AFC Bournemouth v Burnley

billythekid

billythekid

UTC Legend
A Win Would Take AFCB Out Of Relegation Spot

Another disappointing afternoon at Dean Court for the Cherries faithful, with two individual errors in the game against Wolves that cost our team at least a point. First one was a moment of madness by Lewis Cook who was red carded for a headbutt, reducing our team to 10 men with the score at 1-1. The second error was by Neto when he rolled the ball out to a surprised Philip Billing with Wolves players in near attendance, Billing didn’t have full control of the ball and lost it, the next thing it was beyond Neto and in our net giving the Cherries ten men an unenviable task of coming back back from 1-2 down to try and get an equaliser.

Our team have the chance on Saturday to put things right in our first game against one of the promoted teams from the Championship and the team that finished as Champions, Burnley. A Cherries win would take them out of the relegation zone, with Luton Town playing Sunday away against Aston Villa. This game is again at home at Dean Court at 3 pm. With our poor start and losing our last four league games, the Cherries have also conceded 12 goals and only scored two, our manager is coming under pressure from comments in the media and from some AFCB fans on his future.

Sean Dyche was sacked in April 2022 after being beaten away at Norwich who were rock bottom of the table. He had been the Burnley manager since October 2012, taking over from Eddie Howe who came back home to Dean Court. Burnley’s under 23 manager Michael Jackson took over for the rest of the season, but couldn’t stop the team being relegated.

With Burnley now in the Championship, Burnley appointed Vincent Kompany to become their new manager. In his first three games in the Championship, Burnley W D L. Then in the home game against Hull City his side drew 1-1, from that game Burnley went on a 16 game unbeaten run in the Championship until they lost 5-2 away against Sheffield United.

Their next home league game they beat Blackburn Rovers 3-0 and then won their next 10 games, going unbeaten in 22 games. At the end of the season Burnley finished with 101 points, the 6th highest in the Championship Table of All Time, equal with Fulham who achieved it in the 2000-01 season, but they had a higher GD so finished 5th. Reading are still top of the Table of All Time with 106 points in the 2005-06 season.

Vincent Kompany and his Burnley team have had a tough start in the Premier League. On their travels so far Burnley in their first away game drew 1-1 with Nottingham Forest. Then they lost 2-0 up in Newcastle, which was followed with their first and only win so far against fellow promoted newcomers Luton Town 1-2. In their most recent game they went down 3-0 at Brentford.

At home Burnley lost their five opening games, 0-3 against Manchester City and 1-3 in the game with Aston Villa. Then they suffered their heaviest defeat 2-5 against Spurs. Then 0-1 against Manchester United and 1-4 with Chelsea. Burnley are in 18th position, one place and 1 point ahead of the Cherries.

Our last meeting with Burnley at Dean Court was on the 21st December 2019, the game will be remembered by these stats, AFCB shots 3 on target 0, Burnley shots 2 on target 1. Not a good game and that 1 on target didn’t come until the 89th minute and it was the winning goal scored by Jay Rodriguez.

In all our home league games against Burnley, AFCB have W 5, D 4, L 5.
All competitions, AFCB have W 7, D 11, L 16.

AFCB Team News
Lewis Cook starts the first of his three game suspensions. No news on any new injuries.

AFCB Player To Watch
Dominic Solanke scored his fourth goal against Wolves and will be out to add to that tally against Burnley. He had a good game against Wolves and even with our side with 10 men battled away up front. Tavernier again had a good game, especially the first half. Our fans who have been waiting for Alex Scott to start, probably will get a second chance on Saturday.

Burnley Team News
They made a number of signings in the Summer. For this game Connor Roberts is suspended. On the injury front they have five players out.

Burnley Player To Watch
Lyle Foster has scored 3 goals and also 2 assists in his last 6 league games and is top with goals and assists. Another player is Zeki Amdouni the Switzerland international, he was joint top scorer last season in the Europa Conference League for Basel with 7 goals. So far he has scored 1 goal in 8 starts in the Premier League.
Jay Rodriguez has only made 4 substitute appearances this season, but has a good record of scoring against our club, especially at Dean Court.

The Referee
Sam Barrot is our referee and this will be his first game refereeing an AFCB game. He was a referee in the National League in 2019-20 season. 2020-21 and 2021-22 he took charge of games in League 1 and 2. 2022-23 apart from League 1 and 2, he took four Championship games. This season he is taking games in the Championship and Premier League, Fulham v Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest v Luton Town. He issued 3 yellows in both games.
 
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It sets up a tasty clash against relegation rivals on Saturday against a Bournemouth side who have yet to claim their first win of the campaign.

While both currently languish inside the bottom three, is that where they deserve to be?

