 jobs could be lost within two years if Britain chose to leave.”
More Britons are in work now than at any time since records began. In the first three months of this year about 32 million people over the age of 16 were in work.

Similarly the employment rate was also at its highest—around 76% of UK adults aged 16 to 64 were employed (or around 31 million).

Just before the referendum (from April-June 2016), the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was about 74%.

- UK economy grew
UK GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 was 0.4%. In the Eurozone it was 0.3%.

- Emergency budget
George Osborne has announced there will be no emergency budget in the wake of the UK's vote to leave the European Union last week.

The simple fact, is that our MPs are interested in burying their snouts, deep in the Westminster/Brussels trough(s) and not interested in taking responsibility for passing legislation themselves. After all, if it were truly those people who go to work in the Palace of Westminster - renovation costs, £4,000,000,000, how many hospitals would that little lot run? - who were properly held accountable for decisions affecting the populations' livelihoods, they might be a tad worried about being held to account.

As it is, they prefer to pervert justice, go to gaol, continue to be paid whilst in chokey, come out and straight back to claiming expenses. Read about Vicky Pryce (real name ‎Vasiliki Kourmouzi ) and how she has no regrets about taking tax-payer money to fund her book/'job' as Head of UK Government Economic Service. The scum-bag Chris Huhne, who now takes taxpayer money, lobbying for foreign manufacturers 'climate change' greed of increasing fuel bills through subsidies. He doesn't care that so many families struggle with fuel bills, because he has a big, fat, juicy pension, from his time as an MP/Govt. Minister.

Those of you who the think the likes of Juncker/Tusk/Verhofstadt are any different to the likes of Pryce, Huhne or Onasanya, are either being disingenuous, or seriously deluded.

 

[rgb]

Ireland has done very, very, very well out of the EU and anyone trying to rewrite history now to say otherwise is rather misleading.

Yes, they found themselves in a mess on the back of the banking crisis but weren't the only ones. There was some pain on the back of that in many places. There was pain in the UK on the back of austerity. Same difference.

The economy has changed almost beyond all recognition since they joined the EU. The general standards of living are so much higher.

Trying to paint them as poor victims who have suffered at the hands of the EU is ridiculous.

I spent many years working in EU countries and I used to be in Ireland 20-30 times per year. They laughingly referred to the massive infrastructure projects, as 'Chancellor Kohl's tax-Euros..' and loved the money flowing into their country from the net contributors.

 

[rgb]

Correct me if I'm wrong but companies are moving out by moving their headquarters or certain departments out of the country. Perhaps the numbers are small at the moment.
I've read articles that they are.
Surely you agree that there have been benefits of being a member of the EU for the last 40 years (otherwise we'd have left many years ago).

Correct me if I'm wrong but the UK had the world's largest bank - The Midland - and was the world's largest exporter BEFORE joining the EEC/Common Market/EC/EU

 

[redharry]

Ireland has done very, very, very well out of the EU and anyone trying to rewrite history now to say otherwise is rather misleading.

Yes, they found themselves in a mess on the back of the banking crisis but weren't the only ones. There was some pain on the back of that in many places. There was pain in the UK on the back of austerity. Same difference.

The economy has changed almost beyond all recognition since they joined the EU. The general standards of living are so much higher.

Trying to paint them as poor victims who have suffered at the hands of the EU is ridiculous.

They certainly aren't victims, they are a useful tool of the EU bureacracy at the moment though. Just watch how quick they will fade after this lot of shenanigans.

 

[redharry]

Wow the Guardian then sounds like the Mail/Telegraph/Times/Sun/BBC and Express today

And at the second vote, it was a big swing the other way, 67.1% to 32.9%. Poll's following the first vote showed that the leading reason for many was they did not understand it. Secondly, this had to be written into their constitution which always carries more significance than say here where it is just a law. That's why the second most popular reason was 'losing Irish identity'. Sounds familiar.

They negotiated better terms, they were then translated across better to the people. The EU learned a lesson to stop writing stuff as if everyone is a lawyer. Maybe that's why the EU are standing with Ireland this time.

ah, the old "but you were too stupid to understand the first time so we need a 2nd vote" argument.

 

[wallmth]

Exactly. Look what George Osbornbe said would happen in the event of a 'Leave' majority :
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu
'George Osborne will warn that he would have to fill the £30bn black hole in public finances triggered by a vote to leave the European Union by hiking income tax, alcohol and petrol duties and making massive cuts to the NHS, schools and defence.

In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote.....'

EU referendum: Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury
And did any of his dire predictions come to pass? No.

- unemployment

…a record number of Britons are now in work and more foreigners have jobs than before the referendum… Before the vote George Osborne claimed up to 820,000 jobs could be lost within two years if Britain chose to leave.”
More Britons are in work now than at any time since records began. In the first three months of this year about 32 million people over the age of 16 were in work.

Similarly the employment rate was also at its highest—around 76% of UK adults aged 16 to 64 were employed (or around 31 million).

Just before the referendum (from April-June 2016), the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was about 74%.

- UK economy grew
UK GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 was 0.4%. In the Eurozone it was 0.3%.

