Non - Pandemic

Boris was like Logan Paul trying to land a punch on Floyd Mayweather during PMQs.

Big flashy and full of distractions and razzmatazz but zero substance and offering nothing of note and this on such an important topic.
 
Boris was like Logan Paul trying to land a punch on Floyd Mayweather during PMQs.

Big flashy and full of distractions and razzmatazz but zero substance and offering nothing of note and this on such an important topic.

From the ones I have seen recently it’s all about point scoring.
 
A Nurses poem
9 JUN 2021

Remember the face behind the mask
Remember the nurse who stepped up to the task
Remember their eyes and all they have seen
Remember our nurses and where they have been
Remember the hands and the warmth of their touch
Remember the nurse who has witnessed too much
Remember the voices with words left unspoken
Remember our nurses with their minds now left broken
Remember the parents sending their children away
Remember the nurse who had little choice but to stay
Remember their fear when they were asked to be brave
Remember our nurses working with a foot in the grave
Remember the neighbour who was too exhausted to eat
Remember the nurse staring into the face of defeat
Remember the friend who is no longer the same
Remember our nurses left thinking they are to blame
Remember being told to stay home in your safe place
Remember the nurse being told to pick up the pace
Remember the nights tucked up safe in your bed
Remember our nurses on shift who were counting the dead

Remember the virus and the lives it has taken
Remember the nurse who is now left forsaken
Remember those days with your family at home
Remember our nurses at home on their own
Remember the pressure damage caused by PPE
Remember the nurse behind the mask now has PTSD
Remember the family holidays cancelled at a cost
Remember our nurses and the time off they have lost
Remember the families of all those heroes in blue
Remember the nurses who have died – saving you
Remember now whilst you are rebuilding your life
Remember the nurses lost were someone’s husband or wife
Remember the scenes of patients survived and leaving ITU
Remember the nurses lining corridors who stood clapping for you
Remember the photographs of families when finally reunited
Remember photographs of nurses and how they’ve only just survived it
Remember us as human beings that too have mouths to feed
Remember us as people who have our own lives to lead
Remember us as warriors who gave it all we’ve got
Remember the nurses lost and forget them we shall not
Remember the country being served with the upmost accord
Remember a governments’ promise of recognition and reward
Remember the nationwide applause that were weekly praised by Boris
Remember the day he served our nurses with another broken promise

Written by Niaomi Gordon
 
When you look at those charts carefully they are not as scary as some may think. The key axis in comparing the autumn wave with the current one is the timeline at the bottom. As an example in his top tweet the graph on daily hospital admissions in the North West actually shows a doubling after 30 days, in the autumn wave line it had gone up 7 fold in the same time - a huge difference. Granted the level of admissions seem to have picked up in the most recent days although local Bolton area health officials have downplayed it recently. When you add in the age breakdown you then quite clearly see the impact of the vaccines and how they are working, the other thing that is not on here is the length of stay in hospital and the severity of the illness for those in hospital i.e. the numbers on ventilation.
When I look at the national data of hospital admissions and total numbers in hospital on the government website l can't really see increases in exponential growth that he claims is becoming apparent across the country. When you look at national daily admissions they are running at about 130 per day (latest data 2 June), this is compared with 4,000 per day at the back end of last year and 3,000 per day in April 2020. The daily admission numbers are little changed since a month ago, certainly no doubling or tripling etc. Certainly it doesn't show that on his twitter graph either - case numbers up 40% from a very low base in 20 days is not exponential especially if you took the North West data out of those figures I bet it would show very slow growth in the rest of England.
When you also look at the total number of people in hospital it is 957 as at 6 June, this number has barely changed during May and June, and is actually lower than 4 weeks ago (1,299).
The national situation with people on ventilation is an increase of about 20 people compared to the average in May (148 compared to about 128).
I am not rubbishing what he has shown and he clearly recognises the impact of vaccines and age differences but sometimes a red line is not as scary as it may look. Time will tell. data is all below on a daily basis.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare

It does make me wonder how some apparent experts cherry pick to back up a scary forecast. As you have said, his graphs look a bit gloomy but as he missed very key details, such as length of time in hospital and who needed high level treatment, his posts are not really worthwhile.

I know it doesn't work like this in reality but we currently have about one covid patient per hospital in the UK.

Surely the only details the Govt should be looking at here, is how many cases turn into those needing hospital treatment and as all charts have been showing for a while now, its still a very low and manageable level. It would have all gone quite sharply up by now with the recent 'scariants'.

A friend of mine on Facebook says that although current levels are good, what if we open up and in a month things go sky high again? While I understand his wariness [ he works in a hospital ], I suggested if we went by that, we would never unlock. At some point - which I feel should be now - we need to use the vaccine success to get going again.
 
Really fail to see how someone can be accused of cherry picking data to back up a scary forecast and criticised for not including length of time in hospital.

The chart is real time admissions data, the people won’t have left hospital yet.

He’s using admission to show a trend on...admissions. It’s not a forecast, it’s not making a prediction, it’s a real time trend using the data available.
 
Really fail to see how someone can be accused of cherry picking data to back up a scary forecast and criticised for not including length of time in hospital.

The chart is real time admissions data, the people won’t have left hospital yet.

He’s using admission to show a trend on...admissions. It’s not a forecast, it’s not making a prediction, it’s a real time trend using the data available.

Burn-Murdoch has been brilliant throuout the pandemic and most certainly has not been guilty of cherry-picking evidence one way or another.
 
The last sentence wasn’t aimed at politicians though...

Hospitalisations are flat because new admissions are matching those leaving hospital one way or another.

Hospitalisations and deaths lag 2/3 weeks behind cases.

3 weeks ago daily cases were around 1,500-1,800 a day.

The experts then look at that, can look at the age groups and vaccinations of those testing positive and model what kind of numbers they’d be looking at for hospitalisations and deaths in comparison to now when it’s likely to be about 6,000 cases a day.

That’s why it matters, plus some of us would like our children to stay in school and that’s only going to happen without disruption if community levels of infection stay low. So if some common sense compromises allows that to happen then I’d be bemused why anyone would be against that.

 
Pot.

Kettle.

Oh give over. I look at all sides and form an opinion on the facts. Sometimes I do wonder if some people just want restrictions forever as they seem to nit pick even when there is all positive news coming out!

Here is another one I just saw - looks like across the UK, its around 8/10 people [ 7/10 in Scotland ] that have antobodies to covid in their system now. This doesn't include people in hospital or care homes but out and about in general life. This is very positive news!
 
Typical Sky News headline......if they stated that the UK had only six deaths, that is the big positive and most crucial aspect! She even stated 'six deaths' softly as if it wasn't the important bit. And no reporting of hospitalisations. These figures again show how vaccines have broken the link between cases and hospitalisations.

So this post is rubbished because it doesn’t including hospital admissions.

My previous post showing the trends of hospital admissions was rubbished.

I don’t need a graph to work out the trend here...
 

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