We take a look at an alternative Premier League table based on Expected Goals (xG), Expected Goals Against (xGA) and Expected Points (xPTS) – here are the results:

www.burnleyexpress.net

Where Burnley sit in the Premier League's alternative xG table compared to their rivals

There’s no denying it’s been a challenging start to the season for Burnley, who have lost seven of their opening nine games.
www.burnleyexpress.net www.burnleyexpress.net
 
OLDSKOOL said:
Only six goals scored so far , we look so weak up front …
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I think with our new style of football under Andoni Iraola we were expecting more attacking football which would lead to more goals.

It may yet come, if our manager is given time.

Not sure what happened to the breakdown in a deal to sign a new striker.

Realistically without the individual errors from our players we could have at least 4 more points on the board.
 
billythekid said:
I think with our new style of football under Andoni Iraola we were expecting more attacking football which would lead to more goals.

It may yet come, if our manager is given time.

Not sure what happened to the breakdown in a deal to sign a new striker.

Realistically without the individual errors from our players we could have at least 4 more points on the board.
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Certainly I was expecting more goals from different parts of the team.
So far we have been very reliant upon Dom and continue with our tendency to try to walk the ball into the net. We need more offensive impetus coming from other areas. That will also make it much harder to neutralise us.
I really hope that AI can get it into the players' heads that ALL players are allowed to shoot, should the opportunity present itself.

I think most of us could live with going down having lost every game 3-4, 2-3 or whatever. Way better than going down with a low scoring, pathetic little whimper, as we will do if we continue as we are.

Time to take the shackles off ( well, Neto can put some on, please ! :p ) and play some gung-ho rock 'n roll football. Well, it's what I'd like to see anyway !
 
thegazzyb said:
Certainly I was expecting more goals from different parts of the team.
So far we have been very reliant upon Dom and continue with our tendency to try to walk the ball into the net. We need more offensive impetus coming from other areas. That will also make it much harder to neutralise us.
I really hope that AI can get it into the players' heads that ALL players are allowed to shoot, should the opportunity present itself.

I think most of us could live with going down having lost every game 3-4, 2-3 or whatever. Way better than going down with a low scoring, pathetic little whimper, as we will do if we continue as we are.

Time to take the shackles off ( well, Neto can put some on, please ! :p ) and play some gung-ho rock 'n roll football. Well, it's what I'd like to see anyway !
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Our goal against Wolves was from getting the ball across the area and Solanke just needed the slightest touch to steer the ball into the net giving the keeper no chance.
 
billythekid said:
Our goal against Wolves was from getting the ball across the area and Solanke just needed the slightest touch to steer the ball into the net giving the keeper no chance.
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Exactly. We need to see much more of that. More crosses into dangerous areas, more shots coming in from outside the area, left, right and centre. Every shot needs to be followed up by the other players running in, ready to pick up any loose ends, should it end up being half-cleared. These are easy goals to score. We concede them ourselves all the time !

To my eyes, we seem to spend large parts of every game trying to intricately play the ball to feet through the centre of a fairly densely packed penalty area. Rarely effective and fairly easy for the opposition to deal with.
 
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thegazzyb said:
Exactly. We need to see much more of that. More crosses into dangerous areas, more shots coming in from outside the area, left right and centre. Every shot needs to be followed up by the other players running in, ready to pick up any loose ends, should it end up being half-cleared. These are easy goals to score. We concede them ourselves all the time !

To my eyes, we seem to spend large parts of every game trying to intricately play the ball to feet through the centre of a fairly densely packed penalty area. Rarely effective and fairly easy for the opposition to deal with.
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The ‘old fashion’ winger would get down the lines and get high and low crosses into the area.
 
billythekid said:
The ‘old fashion’ winger would get down the lines and get high and low crosses into the area.
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Those were the days :love:
These days there does seem to be a bit of an obsession with showing how good you are at dribbling and taking people on. Often with no end product but good for the ego I suppose.....
 
We seem to be playing teams at the wrong time. Everton had just lost at home to Luton before we played them, and Saturday was Burnley's worst display of the season too.

Bound to be a response
 
beds cherry said:
We seem to be playing teams at the wrong time. Everton had just lost at home to Luton before we played them, and Saturday was Burnley's worst display of the season too.

Bound to be a response
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Ah ! But that's probably what every team thought about us before playing us and so far we've been kind enough to offer no response whatsoever !
I have some optimism that Burnley will do their very best to emulate our good selves in this regard !

:utc:
 
Much has been made from outside observers about Kompany’s stubbornness in sticking to the approach that worked so well in the Championship last season.

When asked if another defeat might change that, the Burnley boss said: “The change is always incremental change, so you always learn and you always find a way to make it work.

