xG Timelines

Matt Stevenson

First Team
I've set this thread up so it can easily be ignored by those not keen on the concept.

I've also realised it would be helpful to mark when the goals were scored so we can look to see if this altered the flow of the game. I've added this to the Cardiff stats to check it works ok.

For completeness I've copied my thoughts related to the original post / analyses below.

Cardiff.JPG

At 44 mins you could say the Cardiff game plan of sitting back and hoping for a smash and grab had been successful. They had created two big chances (both rated about 1 in 2) but nothing else, and we had created little in terms of clear chances. Their first was a header in the 6-yard box from Moore that Travers reacted to well, although Anthony did enough to stop Moore getting a firm header on it, which hasn't been commented on. The second was a slide by Moore to connect on the edge of the six-yard box and Travers kept it out.

In between Cook had a chance to shoot first time but opted to steady himself with what Kris Temple called a terrible first touch and the chance disappeared. And we also scored, although the chance rated one in 33 was covered by the keeper before the deflection. Let's hope this bit of luck sets Christie on his way.

The sending off in the 45th minute (which was a clear red, but I was still surprised that the ref didn't bottle it) changed everything, with Cardiff sticking to the game plan but unable to get near our goal. As they tired we dominated the last third of the game with five big (rated above 3 in 10) chances. In order.

A Lerma header where he rose well but couldn't keep it down, Solanke's goal after a great one-two involving a backheel from Billing, a Solanke chance from a Christie pullback although the ball was slightly behind him, the third goal which is a shame won't be credited to Jeff after a thunderous shot and a late chance for Christie when he couldn't sort out his feet in time to meet an excellent Marcondes cross.

Cardiff looked like they had given up at 2-0, but it was pleasing that we were still going after them rather than settling for that scoreline.
 
Sums up well what I thought watching the game, we were poor in the first half and deserved to be at least a goal behind at half time. After the sending off we dominated.
 
Sums up well what I thought watching the game, we were poor in the first half and deserved to be at least a goal behind at half time. After the sending off we dominated.

I didn't think we deserved to be behind any more than we deserved to be in the lead at Middlesbrough. Strikers are part of their side and Travers is part of ours. They blew their chances and we didn't.
 
Sums up well what I thought watching the game, we were poor in the first half and deserved to be at least a goal behind at half time. After the sending off we dominated.
Disagree with the 1st half and the stats back that up.
63% possesion, 5 goal attempts each, Dangerous Attacks 20 to 7 in the Cherries favour.
 
Thanks for posting the xG data and this timeline in particular Matt. The data sometimes repeats the obvious and can be misleading but I see it as an interesting alternative dimension to thinking about each game.
 
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@Kudos @USCherry thanks for that. It shows for me on both desktop and iPhone, so wasn’t aware of the issue. I wonder if it’s because it’s been sent to me by direct message?

May well need @Matt Stevenson to post on them on this thread and i will edit the article.
 
On a related note, I thought this was interesting:

https://dataviz.theanalyst.com/season-reviews/2021/?competition_id=10&season_id=2021

It shows us top of the table to xG from open play. It also shows our defence is pushing towards midtable for xG conceded. The perception on here has sometimes been that the defence has been mostly solid but we haven't been creative enough.

Also lots of work to be done in both attacking and defending set pieces.
 

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