Stat Attack

Here’s the xG from Leeds. It ended 4-1, but it wasn’t that one-sided, in the same way that the W Ham game wasn’t a 4-0 defeat. Leeds started the brighter with two half chances for Roca (1 in 11) and Harrison (1 in 9) before we had a shot. Vina had an acrobatic shot (1 in 10) before AFCB went one up, Billing had a shot blocked (1 in 7) which fell to Lerma who used two defenders as a screen and bent it into Meslier’s top left corner (1 in 16). Four minutes later it was 2-0, Meslier flapping at a corner and prodding it to Lerma 8 yards out who smashed it home (1 in 2). Leeds pulled one back soon after, when Kelly was left with two to mark and Bamford, who Kelly had been marking headed in (2 in 5). At half time the xG was AFCB 0.89 Leeds 0.76. The second half started with quick chances Gnonto (1in 10), Christie (1 in 7) and Summerville (1 in 8) before Billing had a chance rated at 1 in 2, although the algorithm ignores the fact it was an overhead kick. Four minutes later it was 3-1 though, with Solanke running onto a deflected cross to finish (2 in 5). The game went flat for nearly 10 minutes before Leeds had 4 quick chances (all in the 72nd minute) with the best falling to Koch from a corner (1 in 8). These were Leeds’ last chances in the game. For a team fighting for their life against a team who had let leads slip this is worrying for the team from Yorkshire. AFCB finished stronger with Moore having a good headed chance (2 in 5) before Semenyo made it 4, after good work from Anthony, although Meslier will be very disappointed (1 in 20). The alternative source of xG had the game closer with AFCB 1.96 and Leeds 1.67.

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Billing (29) again played on the right side of centre, which had not noticeably happened prior to Southampton. There appeared to be more concentration of the players on the right hand side. Vina (18) and Billing came off in the 62nd minute being replaced by Moore (21) and Anthony (32). This appeared an attacking change as Anthony was further advanced than Vina, although the gap behind the full back could be covered with Kelly’s pace. In the 73rd minute (at 3-1 up) but following the glut of Leeds’ chances Cook (4) came on for Rothwell (14) and was deeper on average (although still set up Moore’s chance). In the 83rd minute we had a concussion substitution with Moore being replaced by Semenyo (24) whose average position was in front of Solanke (9). Solanke came off in the 89th minute with Jack Stacey (17) slotting in as full back and Anthony playing more left midfield.

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Senesi had the most touches of the ball with 69, followed by Lerma on 59. In the opposition half and final third Ouattara had most touches with 30 and 25 respectively.

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We had 26 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, with Ouattara having 10 of these.

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Lerma attempted most passes with 52, followed by Sensesi with 50. with both having a success rate greater than 80%. Of the starting 11 both Billing and Solanke had rates around 60%.

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Lerma (22) and Christie (19) made most passes in the opposition half with the Scot having a 79% completion rate.

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AFCB attempted 8 crosses, being successful with 2, 1 from Cook and 1 from Smith.

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Our players tried to take on a man 22 times, being successful 11 times. Senesi had a 100% record and the joint top number of attempts with 2.

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We created 7 chances (2 big) . Leeds created 12 chances with one big (the Bamford goal). Christie and Cook created the big chances.

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We had 12 attempts (four big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 7 times. Leeds had 15 attempts, 1 big, hitting the target six times.

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AFCB won 12 of 35 aerials duals which is a lower percentage (34%) than normal. Moore won 3 out of 4 and Kelly won 1 from 1.

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We made 37 tackles winning 24 with Ouattara winning 8 out of 12.

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For the second game in a row, Kelly had most defensive actions (17) although Senesi was close behind with 16. We made a low number of interceptions (6) one each for six players. Kelly made most recoveries (13) although Christie’s 12 is noticeable, Senesi made most clearances and made our only block.

