Non Looking like a good scrap for the bottom 3

#21
Yeah, Rob, that's my thinking too. Plus, what makes anyone think we will fall completely apart???? Makes no sense. I understand an abundance of caution by some supporters, it cushions the blow should the worst happen. But, this is a season unlike the last three, and it should be enjoyed with optimism. Come May, our League position will be far from irrelevent.
 

AlGard

UTC Legend
#22
Previous seasons bottom 3 after 15 games.

17/18
Palace 10
WBA 10
Swansea 9

End of season safety. 34

16/17
Swansea 12
Hull 12
Sunderland 11

Safety. 35

15/16

Newcastle 13
Sunderland 12
Villa 6

Safety 38

So, total points amassed by the bottom 3 this season after 15 games is at it's lowest since we reached the PL.

Looking at 3rd bottom after 15 games and the safety points required, it seems fairly standard.
24, 23, and 25.

Averaging it out, 34 points would be a safety buffer with past trends.

And that's my statto bit for the season.
 

redharry

Fans' Favourite
#24
Previous seasons bottom 3 after 15 games.

17/18
Palace 10
WBA 10
Swansea 9

End of season safety. 34

16/17
Swansea 12
Hull 12
Sunderland 11

Safety. 35

15/16

Newcastle 13
Sunderland 12
Villa 6

Safety 38

So, total points amassed by the bottom 3 this season after 15 games is at it's lowest since we reached the PL.

Looking at 3rd bottom after 15 games and the safety points required, it seems fairly standard.
24, 23, and 25.

Averaging it out, 34 points would be a safety buffer with past trends.

And that's my statto bit for the season.
always makes me smile when people talk about a bounce in results when new manager comes in. Looking at those clubs listed almost all changed managers in those seasons and still got relegated.
 
#25
Teams are at the bottom usually because they cant score enough and/or let in too many goals.

Whats going to turn that round for the bottom teams ?
Usually a change of manager to put in fresh impetus as in the case of Fulham who have now got their first win in ages and a point last night.
 

AlGard

UTC Legend
#26
Previous seasons bottom 3 after 15 games.

17/18
Palace 10
WBA 10
Swansea 9

End of season safety. 34

16/17
Swansea 12
Hull 12
Sunderland 11

Safety. 35

15/16

Newcastle 13
Sunderland 12
Villa 6

Safety 38

So, total points amassed by the bottom 3 this season after 15 games is at it's lowest since we reached the PL.

Looking at 3rd bottom after 15 games and the safety points required, it seems fairly standard.
24, 23, and 25.

Averaging it out, 34 points would be a safety buffer with past trends.

And that's my statto bit for the season.

Further to this, I went back to 2001/02.
The biggest difference between 3rd bottom after 15 games and safety at the end of the season was 26 points.
 

redharry

Fans' Favourite
#27
Usually a change of manager to put in fresh impetus as in the case of Fulham who have now got their first win in ages and a point last night.
The vast majority of teams that get relegated change their managers during the season they go down, that is a fact - one notable exception being Dyche at Burnley. A change in manager sometimes puts fresh impetus into a team but it is usually very temporary. Just look at the teams that have got relegated over the years and you will see it is true.
As for Ranieri he has scrapped a lucky win against a very poor Southampton side and managed a draw against an under strength Leicester at home. hardly earth shattering
 
#28

redharry

Fans' Favourite
#29
There was an article a couple of seasons back talking about how it's just because managers get fired when a team is really really bad. Very few teams (hello Blackpool, Sunderland, Bolton et al) will stay bad forever. If you're on a poor run it will normally turn around eventually, no matter who's in charge

edit: found it https://www.fourfourtwo.com/features/soccernomics-does-sacking-manager-actually-make-difference
Remember reading that and it certainly is true. There are a couple of so called relegation beating managers Allardyce and Pulis but bad teams generally stay bad until they find a new level, change players and give the manager a fresh chance.
 

Kudos

Fans' Favourite
#30
...
The idea is to keep a large as possible points gap between us and the bottom three at all times.
...
LOL that's top punditry there! I'd say the idea is to have the largest possible number of points at the end of the season.

Our league position is irrelavant. It is the points gap that should be used as a yardstick.
That's not true, being 3 points from safety with 17 teams below you is better than being 3 points from safety with only 1 team below you.