Stats 23/24

Not getting a point from Brentford leaves us 9 to the good against this 40-point pace:

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The latest Opta season simulation still gives us about a 10% chance of finishing 10th. Our present Opta global power rank is 61. Fulham are 59th, Everton 57th.
 
Here is the xG from the Brentford game. Despite Brentford having earlier pressure the first half chance fell to AFCB with Solanke missing the target from within the six-yard box (rated 1 in 8). Just after the half-hour Brentford had two chances that levelled the xG, with Toney (1 in 13) and Mbeumo (1 in 7) both having shots blocked. Before this however, Solanke had a goal ruled out, for a handball by Semenyo earlier in the move. Solanke still had a lot to do, but the ball had definitely struck Semenyo’s arm. I’m not sure the rules are consistently applied regarding fouls in the build-up and whether defences are set but you can see why it was disallowed. In the 37th minute there was another contentious decision that didn’t go AFCB’s way. The ref blew for a foul by Solanke just before the ball went into the net, meaning that the decision couldn’t be reviewed by VAR. Flekken would have made more of an attempt to save it, although looked wrong-footed, but we won’t know as the ref had blown. Neither disallowed goal appears on the xG. At half time the xG was AFCB 0.36, Brentford 0.29 in a game that appears tame apart from the disallowed goals. The second half was similar although Brentford had 3 quick chances in 3 minutes the best two from Lewis-Potter (1 in 9) and Pinnock (1 in 7). Bournemouth then responded with two efforts (both 1 in 16) and both from Solanke. Shortly after Brentford were awarded a penalty, although when reviewed by VAR it was clear that Toney had dived rather than shooting from a good position. Then the game almost hibernated, apart for approximately 15 minutes before Brentford opened the scoring in route one fashion. Flekken kicked it long to Wissa, who played an excellent first-time pass to Mbeumo who smashed it past Travers (1 in 3). Three minutes later AFCB were level, Senesi crossing it in and Solanke finding the top corner with an excellent header (1 in 11). But the scoring wasn’t over, Mbeumo broke and then slowed it down to find Wissa who had made a clever run and then hit a fierce shot into the near top corner (1 in 9) which was the last chance of the game. The final xG was AFCB 0.67, Brentford 1.08; the xGs produced by Understat had a wider margin of victory being AFCB 1.07, Brentford 1.93. Although xG doesn’t tell the full story.

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The average positions of our outfield starting players can almost be grouped in 6 and 4. Both Cook (4) and Christie (10) were as similar advanced as the centre backs, Senesi (25) and Zabarnyi (27) with the full backs slightly deeper. Ouattara (11) appears central as he and Semenyo (24) swapped wings at half time, with Solanke (9) and Kluivert (19) both high, but with Kluivert drifting to the left. The first set of changes was in the 67th minute with Tavernier (16) and Unal (26) replacing Ouattara and Kluivert, with Tavernier playing high on the left and Unal more centrally. In the 80th minute, Smith (15) and Christie were replaced by Scott (14) and Adams (18) with presumably Cook switching to right back as AFCB chased a win, although got caught twice on the counter.

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Cook had most touches with 68. Semenyo had most touches in the opposition half (45) and in the final third with 34.

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We had 30 touches in the opposition’s penalty area with both Semenyo and Solanke having 8.

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Cook attempted 54 passes, with Senesi making 47. Cook attempted most in the opposition half (32) and with Semenyo most in the final third with 22. AFCB averaged 78% completion, although from the starting eleven only Smith was over 85%.

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AFCB attempted 11 crosses being successful with 3 (2 from Senesi – including the cross for the goal and one from Cook).

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Our players tried to take on a man 16 times being successful 9 times. Semenyo had the most successful attempts (2) from the most attempts (4)

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We created 11 chances (none big). Brentford created 12 chances with two big.

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We had 13 attempts (none big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 4 times. Brentford had 11 attempts, 4 big, and hit the target 4 times.

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Senesi made most defensive actions with 15. Kelly and Senesi made joint most interceptions (3), Christie and Cook made joint most recoveries (9), Senesi most clearances (5) and Christie and Kelly made 2 blocks each.

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According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to shots on goal.

The foul count was AFCB 16, Brentford 12. Cook made 4 fouls with Scott who came on in the 80th minute being fouled three times.

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The Opta expected goals showed Solanke to be highest with 0.35 with Ouattara and Semenyo the only other players to reach double figures. Senesi had the highest xA with 0.21 with Kluivert and Cook the only other players to reach double figures.

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I know they wouldn't be included in the official tally but I'm guessing there's no individual xG values provided for the disallowed goals?
 
I know they wouldn't be included in the official tally but I'm guessing there's no individual xG values provided for the disallowed goals?
Not that I'm aware of. You could guess, but then people would moan at the guesses. :)

I think Solanke's first one was a very good finish, so maybe 1 in 10, his second one was easier, but we'd never know if Flekken would have made a better attempt so i can't put a number on it.
 
