Non - Pandemic

Tinpot Club said:
Not sure how accurate this is but I’ve read the death rate from normal flu is 1% while it is 2.5% with Coronavirus.

Deaths from flu are usually restricted to the elderly or those with other health complications where there body is unable to fight the virus. Coronavirus, while obviously more serious, doesn’t seem to be massively more lethal.
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It isn’t accurate, although those most likely to die in each case are the old with underlying health problems.

The death rate from flu and associated cases of pneumonia is 0.1%. Furthermore only a small minority of the population catch flu every year because of vaccination and natural immunity built up from previous exposure to flu viruses. There is no vaccine for Coronavirus, nor is there any natural immunity.

The death rate in the worst affected area of China is about 4%, a number borne out by Italy where there have been about 440 cases and 12 deaths so far. This is a serious threat.
 
docmandu said:
The scaremongering and coverage of the Corona virus story is interesting .... 3 deaths outside of China and two of these along way from here .... Philippines and Hong Kong.
The one death in Europe was France .... but then look at the individual .... whilst still a tragedy it was an 80 year old man who’d travelled from China.
During this scaremongering many more people will have died in this country from viral pneumonia, bacterial pneumonia, necrotising fasciitis and many other infectious diseases.
Yes it’s a tragedy for China and they really have to look at the source ..... animal markets, and the WHO have to monitor it but this is really being over hyped.

We are still more likely to die everyday we get in our cars or even more likely everyday we get on our bikes or motorbikes.
Even gardening is more likely to kill you than this virus! And yes .... I’ve seen three fatalities from gardening in the last decade and they weren’t frail octogenarians.

How about we focus our resources on sepsis recognition and treatment ... a far greater threat to the working population, young and elderly.
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Two weeks later and its 61 deaths outside China. I believe you said you were Involved in healthcare, do you still think its over hyped scaremongering ? I mean if you guys aren't taking it seriously .
 
red_house said:
Two weeks later and its 61 deaths outside China. I believe you said you were Involved in healthcare, do you still think its over hyped scaremongering ? I mean if you guys aren't taking it seriously .
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Yes Red we are taking it seriously and are prepared for what may come but that is nothing new.

We've had SARS before from Corona and similar viruses and we will have it again. The last times were in 2002 and 2004 and this is not looking anything more significant than that as yet but has received massively more coverage. Maybe we should ask ourselves why?

Swine flu did not create this level of excitement when over 500 patients were hospitalised in the UK with 99 in Critical Care and 128 deaths.

If you compare the current infection to that of UK deaths from the usual flu culprits in both 2018 and 2019 we had 23k and 21k deaths respectively.
In 2018 a total of 263 cases of flu were admitted to ICU's and in 2019 it was 174. In all 586 patients were hospitalised.

So my point was that this has a long way to go before it gets anywhere near the hospitalisation rates, critical care admissions and fatalities that we face every year in the UK from flu and if you read my previous post sepsis is on another level when it comes to fatalities. Compare also to bacterial pneumonia which causes some 29,000 deaths per year in the UK but no one is worried about picking up strep pneumonie.

You also can't compare the UK to outbreaks that have happened in further afield countries as there numbers have been boosted by crowding, poor isolation initially and lack of hand hygiene in poorer areas and less widely available health care.

Also interestingly no one currently undergoes isolation in the UK if they get the flu. That may well change in the future I suspect.

Locally we have isolation pods in place at all hospitals and health care professionals have been briefed and have been trained well before this in treating patients and protecting the spread within a hospital and amongst the staff. We have all been "fit" tested for masks suitable to prevent catching it from a patient and spreading it on and in fact I had to wear one earlier this year when dealing with a badly affected influenza patient.

Normally viruses struggle to maintain a hold in this country as the climate warms up into the spring so this may act in our favour but we are ready if this proves not to be true.

The mainstay to deal with this outbreak is screening / isolation and supportive measures if illness and organ failures develop (particularly the respiratory system). At Poole we are very used to supporting organ failure .... respiratory, cardiovsascluar and renal and have the means in place for critical care transfer to centres offering ECMO should that be needed.
 
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docmandu said:
Yes Red we are taking it seriously and are prepared for what may come but that is nothing new.

We've had SARS before from Corona and similar viruses and we will have it again. The last times were in 2002 and 2004 and this is not looking anything more significant than that as yet. Swine flu did not create this level of excitement when over 500 patients were hospitalised in the UK with 99 in Critical Care and 128 deaths.

If you compare the current infection to that of deaths from the usual flu culprits in both 2018 and 2019 we had 23 and 21 deaths respectively.
In 2018 a total of 263 cases of flu were admitted to ICU's and in 2019 it was 174. In all 586 patients were hospitalised.
So my point was that this has a long way to go before it gets anywhere near the hospitalisation rates, critical care admissions and fatalities that we face every year in the UK from flu.

You also can't compare the UK to outbreaks that have happened in further afield countries as there numbers have been boosted by crowding, poor isolation initially and lack of hand hygiene in poorer areas and less widely available health care.

