Matt Stevenson
First Team
I feel more positive having looked at the stats of Villa over the last 4 games. Their 7 point return looks a big outlier.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for A Villa. These were home games against Wolves and Brentford and away games at Man City and Arsenal. A Villa gained 7 points although they had lower xGs in all 4 games and 1 or 2 points may have been more representative. A Villa have scored 8 goals and conceded 7 with xG estimating 4.20 goals with 8.15 conceded.
A Villa have had 5 different goal scorers with Watkins having scored 3. Tielemans has 2 assists, and five other players have 1 assist each.
The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. In all games bar Brentford, Villa tried to soak up pressure and counter. This seems understandable away at the top 2, but surprising against a Wolves team that also likes to counter. With Villa also playing a potentially tough game against Lille on the Thursday before, how they line up will be uncertain.
The following graph compares summary stats of A Villa and AFCB over the last 4 games. The key difference is that A Villa have conceded more changes, more big chances and have a higher xGc. Admittedly 2 of the 4 games were tough, but they were still expected to conced about 1.5 goals vs both Brentford and Wolves.
Average possession I similar between the teams A Villa have an extremely low relative number of chances from open play (below 60%) whereas most teams are near to AFCB’s value. I hadn’t realised the reliance of Villa on set pieces.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for A Villa. These were home games against Wolves and Brentford and away games at Man City and Arsenal. A Villa gained 7 points although they had lower xGs in all 4 games and 1 or 2 points may have been more representative. A Villa have scored 8 goals and conceded 7 with xG estimating 4.20 goals with 8.15 conceded.
A Villa have had 5 different goal scorers with Watkins having scored 3. Tielemans has 2 assists, and five other players have 1 assist each.
The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. In all games bar Brentford, Villa tried to soak up pressure and counter. This seems understandable away at the top 2, but surprising against a Wolves team that also likes to counter. With Villa also playing a potentially tough game against Lille on the Thursday before, how they line up will be uncertain.
The following graph compares summary stats of A Villa and AFCB over the last 4 games. The key difference is that A Villa have conceded more changes, more big chances and have a higher xGc. Admittedly 2 of the 4 games were tough, but they were still expected to conced about 1.5 goals vs both Brentford and Wolves.
Average possession I similar between the teams A Villa have an extremely low relative number of chances from open play (below 60%) whereas most teams are near to AFCB’s value. I hadn’t realised the reliance of Villa on set pieces.