The verdict

Matt Stevenson said:
:D. That's why you shouldn't be putting too much weight in them being accurate, it is a rough estimate at best, one site says 0.71 vs 1.10 and the other 0.47 vs 1.35, so it might be 0.6 vs 1.2.

@richnrg, does xG_data compile these plots automatically? If so, I'll save myself 10 mins each game!
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@Matt Stevenson. I guess so. It just popped up on my Twitter timeline (I'm not an expert on such things!).
xG Data on Twitter: "Expected Goals Timelines for Wednesday's games in the Championship (2/2) Fulham v Derby Millwall v Bournemouth QPR v Huddersfield #EFL | #SkyBetChampionship #FFC v #DCFC | #Millwall v #afcb | #QPR v #htafc https://t.co/sCrLfnUzcB" / Twitter

xG Data (@xG_data) / Twitter
 
Teams that drop less points against other teAms than all the other teams often get promoted.

Yeah disappointing last night but it seems that other sides are missing the opportunity to catch up on us. And for all this creaming over Fulham they are only one point above us with nearly half the season gone.

So overall, we’re in a good place I feel.
 
 
Matt Stevenson said:
Following on, here is the xG timeline. I like the way it shows the ebb and flow of chances, although because Lerma made a brilliant interception, it doesn't show on xG, or shots on goal, clear chances etc, but if Lerma hadn't have got the touch I was expecting us to be 2-1 down.

The game was fairly scrappy, as times it reminded me of kids' football with people charging forward but without real quality (the first 20 mins had only one attempt from either side). Only 2 chances were rated above 1 in 10 in the game, which were the goals. (about 2 in 3 for Dom's goal and 2 in 5 for Afobe). We had another 30 min spell in the second half where we didn't have an attempt, which is concerning. I was willing the ref to blow for the last 15 mins based on the pressure we were under (although this wasn't translated into clear chances)

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Hi Matt. Does the calculation on chance come from a statistical analysis of proximity to goal, amount of people around etc or is it a human intervention where someone looks at it and makes a judgement? Interested to find out. You may not know this, I know you don’t work for them!
 
Neil Dawson said:
Hi Matt. Does the calculation on chance come from a statistical analysis of proximity to goal, amount of people around etc or is it a human intervention where someone looks at it and makes a judgement? Interested to find out. You may not know this, I know you don’t work for them!
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This vid is probably the quickest description.

WHAT IS EXPECTED GOALS? USE xG TO INCREASE PROFITS IN FOOTBALL BETTING - Bing video

That said, to answer it quickly, there has been a database created where variables are recorded, these include: distance from goal, positioning of the player and defenders / keeper, whether it is a header or shot. Obviously there will be errors and subjectivity in inputting the values into the database. The boffins would then calculate a statistical model that best fits this data, and this is used to work out for a given situation the chances of scoring. Of course, putting the variables in for each chance is subjective. So it is a statistical approach, that is uncertain due to subjective in deriving the formula and then in assessing the current attempt.

The easiest one to comprehend is a penalty which is about 0.77 - that just says that of the 1000 penalties they have recorded 770 were scored. There is the limitation that deadly strikers (Danjuma was one) outperform their xG by simply being better players.

So I take it with a pinch of salt, but I think it is fair to say that teams with a high xG, and a low xG against will tend to be at the top of the league.

I now realise I didn't answer that quickly at all. :)
 
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Matt Stevenson said:
Following on, here is the xG timeline. I like the way it shows the ebb and flow of chances, although because Lerma made a brilliant interception, it doesn't show on xG, or shots on goal, clear chances etc, but if Lerma hadn't have got the touch I was expecting us to be 2-1 down.

The game was fairly scrappy, as times it reminded me of kids' football with people charging forward but without real quality (the first 20 mins had only one attempt from either side). Only 2 chances were rated above 1 in 10 in the game, which were the goals. (about 2 in 3 for Dom's goal and 2 in 5 for Afobe). We had another 30 min spell in the second half where we didn't have an attempt, which is concerning. I was willing the ref to blow for the last 15 mins based on the pressure we were under (although this wasn't translated into clear chances)

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Does that neat interplay between Christie and Don early in the second half feature here? Felt like a great move but he just couldn't/didn't get a shot away.

It was a very tough game but I thought it was there for the taking if we'd have made better decisions in the final third in the periods we were on top.
 
SlowDownDerek said:
Does that neat interplay between Christie and Don early in the second half feature here? Felt like a great move but he just couldn't/didn't get a shot away.

