My concern is the teams we are chasing. In our first year we had teams like Sunderland, West Brom, Swansea, Stoke, Villa I think there are a couple more I’m forgetting who all had weak squads as well as Norwich and Watford. This year you look at who was around the bottom last time and you have Leeds who have spent a fortune, Brentford who are solid, and Saints who I would use the word ‘fear’ for it it was anyone other than them. It feels like a stronger division and we aren’t the convincing force of nature we were then.
When predicting our chances of survival as at July 2015, the other teams we were including as potential competitors for the drop were Norwich, Watford, Sunderland, West Brom, Villa, Leicester, West Ham and Newcastle (plus maybe Palace). Swansea and Stoke were considered solid mid-table having finished 8th and 9th. So we'd see them as teams we could take points from but not direct competitors for the drop. Chelsea had won the league in 2014/15 by 10 points.
Fast forward to the end of the season... Leicester won the league (without beating us); Chelsea came 10th (losing at home to us). Norwich did a Norwich and went straight back down; Villa completely imploded (we gave them 3 of their 17 points) and Sunderland just pipped Newcastle to 17th. 5 points separated Everton at 11th to us at 16th.
Overall... I tend to agree that, compared to July 2015, it's harder to positively identify teams that are going to end up in the lower third of the table (rather than competing for 6th/7th). Apart from Leeds (arguably), it seems like most of the lower table teams from last season has something about them which makes the threat of relegation less obvious: Everton (rich owners; long history); Newcastle (rich owners; Eddie); Villa (rich owners); Palace (never really in the scrap last year so why would it change).
That said... I'd identify Saints and Brentford as two of the teams that will be in or around the relegation places come May next year (in addition to us, Fulham and Forest). Brentford are solid but got a huge boost from having Eriksen (who they won't be able to replace). Saints have been struggling for the past 2 seasons.
There will also a surprise or two. Based on 2020/21 and preparations for 2021/22, no one would have predicted Leeds and Everton would struggle so badly. I think Wolves may struggle this year. Their form from February onwards was pretty woeful. I also think we may see an unexpected implosion (perhaps Leicester or West Ham).
Anyway... I've typed all this and realised by the end that I'm in agreement with you. Weaker teams are somewhat less obvious to see this year.
But query how relevant that ends up being in the end. We will only truly be able to judge the relative strength of our squad with others having played 10-15 games. Compared to 2014/15 I'm equally (un)confident of us staying up. I was 50/50 then and I'm about the same now but with different reasoning.
