Non - Pandemic

Typical Sky News headline......if they stated that the UK had only six deaths, that is the big positive and most crucial aspect! She even stated 'six deaths' softly as if it wasn't the important bit. And no reporting of hospitalisations. These figures again show how vaccines have broken the link between cases and hospitalisations.
As you well know, theres a need to wait for the period where these hospitalisations do or dont turn into a higher death rate. I'm optimistic that things wont be as bad.

So your claim that the figures show the link is broken can't be proved just yet.
 
So this post is rubbished because it doesn’t including hospital admissions.

My previous post showing the trends of hospital admissions was rubbished.

I don’t need a graph to work out the trend here...

Yeah, I don't like Sky News much!
 
Oh give over. I look at all sides and form an opinion on the facts. Sometimes I do wonder if some people just want restrictions forever as they seem to nit pick even when there is all positive news coming out!

Here is another one I just saw - looks like across the UK, its around 8/10 people [ 7/10 in Scotland ] that have antobodies to covid in their system now. This doesn't include people in hospital or care homes but out and about in general life. This is very positive news!

If we’re talking facts let’s just throw a couple in shall we, for people you actually mean adults. It doesn’t include the under 18’s.

It’s also only inline with first doses, for the delta variant we know to break that cases to hospitalisations that you mentioned we need two doses and enough time for that to actually kick in. We’re at 50% of adults on second doses with a grey area of the proportion of those who are still building their immunity.

Wouldn’t want anyone to think you’re cherry picking your facts.
 
As you well know, theres a need to wait for the period where these hospitalisations do or dont turn into a higher death rate. I'm optimistic that things wont be as bad.

So your claim that the figures show the link is broken can't be proved just yet.

Rob, its been low for many weeks already, including when freedom marches were leapt upon by some for being 'super spreaders', when kids went back to school, when scariants appeared in areas and didn't lead to any real rises. And every day, more vaccines are being administered. So it can't go back up now surely.

I did see a link this afternoon from one expert that did suggest the link has already been broken but annoyingly I can't find it to share here!

One worrying claim on Twitter just now was from a hospitality boss, who has apparently been told ministers are now considering an open ended delay to the restrictions. Again, i don't like to consider conspiracies but when everyone can see the data allows full life to return, it really makes you wonder what is happening.
 
If we’re talking facts let’s just throw a couple in shall we, for people you actually mean adults. It doesn’t include the under 18’s.

It’s also only inline with first doses, for the delta variant we know to break that cases to hospitalisations that you mentioned we need two doses and enough time for that to actually kick in. We’re at 50% of adults on second doses with a grey area of the proportion of those who are still building their immunity.

Wouldn’t want anyone to think you’re cherry picking your facts.

I do apologise for not seeing every single fact that's out there DJ - but my views are based on seeing opinions and facts from all sides. Whatever I have seen and shared, doesn't remove the view that data proves we could reopen fully tomorrow though.
 
I do apologise for not seeing every single fact that's out there DJ - but my views are based on seeing opinions and facts from all sides. Whatever I have seen and shared, doesn't remove the view that data proves we could reopen fully tomorrow though.
It really doesn't but you choose to ignore anything that goes against what you feel.

I share your desire for a full reopening.
 
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One worrying claim on Twitter just now was from a hospitality boss, who has apparently been told ministers are now considering an open ended delay to the restrictions. Again, i don't like to consider conspiracies but when everyone can see the data allows full life to return, it really makes you wonder what is happening.

As explained before, unfortunately if this is allowed to see cases increase dramatically we are then moving into an area of big disruption for schools as high community infection is likely to see classes sent home to isolate and so forth.

Or does that not matter?
 
I do apologise for not seeing every single fact that's out there DJ - but my views are based on seeing opinions and facts from all sides. Whatever I have seen and shared, doesn't remove the view that data proves we could reopen fully tomorrow though.
Part of the problem that we all face is that we can look at data to back up what we want/believe to be true if we can. For your own reasons, you want all restrictions and masks removed so have challenged anything to the contrary (I'm not sure if it was you, but did you ask people to stop looking at what could happen and then shared a link saying that masks might have adverse reactions? Might not have been, there's a lot of posts here!) For me, I look at the rates going up so would prefer a more cautious approach to final lifting of restrictions. If that means we don't open everything up until we know how the increased infection rate is actually impacting, then so be it. For what it's worth, I want everything lifted but would rather we not rush it and have to go back at a later date. Something I suspect we will have to at some point, by the way, hope I'm wrong!
 
