Next four

[USCherry]

1 Away games, 3 Home games all against teams mid table or below

Preston (a)
Peterborough (h)
Derby (h)
Reading (h)

If my calculations are correct, only the Peterborough game is one that will dig into the games in hand column as all other matches are on schedule. We could get 10-12 points, with still a large number of games in hand (3 games in hand over Huddersfield, Blackburn and QPR, 2 over Luton, Sheff U and Boro)

If we come out of these four games with anything less than 10 points then that'll make the next 4 against much harder opposition way more important. Don't need that

 

[Waz afcb]

1 Away games, 3 Home games all against teams mid table or below

Preston (a)
Peterborough (h)
Derby (h)
Reading (h)

If my calculations are correct, only the Peterborough game is one that will dig into the games in hand column as all other matches are on schedule. We could get 10-12 points, with still a large number of games in hand (3 games in hand over Huddersfield, Blackburn and QPR, 2 over Luton, Sheff U and Boro)

If we come out of these four games with anything less than 10 points then that'll make the next 4 against much harder opposition way more important. Don't need that

At this point in the season it is very much a ‘one game at a time’ type philosophy that gets you through. Obviously it’s interesting to look at from the perspective of a supporter but the complete focus has to be on the next fixture and that one alone. What I will say is that I’m not sure how you define ‘harder opposition.’ I assume that you’re using the league table but it’s worth bearing in mind that two of our better/most complete performances this season have come against Huddersfield and QPR (away.) We also played pretty well at Fulham with a depleted squad. Some of our worst performances have come against teams further down the league. I think if anything we are more suited to playing sides who will actually show attacking intent.

 

[cardiffcherry]

Massive 4 games. If we can get 9-12 points teams behind us will start to think we are uncatchable with our games in hand. But the reality is that Birmingham excepted, we haven’t been overly convincing recently and Preston and Derby almost always take points from us.

 

[MB1980]

1 Away games, 3 Home games all against teams mid table or below

Preston (a)
Peterborough (h)
Derby (h)
Reading (h)

If my calculations are correct, only the Peterborough game is one that will dig into the games in hand column as all other matches are on schedule. We could get 10-12 points, with still a large number of games in hand (3 games in hand over Huddersfield, Blackburn and QPR, 2 over Luton, Sheff U and Boro)

If we come out of these four games with anything less than 10 points then that'll make the next 4 against much harder opposition way more important. Don't need that

Yeah, after march (and home to Bristol city) tge games come thick and fast against tougher on paper opposition.

These home games coming up look like home bankers in theory, but also opportunity for us to let ourselves down if we don't up show more intent.we know exactly how they are likely to line up. We need to sure real intent and not be too ponderous in posession, otherwise could end drawing a couple, perhaps losing 1. That'll then pile on pressure for tougher games in April.

 

[MB1980]

Massive 4 games. If we can get 9-12 points teams behind us will start to think we are uncatchable with our games in hand. But the reality is that Birmingham excepted, we haven’t been overly convincing recently and Preston and Derby almost always take points from us.

Yeah our track record against lower/middle of the road sides always seems a bit dodge. Always slightly anxious going into these games

I'd be amazes if we won all 3 of those games at home. Can definitely imagine 1 very average/underwhelming display, going 1 down via counter attack, then struggling to craft a decent chance. With the opposition ftime wasting, perhaps our fans booing.

 

[kirsikka]

It's also that time of the year when some teams near the bottom pick up unexpected results as they start to have a tilt at staying up. I'm hopeful but I'm not counting any points yet.

 

[MB1980]

It's also that time of the year when some teams near the bottom pick up unexpected results as they start to have a tilt at staying up. I'm hopeful but I'm not counting any points yet.

Even sides with nothing to play for are still dangerous as can be playing with less expectations/weight on their shoulders.

Amount of times over the years we've let ourselves down against such opposition.

 

[Toronto John]

I'm not even certain how to define the "chasing pack" at this stage, but as a confirmed scoreboard watcher, I would also note the following games over our 4-game stretch to March 16:
SUFC - NF March 4
Fulham - Rovers March 5
Middlesbrough - Luton March 5
SUFC - Middlesbrough March 8
Luton - QPR March 13
NF - QPR March 16

Definitely a lot will shake out over the next two weeks, and if we keep taking points it will be tough for the pack to keep pace.

 

[redharry]

If we could get 10 points out of the next 4 then I reckon another 13 or 14 from the remaining 11 will see us home. But I think we will end up with about 88-90.

 

[USCherry]

At this point in the season it is very much a ‘one game at a time’ type philosophy that gets you through. Obviously it’s interesting to look at from the perspective of a supporter but the complete focus has to be on the next fixture and that one alone. What I will say is that I’m not sure how you define ‘harder opposition.’ I assume that you’re using the league table but it’s worth bearing in mind that two of our better/most complete performances this season have come against Huddersfield and QPR (away.) We also played pretty well at Fulham with a depleted squad. Some of our worst performances have come against teams further down the league. I think if anything we are more suited to playing sides who will actually show attacking intent.

ok, replace harder opposition with, no quite 6 pointers, but we definitely want at least a point from them to keep them at arms length. And yes, harder opposition is usually meaning teams that are higher in the table, irrespective of how we played against them previously under different circumstances.

 

[davidwhitehead]

Great discussion here from the excellent Benjamin Bloom about likely outcomes for the season.

 

[redharry]

Great discussion here from the excellent Benjamin Bloom about likely outcomes for the season.

Can't say I disagree with those conclusions. Ours to lose.

 

[afcdibby]

Great discussion here from the excellent Benjamin Bloom about likely outcomes for the season.

He's like a rockstar version of Statto. A great watch though.

 

[USCherry]

Good analysis, I know anything can happen, but looking at those required ppg, winning at home, drawing away even won't be enough for most of the teams below us.

As one of the comments on the vid says, if we lost Travers and/or Solanke that could be a big issue

 

[removed at users request]

1 Away games, 3 Home games all against teams mid table or below

Preston (a)
Peterborough (h)
Derby (h)
Reading (h)

If my calculations are correct, only the Peterborough game is one that will dig into the games in hand column as all other matches are on schedule. We could get 10-12 points, with still a large number of games in hand (3 games in hand over Huddersfield, Blackburn and QPR, 2 over Luton, Sheff U and Boro)

If we come out of these four games with anything less than 10 points then that'll make the next 4 against much harder opposition way more important. Don't need that

One match at a time

 

[RobTrent]

I don’t like it when we start to get over confident.

 

[northstandmark]

A point against Preston would be nice, then see if we can break down a stubborn and organised Peterborough (who did well against City last night).

Both things we've failed to do earlier in the season and would show improvement.

Take it from there.

 

[EasternRed]

Peterborough did play surprisingly well last night. Let's hope they've got that out their systems now..

 

[Kudos]

Great discussion here from the excellent Benjamin Bloom about likely outcomes for the season.

PPG needed to get to the 10 year average for second place. 2 PPG is Championship winning form.

Bizarrely doesn't make me feel any more confident but it does a good job of showing how unlikely how a random uptick in form from those lower down the league is likely to upset things.

 

[blandford_cherry]

@Waz afcb absolutely not a dig but that video is certainly worth a watch, historically the furthest someone has risen to 2nd after not being in the top 2 at game 35 was us in 14/15 and we were only 3 points off. (Last 10 seasons). I can’t see Sheff Utd doing it.

He’s averaged out season form and the last 12 games too and it’s looking pretty good for us.

Obviously history can change, but for anyone other than the current top 4 to finish 2nd is a huge huge ask and that’s without taking into our 3 games in hand.