- Emergency budget
George Osborne has announced there will be no emergency budget in the wake of the UK's vote to leave the European Union last week.

The simple fact, is that our MPs are interested in burying their snouts, deep in the Westminster/Brussels trough(s) and not interested in taking responsibility for passing legislation themselves. After all, if it were truly those people who go to work in the Palace of Westminster - renovation costs, £4,000,000,000, how many hospitals would that little lot run? - who were properly held accountable for decisions affecting the populations' livelihoods, they might be a tad worried about being held to account.

As it is, they prefer to pervert justice, go to gaol, continue to be paid whilst in chokey, come out and straight back to claiming expenses. Read about Vicky Pryce (real name ‎Vasiliki Kourmouzi ) and how she has no regrets about taking tax-payer money to fund her book/'job' as Head of UK Government Economic Service. The scum-bag Chris Huhne, who now takes taxpayer money, lobbying for foreign manufacturers 'climate change' greed of increasing fuel bills through subsidies. He doesn't care that so many families struggle with fuel bills, because he has a big, fat, juicy pension, from his time as an MP/Govt. Minister.

Those of you who the think the likes of Juncker/Tusk/Verhofstadt are any different to the likes of Pryce, Huhne or Onasanya, are either being disingenuous, or seriously deluded.

And lo and behold even today Hammond is offering a “deal dividend” ..do what we want and there’s all this free cash ...they must think we have the memories of goldfish .

 

[dutchcherry]

Exactly. Look what George Osbornbe said would happen in the event of a 'Leave' majority :
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...ole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu
'George Osborne will warn that he would have to fill the £30bn black hole in public finances triggered by a vote to leave the European Union by hiking income tax, alcohol and petrol duties and making massive cuts to the NHS, schools and defence.

In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote.....'

EU referendum: Brexit 'would spark year-long recession' - Treasury
And did any of his dire predictions come to pass? No.

- unemployment

…a record number of Britons are now in work and more foreigners have jobs than before the referendum… Before the vote George Osborne claimed up to 820,000 jobs could be lost within two years if Britain chose to leave.”
More Britons are in work now than at any time since records began. In the first three months of this year about 32 million people over the age of 16 were in work.

Similarly the employment rate was also at its highest—around 76% of UK adults aged 16 to 64 were employed (or around 31 million).

Just before the referendum (from April-June 2016), the employment rate for people aged 16 to 64 was about 74%.

- UK economy grew
UK GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 was 0.4%. In the Eurozone it was 0.3%.

- Emergency budget
George Osborne has announced there will be no emergency budget in the wake of the UK's vote to leave the European Union last week.

The simple fact, is that our MPs are interested in burying their snouts, deep in the Westminster/Brussels trough(s) and not interested in taking responsibility for passing legislation themselves. After all, if it were truly those people who go to work in the Palace of Westminster - renovation costs, £4,000,000,000, how many hospitals would that little lot run? - who were properly held accountable for decisions affecting the populations' livelihoods, they might be a tad worried about being held to account.

As it is, they prefer to pervert justice, go to gaol, continue to be paid whilst in chokey, come out and straight back to claiming expenses. Read about Vicky Pryce (real name ‎Vasiliki Kourmouzi ) and how she has no regrets about taking tax-payer money to fund her book/'job' as Head of UK Government Economic Service. The scum-bag Chris Huhne, who now takes taxpayer money, lobbying for foreign manufacturers 'climate change' greed of increasing fuel bills through subsidies. He doesn't care that so many families struggle with fuel bills, because he has a big, fat, juicy pension, from his time as an MP/Govt. Minister.

Those of you who the think the likes of Juncker/Tusk/Verhofstadt are any different to the likes of Pryce, Huhne or Onasanya, are either being disingenuous, or seriously deluded.

'George Osborne will warn that he would have to fill the £30bn black hole in public finances triggered by a vote to leave the European Union

Morning of June 24th 2016, Mark Carney "Moreover, as a backstop, and to support the functioning of markets, the Bank of England stands ready to provide more than £250bn of additional funds through its normal facilities."

"A few months ago, the Bank judged that the risks around the referendum were the most significant, near-term domestic risks to financial stability.

To mitigate them, the Bank of England has put in place extensive contingency plans."

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/new...of-the-boe-following-the-eu-referendum-result

 

[rgb]

RGB, yes I agree she did wrong, did time and will eventually lose her job. On a human level she's been diagnosed with MS, so I do feel sorry for her.

Of course she has been. After all, it's not as if Ernest Saunders wasn't dreadfully ill with Alzheimer's disease when he was released from prison. Oddly, he made a full recovery from this incurable illness. Whodathunkit?

 

[dutchcherry]

ah, the old "but you were too stupid to understand the first time so we need a 2nd vote" argument.

I did not mean it like that. Back then there was genuine concern with the wording of the text. It was written like one lawyer would to another. It was not the issue that was complex, it was the way it was worded.

 

[redharry]

I did not mean it like that. Back then there was genuine concern with the wording of the text. It was written like one lawyer would to another. It was not the issue that was complex, it was the way it was worded.

Of course if the original vote had gone the other way even by a solitary vote the wording of the question would have been deemed by the EU to be well written and understandable.