Non(ish): An end to transfer fee inflation?

canadiancherry

canadiancherry

Star Player
Interesting article suggesting the unsustainable rise in transfer fees may have ended.
https://www.bavarianfootballworks.c...-ratio-premier-league-championship-leroy-sane
It's from a Bayern Munich perspective and annoyingly doesn't include any references for its data, but the points it makes are still worth thinking about.
Read the whole thing, but in a nutshell the reasons given are:
1. PL TV revenues are no longer increasing
2. The proportion of revenue spent on wages has increased to an unsustainable level for many teams
3. There are more ultra-high value players out there than there are clubs who can afford them
4. High-value players purchased pre-FFP are now decreasing in value and due to FFP, teams can't easily replace the lost value
 
The German FA have a very attractive product which could compete for TV money with the PL. It's in their interests for the curve to flatten so the distance between them and the PL shrinks
 
The teams that would be hit hardest by a freeze or decline in transfer fees/player values would be those who have recently purchased one or more high-value players. Our record signing is Lerma, at 25M, so we're not really in that category and don't have much to lose. In fact, many of our higher-value players (King, Wilson, Fraser, Ake, Brooks) were purchased for very low values (by today's standards) and even if values dropped a bit, we'd still be in a position to make a profit.
But if you are a newly-promoted side and broke the bank last summer in an effort to stay up, you are not in a good place.
 
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