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Oh give over. I look at all sides and form an opinion on the facts. Sometimes I do wonder if some people just want restrictions forever as they seem to nit pick even when there is all positive news coming out!

Here is another one I just saw - looks like across the UK, its around 8/10 people [ 7/10 in Scotland ] that have antobodies to covid in their system now. This doesn't include people in hospital or care homes but out and about in general life. This is very positive news!
You certainly don’t form your opinion based on facts. You’ve been asked many times to provide proof of your claims (risking health of kids by vaccinating them, millions suffering with mental health due to mask wearing) but you never do, preferring instead to refer to something on Twitter or one claim from a discredited doctor. There is no assessment of both sides from you, you have your agenda and are sticking to it relentlessly.

I too want all restrictions lifted, but any danger of a significant number of people ending up in ICU must be assessed, quantified and judged first.
 
Rob, its been low for many weeks already, including when freedom marches were leapt upon by some for being 'super spreaders', when kids went back to school, when scariants appeared in areas and didn't lead to any real rises. And every day, more vaccines are being administered. So it can't go back up now surely.

I did see a link this afternoon from one expert that did suggest the link has already been broken but annoyingly I can't find it to share here!

One worrying claim on Twitter just now was from a hospitality boss, who has apparently been told ministers are now considering an open ended delay to the restrictions. Again, i don't like to consider conspiracies but when everyone can see the data allows full life to return, it really makes you wonder what is happening.

Just another reminder. Davygravy said all this stuff in December as he argued that no restrictions were required. He also said that those who were advocating caution due the the emergent Kent strain should have all of the suicide deaths on their conscience. Then he fucked off when events proved him spectacularly wrong.

I doubt any of us want these restrictions to continue for the sake of it but his completely one-sided take on things is tiresome in the extreme.
 
I do apologise for not seeing every single fact that's out there DJ - but my views are based on seeing opinions and facts from all sides. Whatever I have seen and shared, doesn't remove the view that data proves we could reopen fully tomorrow though.

What’s the data? Most cases since February today, hospital admissions increasing - ok deaths are low but I’d love to know what the data is you’re referring to?
 
Some more depressing data, which does include a forecast.

The thing about these straight line increases is that they are obviously unrealistic. That graph would have 50 million cases per day by October. Very soon after that, we would have to catch it twice a day.

As someone saliently pointed out on the thread, the Bolton cases stopped rising quite quickly. The reason being, quite possibly, that the virus ran out of suitable subjects to infect. Obviously we can't all catch the virus twice a day, so this rate of increase will eventually reach a ceiling where it must stop increasing. Until the graph-maker can estimate where the ceiling comes, it's a very limited graph.
 
The gov have decided it's safer for me to go for an 11 day piss up Spain first rather than come straight from Dubai. Will take me 18 days including from leaving Dubai to freedom in England. Planning to depart 1st July then leave England early September to come back, so at least a nice long stint since it'll probably be it for a year while these restrictions remain in place, plus a couple of games at DC hopefully.
 
The thing about these straight line increases is that they are obviously unrealistic. That graph would have 50 million cases per day by October. Very soon after that, we would have to catch it twice a day.

As someone saliently pointed out on the thread, the Bolton cases stopped rising quite quickly. The reason being, quite possibly, that the virus ran out of suitable subjects to infect. Obviously we can't all catch the virus twice a day, so this rate of increase will eventually reach a ceiling where it must stop increasing. Until the graph-maker can estimate where the ceiling comes, it's a very limited graph.

I’d imagine it’s limited to the beginning of July as that’s what the graph is actually only showing...
 
My wife is an intensive care nurse, and as such my opinion is possibly slightly swayed by the experience her and her colleagues went through during previous peaks - these people really are incredible in how they coped with the pressures placed on them.

Up until recently I was all for full opening up on 21st June, however feel a delay of 2/3 weeks might be prudent to prove out the increased case rates to hospitalisations to deaths ratios modelling, plus the benefit of the additional jabs that will take place in the meantime to provide additional protection upon fully opening up.
 

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