Nonish - Aberdeen New Stadium

[Kudos]

And if he'd built a ground we'd be in twice as much debt, like Brighton.

Bournemouth (in EPL) matchday income £5M
Brighton matchday income £18.5M (9th highest in EPL)

Surely the £110M net Championship transfer outlay has had more of a negative impact on their debt.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

Bournemouth (in EPL) matchday income £5M
Brighton matchday income £18.5M (9th highest in EPL)

Surely the £110M net Championship transfer outlay has had more of a negative impact on their debt.

They pay for the travel subsidy in with that price, which is why it is so much higher than clubs with similar attendances. He's paid for a training ground too which cost an arm and a leg. The difference between their debt and everyone else's is the famous infrastructure. The point being it clearly doesn't pay for itself.

 

[Neil Dawson]

They pay for the travel subsidy in with that price, which is why it is so much higher than clubs with similar attendances. He's paid for a training ground too which cost an arm and a leg. The difference between their debt and everyone else's is the famous infrastructure. The point being it clearly doesn't pay for itself.

Over 20 home games they are generating 13m more than we did in the PL, down to the infrastructure if Kudos’s numbers are correct. Most new build projects like a return in 8 years. That would mean we could spend over 100m on a stadium? I guess we would have to subtract money for the onerous lease we would still be paying on the old ground but it should still stack up?

 

[SlowDownDerek]

Over 20 home games they are generating 13m more than we did in the PL, down to the infrastructure if Kudos’s numbers are correct. Most new build projects like a return in 8 years. That would mean we could spend over 100m on a stadium? I guess we would have to subtract money for the onerous lease we would still be paying on the old ground but it should still stack up?

If it stacked up they'd have built it wouldn't they. We know they looked at it and we know they didn't build it.

Brighton generate £125 per fan more than AFCB did in the PL, Southampton get £90 more per fan. Everyone else either gets about the same (Watford, Leicester, West Ham etc.) or significantly lower (Wolves, Cardiff, Palace etc.).

Brighton also get over 30,000 who pay these prices. We would need to treble attendances whilst increasing prices.

You mention new build projects but they would also factor in risk. Eight years payback period would be a low risk scenario where your income is contractually guaranteed for that period plus a healthy prospect of it continuing at that level. What's the matchday income on relegation?

Also the return of the investment is the difference in income compared to now. £5m is what they make now and will continue to make if they don't invest £100m in a new ground. Outgoings are £400k, not particularly onerous. Running costs of the new ground, even if owned, would probably be that business rates in a 25k stadium would be much higher.

What could a new ground generate? £10m? £12m at a push? So it's £100m investment for £5m-£7m increased income that is risky as you like.

As I say, they looked at it, did a bit of market research and didn't go for it.

 

[Sorry Roger]

Over 20 home games they are generating 13m more than we did in the PL, down to the infrastructure if Kudos’s numbers are correct. Most new build projects like a return in 8 years. That would mean we could spend over 100m on a stadium? I guess we would have to subtract money for the onerous lease we would still be paying on the old ground but it should still stack up?

You have to factor in the financing costs as well. And the income figure is based on what Brighton make in the Premier League. I suspect it would only stack up if we got to, and stayed in, the Premier League.

Assuming it went ahead in Kings Park we’d also have to pay to relocate the Athletics Stadium. Cardiff did the same when they built their new ground. It cost £5.7 million in 2008 and took just under a year to complete.

 

[Kudos]

Over 20 home games they are generating 13m more than we did in the PL, down to the infrastructure if Kudos’s numbers are correct. Most new build projects like a return in 8 years. That would mean we could spend over 100m on a stadium? I guess we would have to subtract money for the onerous lease we would still be paying on the old ground but it should still stack up?

Numbers are taken from news articles about lost revenue if grounds would close for a season during covid so a tiny bit out of date but published in a number of papers of varying reputability and I think mostly orginally sourced from the Swiss Ramble.

 

[Neil Dawson]

If it stacked up they'd have built it wouldn't they. We know they looked at it and we know they didn't build it.

Brighton generate £125 per fan more than AFCB did in the PL, Southampton get £90 more per fan. Everyone else either gets about the same (Watford, Leicester, West Ham etc.) or significantly lower (Wolves, Cardiff, Palace etc.).

Brighton also get over 30,000 who pay these prices. We would need to treble attendances whilst increasing prices.

You mention new build projects but they would also factor in risk. Eight years payback period would be a low risk scenario where your income is contractually guaranteed for that period plus a healthy prospect of it continuing at that level. What's the matchday income on relegation?

