Stats 23/24

Matt Stevenson

First Team
Hi all,

I'm setting this thread up for all things statistical over the forthcoming season.

I'm intending to do the individual matches and timelines as last season. I've been delving around and there is likely to be individual xG and individual xA (expected assists) for each game too, to cause more discussion!

Lots of others contributed interesting stats last year, so please join in as I enjoyed them and if it is all in one thread the non-nerds won't get too irritated. :)

I'll be a bit late updating this for this weekend as I'm on holiday, but have also got tickets for the West Ham game!!! (Thanks for your help Rich)

UTCIAD

Matt
 
Any chance of getting the expected saves stats as well - can’t let Neto escape the steely analysis even if we do eventually just blame Neil Moss :)
 
As a preamble to the data, I’ve needed to change sources as Infogol is not currently working, so data for the xG timeline comes from understat, with all other stats taken from Opta data via Fantasy Football Scout. This means that the data on xG do not match up between the timeline and the individual stats. None of the data are my own, although I try and add some interpretation. If people disagree with the data, I can’t help much (unless I made an error copying them across!)
 
Here’s the xG from the W Ham game. It was a game of few chances, with Opta recording only 2 big chances, 1 for each team. We started brightly but with no threat on goal and survived a scare in the 18th minute when Soucek hit the post with the ball rebounded fortuitously back to Neto. (Rated nearly 3 in 5). West Ham controlled a lot of the first half and at half-time the xG was AFCB 0.07 W Ham 1.09. We went behind shortly after the restart, with Rothwell tackled after a heavy touch and a quick W Ham passing move saw the ball fall to Bowen a distance out who bent it into Neto’s top right corner. It was a very good finish from a touch chance (rated 1 in 33). We changed players putting on more attackers but W Ham were soaking up the pressure and at 80 minutes the xG was AFCB 0.53 W Ham 1.29, with the only real threat being a shot from a difficult angle for Solanke from close range which was saved for a corner (rated 1 in 4). The adventurous substitutions paid off when a scuffed shot from Semenyo clipped a West Ham player fell to Solanke who controlled it, went round the keeper for a tap-in. This produced the highest xG value I might have seen in an AFCB game in the last couple of years of 0.93. There were few chances after this, W Ham had seemed content to defend the lead (with an xG of 0.36 after the 50th minute, and maybe we were wary of throwing away the point we salvaged. A draw seemed a fair result and against a big David Moyes team we didn’t concede from a set piece, despite some nervy moments.

xG Timeline.JPG
 
The frontmen Solanke (9) and then Moore (21) and Semenyo (24) played higher than last year. Having seven men with average positions in the opponent’s half from memory was more than normal. Both Kirkez (3) and Aarons (37) played higher than the centre backs Zabarnyi (27) and Senesi (25). When Senesi came off injured Mepham (6) came on, playing on the right with Zabarnyi moving to the left. Rothwell (8), Christie (10) and Billing (29) had similar average positions with Brooks (7) being more advanced than Anthony (32). Anthony was replaced by Kluivert (19) when Senesi needed to be replaced, with Moore (21) coming on for Christie seven minutes later. Aarons (37) needing to come off (for Hill (23)) in the 75th minute meant that the last substitution window was used and Iraola put on Semenyo (24) instead of Brooks (7). Hill’s average position is very high for a full back.

Av Pos.JPG
 
Zarbanyi had over 100 touches and Senesi would have been approaching this if he stayed on for the full 90 minutes. Rothwell had 92. Rothwell had most touches in the opposition half and Solanke and Brooks had most touches in the final third.

Touches.JPG


We had 23 touches in the opposition’s penalty area, Solanke having 12 of these followed by Billing with 5.

Pen Area Touches.JPG
 
Zabarnyi attempted 96 passes, followed by Rothwell on 69 and Senesi with 51.Rothwell made most in the opposition half and final third. We appeared to be going more direct at times, with no starting player having over a 90% completion rate. Of these, Aarons at 89% was highest followed by Rothwell and Billing, both 88%.

All Passes.JPG

Passes Opp Half.JPG
 
AFCB attempted 23 crosses, being successful with only 2 (one from Billing and one from Kerkez). This was significantly less successful than last season, although crosses were never likely to be the best approach against a towering W Ham team.

Crossing.JPG

Our players tried to take on a man 24 times, being successful 10 times. Rothwell tried the most (5) being successful twice, no player was always successful having tried more than once.

Take Ons.JPG
 
We created 9 chances (none big – the deflection must have meant Semenyo’s scuffed shot didn’t count). W Ham created 13 chances with one big.

Chances Created.JPG
We had 14 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 5 times. W Ham had 16 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target twice.

Attempts.JPG
 
Senesi and Rothwell had most defensive actions with 12, with Senesi only playing 60 minutes. Billing made most interceptions, Rothwell made most recoveries, Kerkez and Senesi made most clearances and five players each made 1 block.

IRCB.JPG

AFCB only made one error leading to a shooting chance which was the poor attempted clearance by Mepham late on. Opta doesn’t include Rothwell getting tackled as an error, although his first touch was heavy, and many would have thought this was an error leading to a goal

Errors.JPG
.
 
Anthony gave away most fouls whilst Christie and Kerkez were our most fouled players. It did seem as though the ref was more lenient on physical tussles – I managed to get to the match – and it felt that last season Zabarnyi would have been penalised far more often when tussling with Antonio.

Fouls.JPG
 
The expected assists show that as Semenyo’s shot that found Solanke was not counted we didn’t create much (Solanke having the highest value). Solanke had a much higher xG value than the rest of the team having rounded the keeper.

xG and xA.JPG

AFCB had an xGc (expected goals conceded of 1.07) and only let in 1, so did marginally better than expected, although Neto only made one save all game.
 
Prior to the normal rundown tomorrow, I thought I'd start following another stat which is the number of points compared to the same games last season. A positive number is good, a negative one bad.

Currently we are at +1

We got 1 point against W Ham at home, compared with zero last year (so +1)
We got 0 points at Liverpool, the same as last year (so +0)

For the promoted / relegated teams I'll swap them according to their end of season positions, so Burnley will take Leicester's place, Shef U Leeds' place and Luton Southampton's place

This will be a simplistic Alt-3 analysis that will give a crude idea of how we are doing compared with last season and may stop early panic.

As a spoiler, we will be positive for some time given the difficult run of fixtures.
 

;