The run in fixtures

And from a different source - Championship Predictions | FiveThirtyEight

We are estimated to come in 6th 3 points clear of Reading, although confusingly they also show a 51% chance of finishing 5th or higher! (I'm presuming this is caused by averages vs a skewed distribution).

Only an 21% chance we don't make the Top 6.

Although naturally these things will look more unfavourable if we don't win today.

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northstandmark said:
Shame it's taken us 2 years to figure out what Billings' best position is! :slap:
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Was always surprised that we didn’t utilise him in this unorthodox number 10 role after Howe played him there against Manchester City last season.

He was excellent that game, caused them problems, gave us an aerial outlet and was one of those times that Howe really showed he could out think the best of them.

Then he never played there again.
 
The chasing pack mostly slipped to walking pace today:

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With two mid-week fixtures to come:

13/04 Huddersfield AFCB
13/04 Sheff Wed Swansea
 
Toronto John said:
Four of our last six are v. teams in the top twelve, so Hudds is a big one.
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Ironically hitherto we have done better against top 12 than bottom half. Hopefully the new JW mentality won’t be at the expense of this record.

Glad to avoid the bottom sides as this is always a banana skin. I think wycombe are down before they play us if they lose 2 of the next 3 vs Swansea and Cardiff away and Bristol home even if Coventry get no points. If Coventry pick up a win they would need at least two wins to have any chance.

Coventry have Rotherham next and then Barnsley so hopefully they will scrap vs Barnsley as they are “home”
 
The maximum number of points that the chasing pack can achieve, assuming they win all their matches is as follows:

Cardiff 74
Millwall 73
Middlesbrough 72
QPR 71
Luton 71

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One more win for us and, given their inferior goal differences, that just about rules all of them out of catching us.

As long as we simply match Reading's results, we can look forward to our season extending beyond the 8th of May. The biscuits must win two more than us to catch up as our 15 goal advantage we will otherwise see them off.

Comparing our fixtures:

16/04 Reading - Cardiff
17/04 Norwich - AFCB

21/04 Millwall - AFCB
21/04 Luton - Reading

24/04 AFCB - Brentford
25/04 Reading - Swansea

01/05 Norwich - Reading
01/05 Wycombe - AFCB

08/05 AFCB - Stoke
08/05 Reading - Huddersfield
 
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Gives us a bit of insurance if we drop a few points vs Norwich and Brentford.

However still very tight if reading go on a run - which they are capable of doing. If reading win the next three and we have a very possible scenario of lose at Norwich, win at millwall and draw with Brentford then we end up level on 75 with two games left.

Fortunately our GD is better. My result by result predictor a while back had both reading and us on 78 points with us having better GD. That would be tense!
 
AFCBade said:
Gives us a bit of insurance if we drop a few points vs Norwich and Brentford.

However still very tight if reading go on a run - which they are capable of doing. If reading win the next three and we have a very possible scenario of lose at Norwich, win at millwall and draw with Brentford then we end up level on 75 with two games left.

Fortunately our GD is better. My result by result predictor a while back had both reading and us on 78 points with us having better GD. That would be tense!
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Yes, it's still far from over. Reading could still take our place.

For me the most important thing is the style in which we (hopefully) get over the line. If we reach the playoffs after an unbeaten or at least continued decent run and in good form, we can view the playoff games with some optimism. If we just scrape into the playoffs with inconsistent performances, perhaps just by goal difference, then I wouldn't be viewing the playoffs with too much optimism.

Obviously we have some tough games ahead and our run of victories is likely to end. But if we could at least enter the playoffs on a decent run, perhaps not undefeated but at least playing well, then we would have cause for hope.

I'd like to see us secure the playoffs in style and go into them full of confidence, ideally.
 
Probably fuelled by my Watford dislike and mostly in hope I placed a cheeky couple of quid for us to be top 2. Probably won’t see that money again but one can dream.
 
N19 said:
Probably fuelled by my Watford dislike and mostly in hope I placed a cheeky couple of quid for us to be top 2. Probably won’t see that money again but one can dream.
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I think if it’s not us it will be Brentford as they have a game in hand and us to play but you as well.
 
Mark WFC said:
I think if it’s not us it will be Brentford as they have a game in hand and us to play but you as well.
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Can’t see us overtaking Watford or Brentford.

My money is still on Watford but I think I this depends on their away form. Watford’s home form is decent but only 2 of the 5 left are at home with tough looking away games at Luton (derby match) Norwich and Brentford.
 
The only teams, except the biscuits, with their points totals, who can catch us assuming they win all their matches and we lose all of ours is now as follows:

Cardiff 72
Millwall 71
QPR 71
Luton 71

The chances of any of them catching us, though, is extremely unlikely. The biscuits are the only remaining threat to us gaining a playoff place.
 
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