Also the return of the investment is the difference in income compared to now. £5m is what they make now and will continue to make if they don't invest £100m in a new ground. Outgoings are £400k, not particularly onerous. Running costs of the new ground, even if owned, would probably be that business rates in a 25k stadium would be much higher.

What could a new ground generate? £10m? £12m at a push? So it's £100m investment for £5m-£7m increased income that is risky as you like.

As I say, they looked at it, did a bit of market research and didn't go for it.

We wouldn’t need to go as big as Brighton though. Something like Brentford? Less income agreed but less outgoing and a reduced risk. Irritating as well we don’t have a council that get involved and see the benefit of this for other events like Hull did.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

We wouldn’t need to go as big as Brighton though. Something like Brentford? Less income agreed but less outgoing and a reduced risk. Irritating as well we don’t have a council that get involved and see the benefit of this for other events like Hull did.

That's the thing though isn't it? Maximum increase in revenue is what £6m IF we don't get relegated. I'm not sure how much cheaper a smaller ground would be but it's still a massive cost. Aberdeen's was supposed to be £50m-£60 and now it's much more. We'd have to buy a site and possibly relocate an athletics club in an area that has significantly higher land values and no obvious sites. We also don't have a ground to sell and the proposed site in the park cannot include other mixed use property like Brentford's did.

As I say, this "wasted £600m" argument is at best an inaccurate oversimplification and at worst willfully wrong.

 

[Neil Dawson]

That's the thing though isn't it? Maximum increase in revenue is what £6m IF we don't get relegated. I'm not sure how much cheaper a smaller ground would be but it's still a massive cost. Aberdeen's was supposed to be £50m-£60 and now it's much more. We'd have to buy a site and possibly relocate an athletics club in an area that has significantly higher land values and no obvious sites. We also don't have a ground to sell and the proposed site in the park cannot include other mixed use property like Brentford's did.

As I say, this "wasted £600m" argument is at best an inaccurate oversimplification and at worst willfully wrong.

Wasted is an emotive word. To rephrase it less emotionally we are in the same position now as when we entered the PL (if you ignore the magical 5 mins where we went top in 2014). We are back in that same position and have spent 600 plus million. We haven’t improved anything structurally or on the playing side (league position wise) but do have fantastic memories. I’m not saying people that say those memories were worth that 600m are wrong as it’s subjective to the individual. I’m saying I’d have accepted an earlier relegation for a stadium that secures us better fan base and potential to develop players moving forwards. Eddie always said him staying was dependent on better player environment being built for eg.

 

[tedisking]

Have to say the dumping of the training complex was a massive disappointment, will we ever get that opportunity again.?.....I feel not....as for the ground....that is a pipe dream

 

[SlowDownDerek]

Wasted is an emotive word. To rephrase it less emotionally we are in the same position now as when we entered the PL (if you ignore the magical 5 mins where we went top in 2014). We are back in that same position and have spent 600 plus million. We haven’t improved anything structurally or on the playing side (league position wise) but do have fantastic memories. I’m not saying people that say those memories were worth that 600m are wrong as it’s subjective to the individual. I’m saying I’d have accepted an earlier relegation for a stadium that secures us better fan base and potential to develop players moving forwards. Eddie always said him staying was dependent on better player environment being built for eg.

But where's the money coming from to pay for it? In your scenario they don't buy players and don't increase wages and go down after one season? You keep saying about £600m yet we never get close to that in your alternative reality. In this alternative reality of yours does the club challenge for promotion straight away after not investing in players?

Eddie wasn't telling the truth then was he.

 

[Neil Dawson]

But where's the money coming from to pay for it? In your scenario they don't buy players and don't increase wages and go down after one season? You keep saying about £600m yet we never get close to that in your alternative reality. In this alternative reality of yours does the club challenge for promotion straight away after not investing in players?

Eddie wasn't telling the truth then was he.

Scenario is you keep 50m aside for two years and then build it. We always put the promotion side back together to get the wins to stay up anyway in seasons 2 and 3 and they stayed up with very little help from signings in season 1. The 45m we gave Liverpool in transfer cash didn’t help us stay up.(although 20m of it is hopefully helping us get back up tonight!). The 8m for Grabban would have built the training ground and not effected performances one jot. At one stage we were paying Rangers 3m a year to play Defoe.

I don’t really want to debate this ad nauseam I just would have rather used some of the money we received differently. That might been at the expense of success but equally it might not had we had to use what we had more or think harder. Either way I’d have taken a shorter stay to build a more attractive future for fans and players. Many other clubs have done it and can’t believe we are unique in our constraints, without being close to the details.