Also interestingly no one currently undergoes isolation in the UK if they get the flu. That may well change in the future I suspect.

Locally we have isolation pods in place at all hospitals and health care professionals have been briefed and have been trained well before this in protecting the spread within a hospital and amongst the staff. We have all been "fit" tested for masks suitable to prevent catching it from a patient and spreading it on and in fact I had to wear one earlier this year when dealing with a badly affected influenza patient.

Normally viruses struggle to maintain a hold in this country as the climate warms up into the spring so this may act in our favour but we are ready if this proves not to be true.

The mainstay to deal with this outbreak is screening / isolation and supportive measures if illness and organ failures develop (particularly the respiratory system). At Poole we are very used to supporting organ failure .... respiratory, cardiovsascluar and renal and have the means in place for critical care transfer to centres offering ECMO should that be needed.
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Thankyou for your update which makes a change from the relentless media drivel and blatant scaremongering coming from all sides
 
Interesting article:
"The emerging consensus among epidemiologists is that the most likely outcome of this outbreak is a new seasonal disease—a fifth “endemic” coronavirus. With the other four, people are not known to develop long-lasting immunity. If this one follows suit, and if the disease continues to be as severe as it is now, “cold and flu season” could become “cold and flu and COVID-19 season.”
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/
 
Infographic from today’s Corriere Della Sera, the main newspaper in Milan, showing the number and spread of diagnosed cases and deaths (“Deceduti”). Deaths are shown by age and gender (“Donna” is woman, “Uomo” is man).

Granted public health facilities in Italy are generally terrible and mis managed, but this does show how COVID-19 is capable of spreading in Europe. The areas in Northern Italy affected are neither poor nor over crowded.

4828CEB3-ACDC-4AF2-980D-97C7F72CDA54.jpeg
 
redharry said:
Thankyou for your update which makes a change from the relentless media drivel and blatant scaremongering coming from all sides
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To be fair to some of the media. On the Sky paper review last night, two blokes normally on together from the Daily Mail and the Mirror thought things were getting a bit OTT.

They mentioned the flu with more cases and deaths in a year.
 
docmandu said:
Yes Red we are taking it seriously and are prepared for what may come but that is nothing new.

We've had SARS before from Corona and similar viruses and we will have it again. The last times were in 2002 and 2004 and this is not looking anything more significant than that as yet but has received massively more coverage. Maybe we should ask ourselves why?

Swine flu did not create this level of excitement when over 500 patients were hospitalised in the UK with 99 in Critical Care and 128 deaths.

If you compare the current infection to that of UK deaths from the usual flu culprits in both 2018 and 2019 we had 23 and 21 deaths respectively.
In 2018 a total of 263 cases of flu were admitted to ICU's and in 2019 it was 174. In all 586 patients were hospitalised.

So my point was that this has a long way to go before it gets anywhere near the hospitalisation rates, critical care admissions and fatalities that we face every year in the UK from flu and if you read my previous post sepsis is on another level when it comes to fatalities. Compare also to bacterial pneumonia which causes some 29,000 deaths per year in the UK but no one is worried about picking up strep pneumonie.

You also can't compare the UK to outbreaks that have happened in further afield countries as there numbers have been boosted by crowding, poor isolation initially and lack of hand hygiene in poorer areas and less widely available health care.

Also interestingly no one currently undergoes isolation in the UK if they get the flu. That may well change in the future I suspect.

Locally we have isolation pods in place at all hospitals and health care professionals have been briefed and have been trained well before this in treating patients and protecting the spread within a hospital and amongst the staff. We have all been "fit" tested for masks suitable to prevent catching it from a patient and spreading it on and in fact I had to wear one earlier this year when dealing with a badly affected influenza patient.

Normally viruses struggle to maintain a hold in this country as the climate warms up into the spring so this may act in our favour but we are ready if this proves not to be true.

The mainstay to deal with this outbreak is screening / isolation and supportive measures if illness and organ failures develop (particularly the respiratory system). At Poole we are very used to supporting organ failure .... respiratory, cardiovsascluar and renal and have the means in place for critical care transfer to centres offering ECMO should that be needed.
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Thanks Doc, very interesting.
 
docmandu said:
Yes Red we are taking it seriously and are prepared for what may come but that is nothing new.

We've had SARS before from Corona and similar viruses and we will have it again. The last times were in 2002 and 2004 and this is not looking anything more significant than that as yet but has received massively more coverage. Maybe we should ask ourselves why?

Swine flu did not create this level of excitement when over 500 patients were hospitalised in the UK with 99 in Critical Care and 128 deaths.

If you compare the current infection to that of UK deaths from the usual flu culprits in both 2018 and 2019 we had 23 and 21 deaths respectively.
In 2018 a total of 263 cases of flu were admitted to ICU's and in 2019 it was 174. In all 586 patients were hospitalised.

So my point was that this has a long way to go before it gets anywhere near the hospitalisation rates, critical care admissions and fatalities that we face every year in the UK from flu and if you read my previous post sepsis is on another level when it comes to fatalities. Compare also to bacterial pneumonia which causes some 29,000 deaths per year in the UK but no one is worried about picking up strep pneumonie.