It was a very tough game but I thought it was there for the taking if we'd have made better decisions in the final third in the periods we were on top.
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Yes, although it was rated as 1 in 16, I guess because of the fact that the defender was in a good position to block a shot going across goal (as he did), and the keeper had the near post covered. The worst thing about that was from the angle on AFCB live, I thought the ball was arrowing into the far corner only to realise a split second later it was heading out for a throw.:confused:

I'm in the camp that it was a good point, against a tough team. Going into this round of fixtures and getting the same number of points as Fulham, W Brom and Coventry whilst having arguable the hardest fixture is a plus.
 
Waz afcb said:
My mistake, thought it was Blackburn on Saturday. The points total is very good, the performances on a whole have been average and warrant around a mid table standing. XG backs this up.
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So you are the absolute oracle on all things AFCB and you thought we were playing Blackburn on Saturday??????????????????????
 
RobTrent said:
Teams that drop less points against other teAms than all the other teams often get promoted.

Yeah disappointing last night but it seems that other sides are missing the opportunity to catch up on us. And for all this creaming over Fulham they are only one point above us with nearly half the season gone.

So overall, we’re in a good place I feel.
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Very true. It's clear that we're currently in the midst of a bit of an injury crisis and Parker is trying to make the best out of the players he has available. There is a fair bit of enforced experimentation currently going on and for all that we are not in the midst of a losing streak. We're just in a bit of a sticky patch at the moment and trying to cope and still fighting hard. Hopefully SP will find solutions and we'll improve again. Also the players will hopefully start to better understand their new roles. It's at times like these that a manager earns his wages, not necessarily when everything is going swimmingly.

We're staying in the fight for automatic promotion in a tricky spell. The chances are that other teams will experience similar tricky spells in the future ( or perhaps they already are ? ).

However, given time I'm confident that we will improve, whether the injured players come back or not. It will just take a while to come up with the right solutions. During that time it's important to keep collecting valuable points like last night's and to avoid the team slipping into a defeatist mentality.

:utc:
 
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We aren't playing well at the moment compared to a few games ago, stating the obvious I know. We are missing JZ, Kelly and an in-form Billing.

If this is our sticky patch and we still draw at Millwall then fair enough!

As others have said, this is where SP earns his money. Let's see how we get on against Coventry.
 
There is just one simple fact. the teams below us have to get at least 8 points more than us over the remainder of the season. We have breathing space while in an injury crisis. It will improve.
Taken another way on results to date WBA are on course for 80 points this season which means that if things continue as they are we need to get 40 more points from 27 games to finish above them - thats 1.5 points per game.
Will it pan out like that who knows but that is the RH analysis.
 
From my view watching the game behind the goal, Millwall were extremely well organised, and knew to push players out wide to mark our wingers. They pressed well, and made it very hard for us.
I can see why they're hard to beat, albeit not prolific in scoring themselves. Afobe scored but did very little the rest of the game.
Ref was poor for both teams, kilkenny was a harsh booking given there were worse challenges that went unpunished.
 
Neil Dawson said:
One encouraging sign for me is that we are clearly in a sticky spell but got a draw last night and should have got a draw Saturday. Normally at your lowest you take a few clear defeats by a couple goals or more.

That said since the second half v Derby our pattern and shape seems to have gone. Only a short period I know but still a concern. Kelly and Billing will make a difference to that if we can get them back for Fulham and I think we need Smithy in one of the two full back positions. Don’t know if he is carrying a knock but Stacey has looked well off his best in last two games.

Good test this for the new management team.
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We need to sign another player who can play right back I think. Not good to rely on only Smithy and Stacey as they are both injury prone. Only other player who comes to mind as a possibility is Stan... that's no
zigger zaggar said:
So you are the absolute oracle on all things AFCB and you thought we were playing Blackburn on Saturday??????????????????????
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It's all getting a little... out of proportionally nasty on here... One thing to banter or disagree but... we support the same team:)
 
Waz afcb said:
My mistake, thought it was Blackburn on Saturday. The points total is very good, the performances on a whole have been average and warrant around a mid table standing. XG backs this up.
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I'm afraid the points total factually backs up and determines the final table, but you pick the one that suits you.
 
redharry said:
There is just one simple fact. the teams below us have to get at least 8 points more than us over the remainder of the season. We have breathing space while in an injury crisis. It will improve.
Taken another way on results to date WBA are on course for 80 points this season which means that if things continue as they are we need to get 40 more points from 27 games to finish above them - thats 1.5 points per game.
Will it pan out like that who knows but that is the RH analysis.
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xRH
 
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