“But that’s not related to just losing or winning, it’s a habit you need to have and a discipline.

“At this moment in time making too much of a distinction between us and the teams we’re competing with, I’m not naive enough to drive myself into something like this.

 
Getting to the point where it feels as though we’d be better off if we just went with a good old fashioned 442

Scrap this ludicrous playing out from the back as we clearly aren’t capable of doing it without gifting goals

Stick Solanke and Semenyo up front and get them creating havoc

Simple, it’s it?
 
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Burnley. These were at home to Chelsea, and away at Newcastle, Luton and Brentford. Burnley have one win (away at Luton) and three defeats, although xG suggests that this may be an over-achievement, with Luton having slightly the better chances. Burnley have scored 3 goals and conceded 9 whereas xG had them down as scoring 3.66 and conceding 9.63

GoalsxG.JPG

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. It appears that Burnley favour two defensive midfielders, with the average positions of the two players at the edge of the centre circle nearest there own goal. These were slightly higher against Luton, which would be the easiest fixture on paper.

Av Positions.JPG
Burnley have had 1 scorer in the last 4 games, Odobert, who was assisted by Foster.

The following graph compares summary stats of Burnley and AFCB over the last 4 games. Both teams have been struggling There is a tie for goal attempts per game although Burnley have scored more but AFCB have had more big chances. AFCB have conceded more chances in total, more big ones, and conceded more goals (10 vs 6). Both teams have a large net deficit comparing xG with xGc (5.96 for Burnley and 7.03 for AFCB). This game could be decided on which team makes fewer errors and which can try and restore some of their battered confidence.

Comparison.JPG

Both Burnley and AFCB have had less than 50% of possession. The percentage of chances conceded from open play are fairly similar although AFCB are creating less chances from set pieces which is unlikely to be a surprise for those who have been following the games.

Percentages.JPG
 
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Only 3 clubs out of the 92 yet to register a win this season. Oddly , apart from us , that includes both the Sheffield clubs. Looking at the fixtures it's difficult to see Sheff Utd ( at Arsenal) or Luton ( at Villa) picking up points this weekend. So early on in the season but this is a huge game for us and it's now 6 months since we've tasted a league victory. The pressure to record a win becomes massive and playing under that pressure.its easy to understand why individuals are making mistakes. Burnley won't be a pushover but Burnley and Sheff Utd at home should be our Par 3 Stroke Index 18 and 17 holes. A win is vital and anything but heaps more pressure on everyone at the club. I'm not so sure that the ' together anything is possible ' motto is running strong at the moment and ' anything is chargeable' is probably more apt. I don't want to think of the consequences of defeat at the moment. I'm looking forward to seeing us register our first league win since April. On a side note a couple of things from last weekend. I noticed that the whole of the area behind the NS is now open at HT and there is now a pop up bar outside relieving the queues inside. Much better! However, feeling peckish I joined the queue for a hotdog. Bloody awful processed sausage in a dry bun and then noticed they are now £5! Quickly left the queue. I don't mind spending whatever if I think it's worth it but £5 for one of those awful hotdogs? C'mon AFCB you can do better than that.
 
Red_till_im_ded said:
Only 3 clubs out of the 92 yet to register a win this season. Oddly , apart from us , that includes both the Sheffield clubs. Looking at the fixtures it's difficult to see Sheff Utd ( at Arsenal) or Luton ( at Villa) picking up points this weekend. So early on in the season but this is a huge game for us and it's now 6 months since we've tasted a league victory. The pressure to record a win becomes massive and playing under that pressure.its easy to understand why individuals are making mistakes. Burnley won't be a pushover but Burnley and Sheff Utd at home should be our Par 3 Stroke Index 18 and 17 holes. A win is vital and anything but heaps more pressure on everyone at the club. I'm not so sure that the ' together anything is possible ' motto is running strong at the moment and ' anything is chargeable' is probably more apt. I don't want to think of the consequences of defeat at the moment. I'm looking forward to seeing us register our first league win since April. On a side note a couple of things from last weekend. I noticed that the whole of the area behind the NS is now open at HT and there is now a pop up bar outside relieving the queues inside. Much better! However, feeling peckish I joined the queue for a hotdog. Bloody awful processed sausage in a dry bun and then noticed they are now £5! Quickly left the queue. I don't mind spending whatever if I think it's worth it but £5 for one of those awful hotdogs? C'mon AFCB you can do better than that.
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The two Sheffield teams' performances are one of the few things making football bearable at the minute. If they'd been on good runs then everytime we met up for football (only 5 times a week!) someone would have been having a pop at us/me.

I'm dreading we lose to the Blades though. It will non-stop if that happens. Big 3 points are due this weekend
 
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