AFC Bournemouth v Liverpool

billythekid

billythekid

UTC Legend
Last Home Game Before International Break Against Top Six Side

With our side being so close to another point against the team top of the Premier League, but beaten by a late injury time goal, it reminded me of that game in December 2016 at Dean Court when the score was 3-3 and Nathan Ake scored the winning goal three minutes into injury time and the celebrations on and off the pitch. Our opponents that day were Liverpool, who are our next visitors to Dean Court.

Liverpool are in fifth place, the game this Saturday is at the earlier time of 12.30 pm, it is being shown live on BT Sport. This will be the third time in our last three home games the game will be televised live. Against fourth place Newcastle United we drew and then against second place Manchester City we lost. It is our last home game before the international break against another side in top six.

Jurgen Klopp’s side have not by their standards been at their best this season, especially on their travels and have conceded 28 goals in their 25 games in the Premier League. Last season in all their 38 games they conceded 26 goals. There has been an improvement since their away defeat against Wolves. In their last five games this season they haven’t conceded a goal and have scored 13 goals in four wins and a draw. The latest win, the 7-0 thrashing of third place Manchester United at Anfield.

Liverpool have been let down by their away results, winning three games, drawing three and losing six. They have scored 13 goals and conceded 19. The wins were 1-2 at Spurs, 1-3 against Aston Villa and 0-2 against Newcastle United. They drew 2-2 with Fulham, 0-0 in the Merseyside derby against Everton and also 0-0 against Crystal Palace. The defeats were 2-1 against Manchester U, 3-2 at Arsenal, 1-0 against Nottingham Forest, 3-1at Brentford, 3-0 at Brighton and 3-0 against Wolves.

In their first home game they beat AFCB 9-0, this turned out to be the last game for Scott Parker as our manager. Liverpool have also beaten Newcastle United, Manchester City, West Ham, Southampton, Leicester City, Everton, Wolves and Manchester United. They have drawn with Crystal Palace, Brighton and Chelsea. Only lost one game against Wolves.

The last time we met Liverpool at Dean Court was 7th December 2019. Liverpool took the lead through Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in the 35th minute and Naby Keita put them further ahead in the 44th minute. Mo Salah put the game to bed with Liverpool’s third goal in the 54th minute and that was how it remained.

In all our home league games against Liverpool, AFCB have W 1, D 0, L 4.
All competitions, AFCB have W 1, D 3, L 14.

AFCB Team News
Two new injuries announced just before the Arsenal game were Jefferson Lerma and Hamed Traore, two important players for our team.

AFCB Player To Watch
With key players out injured and our side needing goals, our leading scorer with 5 goals is Philip Billing, with Kieffer Moore second with 4 goals. Then we have Dominic Solanke, Jefferson Lerma, Marcus Tavernier and Jaidon Anthony with 3 goals. Four of those players probably will not be starting on Saturday, so we will be looking for Billing and Solanke to produce the goods. Our defence will also be ones to watch.

Liverpool Team News
They signed one player in January, Netherlands forward Cody Gakpo from PSV Eindhoven for £45 million. They have had six players missing for recent games, Calvin Ramsay, Luis Diaz, Thiago Alcantara, Joe Gomez, Naby Keita and Arthur Melo.

Liverpool Player To Watch
Mo Salah, now Liverpool’s all time top Premier League scorer with 129 goals. He likes scoring at Dean Court and in every appearance here, he has scored. So far this season he is Liverpool’s leading scorer with 11 goals in the league and also has their most assists with 7. In his last five league games he has scored 4 goals and 3 assists, two goals and two assists were in the last game against Manchester United. Amongst other players to look out for are Cody Gakpo has scored 4 goals in his last five games and Darwin Nunez in his last five games has also scored 4 goals and had 1 assist.

The Referee
John Brooks takes charge of this game, this season we had him at home against Saints in the league and away at Newcastle in the League Cup. Both games we lost by the only goal scored.
 
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Liverpool. These were against Newcastle and C Palace away and Wolves and Man U at home. They picked up 10 points from these games with xG suggesting that this is a better return than expected, with Liverpool having a worse xG than a largely 10-man Newcastle. The game against Palace was dull, the win against Wolves fairly routine, but the scoreline against Man U was the big surprise. xG expected less than 3 goals, so Liverpool took their chances well, as they did against us earlier in the season. In the four games Liverpool have scored 11 goals and conceded 0, whereas xG predicted 8.16 and 4.48. Maybe their luck is due to change.

GoalsxG.JPG

The average position of the starting line-up shows that in the last four games Liverpool have been compact in the middle third of the pitch, especially away from home.

Av Pos.JPG

The 11 goals have been scored by Salah (3), Nunez (3) and Gakpo (3) who have become Liverpool’s front 3. The assists have been spread throughout the team with only Salah having more than 1, with 3. After a long-period of only ticking over Salah appears to be heading into form.

Liverpool have created 46 chances and 16 big chances in these games with no clear pattern in the location of chances. Liverpool concede slightly more attempts down their right flank with strangely hardly any shots coming from wide of the six yard box on their left flank. For reference, we have created 25 chances and 5 big chances, with no clear pattern in the chances conceded in our last four games.
 
Not forgetting Liverpool will have an eye on the massive game to turn around next Wednesday in the Champions League. Getting 4 clear goals in Madrid will take some work and their best squad.
 
morris.minor said:
Not forgetting Liverpool will have an eye on the massive game to turn around next Wednesday in the Champions League. Getting 4 clear goals in Madrid will take some work and their best squad.
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That tie is as good as over. Embarrassing mismstch in 1st leg, was amazed at gulf between the2 sides.

But then look jow they stepped up v United.

This is a difficult game to predict. Obviously they're favourites still...
 
MB1980 said:
That tie is as good as over. Embarrassing mismstch in 1st leg, was amazed at gulf between the2 sides.

But then look jow they stepped up v United.

This is a difficult game to predict. Obviously they're favourites still...
Click to expand...
Manure were all over them first half, what happened second half was Manure giving in and not turning up
 
Looks like Vina and Brooks could be in full training from the photos on afcb.co.uk.
 
Matt Stevenson said:
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for Liverpool. These were against Newcastle and C Palace away and Wolves and Man U at home. They picked up 10 points from these games with xG suggesting that this is a better return than expected, with Liverpool having a worse xG than a largely 10-man Newcastle. The game against Palace was dull, the win against Wolves fairly routine, but the scoreline against Man U was the big surprise. xG expected less than 3 goals, so Liverpool took their chances well, as they did against us earlier in the season. In the four games Liverpool have scored 11 goals and conceded 0, whereas xG predicted 8.16 and 4.48. Maybe their luck is due to change.

View attachment 9973

The average position of the starting line-up shows that in the last four games Liverpool have been compact in the middle third of the pitch, especially away from home.

View attachment 9974

The 11 goals have been scored by Salah (3), Nunez (3) and Gakpo (3) who have become Liverpool’s front 3. The assists have been spread throughout the team with only Salah having more than 1, with 3. After a long-period of only ticking over Salah appears to be heading into form.

Liverpool have created 46 chances and 16 big chances in these games with no clear pattern in the location of chances. Liverpool concede slightly more attempts down their right flank with strangely hardly any shots coming from wide of the six yard box on their left flank. For reference, we have created 25 chances and 5 big chances, with no clear pattern in the chances conceded in our last four games.
Click to expand...
A really good read, as ever.

FWIW Merson is predicting us to win 2-0.
 
Losing tav and traore is another big blow. Weak attacking threat without those two coming from deeper positions
 
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