The Countdown to Game 38

Toronto John said:
AFCB (49)-Palace(43) - Feels like a must-win for us to stay in the mix, and would effectively take Palace out of the running.
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I do hope Palace lose, but surely they're more focused on winning the UEFA Conference League (they're in the semi finals)?
The need to beat Shakhtar Donetsk, and then either Strasbourg or Iraola's old club (Vallecano).

Here are the Opta global rankings for the clubs Palace may have to play:
Shakhtar Donetsk - 141st
Strasbourg - 57th
Rayo Vallecano - 93rd

On the other hand, they have to play:
Everton - 24th
Brentford - 20th
Arsenal - 2nd
Man City - 3rd

One path is a lot easier.
 
For me the next 2 games we need to be Palace at home and then not lose at Fulham. Doing this would put us in a good position for the top 8.
 
Toronto John said:
Now only 4 games to go, and the scoreboard watching continues. 7 teams within 4 points for sixth place and and an eighth team that is six-points out with a game in hand.
Teams in that 8 pack in bold for week 35.
Newcastle-Brighton(50) - can Eddie's team do us a solid?
AFCB (49)-Palace(43) - Feels like a must-win for us to stay in the mix, and would effectively take Palace out of the running.
Brentford(48)-West Ham - the Hammers fight for safety makes them dangerous.
Chelsea(48)-Forest - does Chelsea get a new manager bounce or does Forest get over the 40 point line?
Arsenal-Fulham(48) - tall order for Fulham.
Everton(47)-Man City - ditto for Everton.
Wolves-Sunderland(46) - Sunderland stays in the hunt with a win expected.

Remaining games after the weekend:
Brighton - Wolves, Leeds, Man United - 6-7 points?
AFCB - Fulham, Man City, Forest - not easy.
Brentford - Man City, Palace, Liverpool - tough.
Chelsea - Liverpool, Spurs, Sunderland - middling.
Fulham - AFCB, Wolves, Newcastle - huge six-pointer with the Cherries.
Everton - Palace, Sunderland, Spurs - points to be had.
Sunderland - Man United, Everton, Chelsea - also not easy.
Palace - if still in the hunt .... Everton, Brentford, Arsenal, Man City - ouch.

Still so close.
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The last 2 weeks other teams results have been very favourable to us. This week I think it will be different, we really need the 3 points against Palace to keep our noses in front of the pack.
Any favours this weekend from West ham, Newcastle, Forest and Wolves would be welcome.
 
Simples really...win all our games and CL football will probably be ours?
Win three of the four and Europa League should be ours?

Anything else leaves us to sweat on others results?
 
If you had said with 4 games to go all we had to do is match any side below us to guarantee European football, and get 2 more points than BHA in those 4 games to guarantee Europa Cup and maybe CL, people would have said that would never happen.

We're doing it this time, I reckon 3 wins will do the former and maybe even the latter
 
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I know this is now dealing in the realms of the unlikely but it doesn't hurt to dream... Win our last three and we're on 61 points.

Final fixtures of the season for the two teams six points ahead of us are:

Villa
Bunley (a)
Liverpool (h)
Man City (a)

Liverpool
Chelsea (h)
Villa (a)
Brentford (h)

With those fixtures, it isn't impossible that one of them also ends on 61 points. Villa, in particular, would be vulnerable given their goal difference along with the possible distraction of a European final.

If we all win our next fixture, I wonder if we'll see them play out a Germany v Austria 1982 style match where they both get the result they need? This time a draw.
 
kirsikka said:
I know this is now dealing in the realms of the unlikely but it doesn't hurt to dream... Win our last three and we're on 61 points.

Final fixtures of the season for the two teams six points ahead of us are:

Villa
Bunley (a)
Liverpool (h)
Man City (a)

Liverpool
Chelsea (h)
Villa (a)
Brentford (h)

With those fixtures, it isn't impossible that one of them also ends on 61 points. Villa, in particular, would be vulnerable given their goal difference along with the possible distraction of a European final.

If we all win our next fixture, I wonder if we'll see them play out a Germany v Austria 1982 style match where they both get the result they need? This time a draw.
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Villa should beat Burnley so it might come down to GD. Our priority thou should be trying to get as many points as possible and finishing 6th starting with Fulham.
 
Now only 3 games to go, and sole possession of 6th place. Technically, the only scoreboard that we need to watch is our own, but for the heck of it ...

7 teams within 5 points for sixth place. Palace is jettisoned at this stage.

Teams in that 7 pack in bold for week 36.
Fulham(48) - AFCB(52) ..... huge 6-pointer to eliminate Fulham.
Man City - Brentford(51) .... Man City no longer in control.
Brighton(50) - Wolves .... surely a win for the Seagulls?
Liverpool - Chelsea(48) ........ Chelsea must be due, no?
Palace - Everton(48) ...... Palace rests everyone after securing Conference League final.
Sunderland(47)-ManU .... a motivated opponent and no Ballard.

Remaining games after the weekend:
Brighton - Leeds, Man United
AFCB - Man City, Forest
Brentford - Palace, Liverpool
Chelsea - Spurs, Sunderland
Fulham - Wolves, Newcastle
Everton - Sunderland, Spurs
Sunderland - Everton, Chelsea

In our own control, a win at Craven Cottage would further cull the pack.
 
So 2 wins guarantees us at least 8th.
This is our highest finish ever but does 8th guarantee European football, or what does it take?

I can’t be bothered reading all the permutation articles that are out there.
 
markafcb said:
Need Man City to win fa cup to drop down to 8th place
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Thanks!
The only downside being that I may now have to stay up and watch the cup final now.

Having been glued to the TV all day as a kid, I’m not sure I’ve bothered for at least the last 10 years as it feels so devalued now.
 
We can only do what we need to....simply if we take 7 points from 9 I think we are as good as in the Euro mix!
 
Still some midweek scoreboard watching to come. We should be all in on Villa beating Forest tomorrow night because...

a) Villa winning the Europa has the potential to open up 6th place to a Champions League spot
b) Villa getting to the Europa final could possibly distract them in the league and two of their last three fixtures look tough. There's a very small chance we could catch them if they lost two of those three
c) Forest stole that place from Palace and shouldn't even be there
d) Forest's owner is an unlikeable loose cannon and might do something funny if they lose
e) It's Forest
 
The only good thing about Forest qualifying would be that they will have a trip to Turkey for the final 4 days before they play us.
 
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