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Here’s the xG from a tight Chelsea game which going into the last 15 minutes could have gone either way. The first big chance put Chelsea 1-0 up, Gallagher heading in, although there will be discussions between Lerma and Smith over who should have picked him up. The chance was rated 1 in 3. The first half saw few chances, but AFCB equalised following a brilliant free-flowing move that saw Cina cut back onto his right foot and curl one just inside the far post (1 in 20). At half time it was 1-1 with the xG being AFCB 0.24 Chelsea 0.65. The second half took a while to get going, with only half chances until the last 15 minutes, although they had been an AFCB penalty shout, ignored by the referee that VAR did not overturn. Live, it looked like Silva had made a good tackle, so I don’t blame the ref, but replays show he played Solanke’s foot. Technically it was a penalty, but there is a blurred line between technically, and ‘clear and obvious’. As the penalty was not given, there is no xG (0.8) boost. The games biggest chance came in the 79th minute. Lerma headed a corner back across goal for Ouattara who headed over (1 in 2). Three minutes later, we were behind, Badiashile escaping a marker to score from about 8 yards (1 in 2). In the final minutes Felix made it 3-1 (1 in 11) following a mazy Sterling run, where both Smith and Senesi went wide to the winger allowing Sterling to break through the centre. A disappointing result, but the performance wasn’t something to be downbeat about as on another day we could have won this game.

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The average positions show a near 2-4-3-1 formation. Surprisingly Smith (15) and Vina (18) have similar advancement as Vina’s attacking stats (more later) were so high. The changes were largely like for like: Anthony (32) playing where Christie (10) had and Semenyo (24) playing where Billing had (29) although Cook (4) played noticeably deeper than Rothwell (14). After the Cook for Rothwell substitution, we had the penalty shout and the Ouattara chance, so it wasn’t as though this swung the momentum.

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Senesi had the most touches of the ball with 58, followed by Vina on 57. In the opposition half and final third Vina had most touches with 26 and 22 respectively which is impressive for a left back.

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We had 25 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, with Ouattara and Vina having 6 each.

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Senesi attempted most passes with 44. The average completion rate was 75%, with the best performers being Cook (100%) and Rothwell (90%). Of the starting 11 all players had 65% completion rate or higher. Lerma and Christie made most passes in the opposition half (both 15) whilst Vina made most passes in the final third.

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AFCB attempted 14 crosses, being successful 4 times, twice from Ouattara and once from Christie and Cook.

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Our players tried to take on a man 16 times, being successful 8 times. Vina had a 100% record and joint top number of successes with 2.

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We created 10 chances (1 big) . Chelsea created 5 chances with two big (the first two goals). Lerma created our big chance for Ouattara.

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We had 10 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 4 times. Chelsea had 11 attempts, 2 big, hitting the target five times.

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AFCB won 11 of 22 aerials duals with Ouattara winning 4 from six.

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We made 31 tackles winning 16 with Ouattara and Kelly both winning 2 out of 3. A notable statistic was that Vina only won 1 of 7 tackles. There appears to be a trade off to be made in the Uruguayan’s attacking prowess and tackling ability.

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Senesi had most defensive actions with 15, Lerma was much further down the order than normal. Senesi made most interceptions (4) and made most recoveries (8). Kelly made most clearances (7) whilst Lerma made our only block. Vina made 5 recoveries and 4 clearances and had more defensive actions (9) than Smith (7) so the defensive shortcomings highlighted on the radio may be contained only to tackling.

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Matt, just out of interest, do any of the sites you use for this have data about xg against broken down in terms of open play, corners, free kicks etc. I'm intrigued to know whether we're genuinely as bad at defending set pieces as the raw numbers suggest, or whether it's skewed by the number of set pieces we actually have to defend and some sort of freakish finishing streak by the opposition.
 
Matt, just out of interest, do any of the sites you use for this have data about xg against broken down in terms of open play, corners, free kicks etc. I'm intrigued to know whether we're genuinely as bad at defending set pieces as the raw numbers suggest, or whether it's skewed by the number of set pieces we actually have to defend and some sort of freakish finishing streak by the opposition.

There’s definitely percentages by open play. I’ll have a dig about tomorrow and see what I can get
 
Here's my preliminary analyses of AFCB's defending of set pieces compared with other teams. I was surprised by the results. But don't shoot the messenger!

I looked at a few stats to see if AFCB are particularly poor at defending set pieces, or whether we notice our own errors more than those of other teams. All data are from Opta accessed via Fantasy Football Scout


The analyses (based on what data I could access) are

  • What percentage of corners result in chances from an attacking perspective?
  • What percentage of these chances result in goals?
  • What percentage of attempts come from set pieces from an attacking perspective?
  • What percentage of xG conceded are from set pieces?

The first graph shows that AFCB are slightly better than the majority of teams in creating chances from corners. Our percentage is 27% whereas the weighted average of the other teams is 25%

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