Reading / AFCB Run-In Games

4FCB

4FCB

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Following the Reading result tonight, looking at the run-in of games there’s a glimmer of hope that we might just be able to make the play-offs.

Reading Games

QPR (h)
Barnsley (a)
Derby (h)
Watford (a)
Cardiff (h)
Luton (a)
Swansea (h)
Norwich (a)
Huddersfield (h)

AFCB Games

Middlesbrough (h)
Blackburn (a)
Coventry (h)
Huddersfield (a)
Norwich (a)
Millwall (a)
Brentford (h)
Wycombe (a)
Stoke (h)
 
2 points behind 1 team, if it stays like that there'll still be a glimmer of hope come Stoke. The fact there's 9 games, 27 points, more than enough chance to get there.

Or just look even worse and finish lower

Edit: BBC hadnt updated their table
 
4FCB said:
Following the Reading result tonight, looking at the run-in of games there’s a glimmer of hope that we might just be able to make the play-offs.

Reading Games

QPR (h)
Barnsley (a)
Derby (h)
Watford (a)
Cardiff (h)
Luton (a)
Swansea (h)
Norwich (a)
Huddersfield (h)

AFCB Games

Middlesbrough (h)
Blackburn (a)
Coventry (h)
Huddersfield (a)
Norwich (a)
Millwall (a)
Brentford (h)
Wycombe (a)
Stoke (h)
Click to expand...


A glimmer of hope? I think it's far more than that. Reading have 5 of the top 9 to play, we only have 3. Before tonight's game Championship Predictions | FiveThirtyEight had us finishing 6 / 7th (Given our goal difference advantage I assume they have ranked on fractions of points across multiple simulations) with a 44% chance of reaching the play-offs. After tonight's results I think that will be 50:50.
 
Matt Stevenson said:
A glimmer of hope? I think it's far more than that. Reading have 5 of the top 9 to play, we only have 3. Before tonight's game Championship Predictions | FiveThirtyEight had us finishing 6 / 7th (Given our goal difference advantage I assume they have ranked on fractions of points across multiple simulations) with a 44% chance of reaching the play-offs. After tonight's results I think that will be 50:50.
Click to expand...

People are forgetting that we seem to be able to beat the top teams and lose against the lower ones!
 
cardiffcherry said:
People are forgetting that we seem to be able to beat the top teams and lose against the lower ones!
Click to expand...

But that's why I'll be confident if we reach the play-offs. We have a fair few teams with not much to play for in that run in, who may have had enough of sitting behind the ball. I do think it's 50:50 on whether we get there.
 
Matt Stevenson said:
A glimmer of hope? I think it's far more than that. Reading have 5 of the top 9 to play, we only have 3. Before tonight's game Championship Predictions | FiveThirtyEight had us finishing 6 / 7th (Given our goal difference advantage I assume they have ranked on fractions of points across multiple simulations) with a 44% chance of reaching the play-offs. After tonight's results I think that will be 50:50.
Click to expand...

Problem for us though is we tend to perform far better against the top sides .
 
Wait until they we have played Middlesbrough, and they have played QPR and Barnsley.

3 points against Middlesbrough is crucial to keep them at bay and guaranteed to close gap on one of Reading or Barnsley with 8 to play.

Then we can reassess.
 
If you remember Reading won their first 4 games and we had 10 points. So in effect in the 33 games since we have matched each other. Interestingly the next 4 games are those return fixtures for us both.
 
Always best to have points on the board, rather than hoping to play catch-up, especially if there is no match in hand.

The situation is not that bright considering that, as this thread suggests, the only team we might catch are the biscuits.

But then again, just scraping over the line into the play-offs is the same as just missing out on second place.

We just have to go all out to win every match and hope that other teams falter. But, if, as we did on Tuesday night, show the will to go on the offensive, we can make it.
 
My Grandpa told me when I was very young, you always want the points in the bag rather than the games in the hand...

Then my take on Reading, their record is terrible against the bottom sides not the top. So their supposed “harder” run in could benefit them.
 
From those games, I gave us 15 points and Reading 14 points... Probably way off but I think it will very close... Will definitely need one of us, Cardiff or Reading to go on a decent run to secure something...

Reading Games

QPR (h) - 1
Barnsley (a) - 0
Derby (h) - 3
Watford (a) - 0
Cardiff (h) - 3
Luton (a) - 3
Swansea (h) - 1
Norwich (a) - 0
Huddersfield (h) - 3

AFCB Games

Middlesbrough (h) - 3
Blackburn (a) - 1
Coventry (h) - 3
Huddersfield (a) - 0
Norwich (a) - 0
Millwall (a) - 1
Brentford (h) - 1
Wycombe (a) - 3
Stoke (h) - 3
 
Winning against Southampton on Saturday may inadvertently help with the run in.

As things stand we’re due to play Norwich 5 games before the end of the season - if the gap to 3rd was to remain as 12 points as it is now, the game against us could be the one that secures their promotion. Clearly in that situation they’ll be properly up for it.

However, beat Southampton on Saturday and the game against Norwich is rearranged due to our game in the FA Cup semis. The next free midweek is the 27/28th of April - Norwich will be promoted by then and could well have taken their foot off the gas....
 
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