You also can't compare the UK to outbreaks that have happened in further afield countries as there numbers have been boosted by crowding, poor isolation initially and lack of hand hygiene in poorer areas and less widely available health care.

Also interestingly no one currently undergoes isolation in the UK if they get the flu. That may well change in the future I suspect.

Locally we have isolation pods in place at all hospitals and health care professionals have been briefed and have been trained well before this in treating patients and protecting the spread within a hospital and amongst the staff. We have all been "fit" tested for masks suitable to prevent catching it from a patient and spreading it on and in fact I had to wear one earlier this year when dealing with a badly affected influenza patient.

Normally viruses struggle to maintain a hold in this country as the climate warms up into the spring so this may act in our favour but we are ready if this proves not to be true.

The mainstay to deal with this outbreak is screening / isolation and supportive measures if illness and organ failures develop (particularly the respiratory system). At Poole we are very used to supporting organ failure .... respiratory, cardiovsascluar and renal and have the means in place for critical care transfer to centres offering ECMO should that be needed.
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Thanks and having and as an ongoing patient Poole Hospital have been excellent.

Keep up the good work in these difficult Winter times.
 
billythekid said:
To be fair to some of the media. On the Sky paper review last night, two blokes normally on together from the Daily Mail and the Mirror thought things were getting a bit OTT.

They mentioned the flu with more cases and deaths in a year.
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They probably published impending doom based articles themselves and then said that...
 
And standard face masks do not offer you protection. The airborne virus will penetrate it.
You need to have way more expensive masks fitted to yourself and you need to be then "fit" tested to make sure it's fit for purpose.

This involves wearing the mask properly fitted, then placing a large clear hood over your head whilst sweat and bitter sprays are pumped intro the hood.
Any hint of these two flavours detectable on your tongue and the mask has failed you.

As a medical professional if this happens you then have to wear a much more cumbersome style mask looking akin to a WW2 mask with absorbers and a battery powered fan. Very cumbersome and quite heavy.

Standard face masks you see people wearing only protect against the individual sneezing the virus everywhere .... it does not protect you but those around you.

The mask only serves as protection in that it stops virus on your hand from being introduced to your nares because the mask is in the way and subsequently gaining access. Face touching is bad news for giving yourself viruses.
 
docmandu said:
And standard face masks do not offer you protection. The airborne virus will penetrate it.
You need to have way more expensive masks fitted to yourself and you need to be then "fit" tested to make sure it's fit for purpose.

This involves wearing the mask properly fitted, then placing a large clear hood over your head whilst sweat and bitter sprays are pumped intro the hood.
Any hint of these two flavours detectable on your tongue and the mask has failed you.

As a medical professional if this happens you then have to wear a much more cumbersome style mask looking akin to a WW2 mask with absorbers and a battery powered fan. Very cumbersome and quite heavy.

Standard face masks you see people wearing only protect against the individual sneezing the virus everywhere .... it does not protect you but those around you.

The mask only serves as protection in that it stops virus on your hand from being introduced to your nares because the mask is in the way and subsequently gaining access. Face touching is bad news for giving yourself viruses.
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They had pictures of people with these masks on in Rome and other places, so basically useless?

The masks in China I suppose help the people against fumes etc as they have been wearing them before this latest virus had been known.

Not seen anyone yet in our area with one.
 
billythekid said:
They had pictures of people with these masks on in Rome and other places, so basically useless?

The masks in China I suppose help the people against fumes etc as they have been wearing them before this latest virus had been known.

Not seen anyone yet in our area with one.
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No, they can stop you spreading it by sneezing disease everywhere or wiping your nose and smearing it on door handles etc. People wearing them are arguably bring courteous.
 
docmandu said:
And standard face masks do not offer you protection. The airborne virus will penetrate it.
You need to have way more expensive masks fitted to yourself and you need to be then "fit" tested to make sure it's fit for purpose.

This involves wearing the mask properly fitted, then placing a large clear hood over your head whilst sweat and bitter sprays are pumped intro the hood.
Any hint of these two flavours detectable on your tongue and the mask has failed you.

As a medical professional if this happens you then have to wear a much more cumbersome style mask looking akin to a WW2 mask with absorbers and a battery powered fan. Very cumbersome and quite heavy.

Standard face masks you see people wearing only protect against the individual sneezing the virus everywhere .... it does not protect you but those around you.

The mask only serves as protection in that it stops virus on your hand from being introduced to your nares because the mask is in the way and subsequently gaining access. Face touching is bad news for giving yourself viruses.
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Hey doc ......... any value to wearing latex gloves to keep the virus off the hands?

One of the resident TV medicos here pointed out that while the death rate %-age seems higher than other similar situations (viruses, flus), the number of detected cases is probably much lower than the numbers suggest, as many can be asymptomatic ... consequently, while the number of deaths in the equation is accurate, the denominator is probably higher, making the death rate lower.
Agree?
 
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