The average positions of our outfield starting players can almost be grouped in 6 and 4. Both Cook (4) and Christie (10) were as similar advanced as the centre backs, Senesi (25) and Zabarnyi (27) with the full backs slightly deeper. Ouattara (11) appears central as he and Semenyo (24) swapped wings at half time, with Solanke (9) and Kluivert (19) both high, but with Kluivert drifting to the left. The first set of changes was in the 67th minute with Tavernier (16) and Unal (26) replacing Ouattara and Kluivert, with Tavernier playing high on the left and Unal more centrally. In the 80th minute, Smith (15) and Christie were replaced by Scott (14) and Adams (18) with presumably Cook switching to right back as AFCB chased a win, although got caught twice on the counter.

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I must admit, the shape of the back four doesn’t really correlate with the average positions.

Just shows how highly it’s skewed by the man to man marking that Zabarnyi and Senesi do at times, tracking forward and racing back.

This was what was very evident that we were missing when Mepham had to drop back into the side. We need both centre backs doing this or we switch tactics and don’t do it at all. When we don’t do it, we lose a lot of our intensity.
 
Here is the xG timeline for the Chelsea game. Chelsea started brightly with Palmer shooting off-target in the second minute (rated 1 in 10) but despite Chelsea pressure and domination of the ball, AFCB had four chances rated approximately 1 in 10 in the first 25 minutes from Semenyo, Senesi, Unal and Christie, which seemed lost on Alan Smith doing co-commentary. However, at that point we were 1-0 down to the longest goal in the Premier League for 7 years. Neto did well to come and beat Sterling to the ball but took a heavy touch under pressure with the ball landing to Caicedo just inside our half where he scored passed a retreating Senesi (rated 1 in 25). Both teams had one more reasonable chance before the interval, Tavernier for the Cherries (1 in 10) and Jackson for Chelsea, (1 in 7). At the break, the xG was Chelsea 0.51, AFCB 0.63. The second half started eventfully with what was rated a very high chance for Unal (about 1 in 2) which was fired towards him after a Cook shot. Chelsea then attacked at pace down the left side with Aarons outpaced and then tricked by Sterling who squeezed a shot through Neto’s legs to put Chelsea 2-0 up (rated 18%). AFCB immediately hit back, with Kerkez finding Unal whose shot (1 in 13) was heading wide but deflected in off Badiashile. Four minutes later, Semenyo had a chance (1 in 12) before the game settled down and only coming to life again late on in injury time. First Neto did well to tip a Gallagher shot over (1 in 5) then AFCB broke from the corner with Ouattara having a shot (1 in 6) pushed away by Petrovic with Gallagher making a goal saving block for Christie’s follow-up (27%) but the ball rebounded to Solanke who knowing he had to lift it to beat the keeper also put it over the bar (44%). The point would have bene deserved with the final xG being Chelsea 1.14, AFCB 2.22. Understat had Bournemouth in front, but by a smaller margin at 1.60 vs 2.00.

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The team was attacking with the majority of players having average positions in Chelsea’s half. The full backs of Kerkez (3) and Aarons (37) was nearly as high as Cook (4) and Christie (10) with only Zabarnyi (27) holding back. Just before the hour, Solanke (9) and Ouattara (11) came on for Tavernier (16) and Kluivert (19) the Dutchman having been the furthest forward attacker. Tavernier’s and Semenyo’s (24) positions show that wings were being swapped, although Ouattara played more on the right when he came on. In the 69th minute Scott (14) and Philip (29) came on for Unal (26) and Aarons (37) with Cook switching to right-back and Philip moving into a withdrawn 10 role, with Solanke now playing as the main striker. In the 84th minute Senesi (who had been booked was replaced by Kelly in a straight swap at centre back, although Kelly was more withdrawn.

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Senesi had most touches in total (63) ahead of Christie (58). Semenyo had the highest number of touches in both the opposition half (44) and in the final third with 32.



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AFCB had 40 touches in the opposition’s penalty area. Semenyo had the most (11) followed by Unal with 6. This was the fourth highest number of touches in the opponent’s penalty area after Shef Utd home (75), Fulham away (57) and Wolves away (43)

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Senesi and Zabarnyi attempted most passes with 40, Semenyo attempted most in the opposition’s half (24) and in the final third with 16. We averaged 82% completion with three outfield players having values over 90% (Kluivert, Tavernier and Aarons).

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AFCB attempted 20 crosses, being successful with six (Kerkez was successful with 2 from 3).

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Our players tried to take on a man 22 times being successful 8 times. Semenyo attempted the highest number 6 and had the most successes 4.

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AFCB created 17 chances (1 big).. Chelsea created 14 chances, one big.



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We had 22 attempts (2 big for Unal and Solanke) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target five times. Chelsea had 16 attempts, 2 big, and hit the target 6 times.

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