Mathematical Certainty of staying up

Rob151060

Rob151060

First Team
Just been crunching some numbers for this weekend, and it seems to me as follows:

If AFCB win or draw against Palace, we are mathematically certain to stay up.

If we lose at Palace, then we need either of the following to occur:

  • any two or more of Everton, Leeds and Leicester to lose
  • if Everton lose, then either of Leicester and/or Leeds to draw, as in that scenario at least Everton and Leicester and/or Leeds will be end the season us, as well as Southampton. If we lose, we therefore won’t know our fate with certainty until 4 pm on Sunday at the earliest.
The relevant fixtures are:

Saturday:
  • Leeds v. Newcastle (12.30 pm)
  • Palace v. Us


Sunday
  • Everton v. Man City
Monday

  • Leicester v. Liverpool.


A good set of fixtures, so as well as shouting for the boys on Saturday we can all be honorary Newcastle / Man City / (sharp intake of breath here) Liverpool fans.

:utc:
 
Sorry - typo - second alternative should read "as in that scenario at least Everton and Leicester and/or Leeds will end the season below us, as well as Southampton. " Fat fingers!
 
What history tells us from April 2019

Since the league was cut to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points required to avoid the drop has been much lower than 40.

Over the past 23 seasons, the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.6 points.

So, 36 points would have been enough to stay up on at least 11 occasions, as Southampton did in 2017/18.

Teams with 37 points would have retained their Premier League status in 16 of the past 23 seasons.

Lowest tally

West Bromwich Albion's 34 points in 2004/05 make them the team with the lowest total to remain in the Premier League.

That tally could be enough this season. Brighton & Hove Albion are currently on 33 points, two clear of third-from-bottom Cardiff City, whom they were defeated by on Tuesday night.

https://www.premierleague.com/news/1174821
 
Last edited:
billythekid said:
What history tells us

Since the league was cut to 20 teams in 1995/96, the average points required to avoid the drop has been much lower than 40.

Over the past 23 seasons, the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.6 points.

So, 36 points would have been enough to stay up on at least 11 occasions, as Southampton did in 2017/18.

Teams with 37 points would have retained their Premier League status in 16 of the past 23 seasons.

Lowest tally

West Bromwich Albion's 34 points in 2004/05 make them the team with the lowest total to remain in the Premier League.

That tally could be enough this season. Brighton & Hove Albion are currently on 33 points, two clear of third-from-bottom Cardiff City, whom they were defeated by on Tuesday night.

https://www.premierleague.com/news/1174821
Click to expand...
Perhaps you should have deleted the last paragraph?
 
I’d be absolutely shocked if we don’t stay up. Leicester look terrible and have hard games coming up and scum are done. Everton may have a resurgence on but Leeds look really bad.
 
What is the probability of, over the course of 3 sets of games, 21 results combining to relegate us. Just because there's a remote possibility something could happen, doesn't mean it will. I think that was what Rob Trent meant with the "crossing the road" post , there's a slight risk involved in every thing we do. No one attends or participates in sport and then says " thank goodness I'm home, I can relax and enjoy what happened now ". We all have enough to worry about in life, without adding sticks to the burden : )

Best thing we can do is cheer on the Cherry boys as they stick it up the Palace on Saturday : )
 
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