Would I be wrong to guess

O

OBX

Reserves
That at the prices being thrown around for even average players, someone would have to buy the club to get Ryan Fraser?
 
Well, whatever Ryan's value is, would be part of the overall value of the club since he's still under contract.
But the crazy player valuations must have really pushed up the value of the club. Buying Fraser would be like buying a lower league club!
 
In eleven months time, given a reasonable season for us and no bad injuries, the lad stands to pocket 9/10ths of an absolute fortune
 
If we accept that we lose Fraser for nothing next summer. And if we agree that survival for another year in the PL is worth 100m (as a round figure), and a middling position worth ~120m. Then an actuary could produce a model for how much that 1 season of Fraser's goals and assists are worth in monetary terms. I'm certainly not an actuary. But based on a conservative estimate of a season, near but not quite as high as his last excellent season...I would have a 'finger in the air' punt that 25m isn't unreasonable.
 
...I think the fee should be what we would expect to pay to buy a replacement for Ryan? A player with PL experience to get in would cost around 20/25 million at least I would guesstimate?...someone like an Andros Townsend, Harry Wilson or Antonio?
 
canadiancherry said:
Well, whatever Ryan's value is, would be part of the overall value of the club since he's still under contract.
But the crazy player valuations must have really pushed up the value of the club. Buying Fraser would be like buying a lower league club!
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You could purchase a few of well run lower league clubs. Let alone the financially struggle ones.
 
Garbo said:
...I think the fee should be what we would expect to pay to buy a replacement for Ryan? A player with PL experience to get in would cost around 20/25 million at least I would guesstimate?...someone like an Andros Townsend, Harry Wilson or Antonio?
Click to expand...
For 20-25m, by the end of this season, all you would get is someone from the Championship who *might* be able to make it in the PL. I don't think you'd get someone of Fraser's proven quality.
I can't see us finding a straight replacement for under 40.
 
northstandmark said:
If we accept that we lose Fraser for nothing next summer. And if we agree that survival for another year in the PL is worth 100m (as a round figure), and a middling position worth ~120m. Then an actuary could produce a model for how much that 1 season of Fraser's goals and assists are worth in monetary terms. I'm certainly not an actuary. But based on a conservative estimate of a season, near but not quite as high as his last excellent season...I would have a 'finger in the air' punt that 25m isn't unreasonable.
Click to expand...

Survival is 200m with parachute payments. That’s the value of keeping your best players.

Unfortunately from an actuarial point of view you can’t calculate how many chances and goals Frasers replacement will get or other players upping their ante because they are now allowed set pieces.

We worried about Ritchie going but Fraser came back from Ipswich and took up that assist and goals slack.
 
If Fraser leaves then Mahoney could come back an...

If Fraser leaves then Hyndman could come back an...

oh never mind.
 
canadiancherry said:
For 20-25m, by the end of this season, all you would get is someone from the Championship who *might* be able to make it in the PL. I don't think you'd get someone of Fraser's proven quality.
I can't see us finding a straight replacement for under 40.
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I can if we use our supposed international scouting network to look overseas.
 

Good spot!!

Yes I meant 300m. If you stay up you get minimum two years 100m tv money and then 100m parachutes. Obvs this is not precise amount but fag packet calculation to prove the point.
 
Neil Dawson said:
Good spot!!

Yes I meant 300m. If you stay up you get minimum two years 100m tv money and then 100m parachutes. Obvs this is not precise amount but fag packet calculation to prove the point.
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If we get relegated this season we will get this season's Premier League TV money plus whatever the parachute payments are. If we stay up this season but get relegated the following year, we will get this season's AND next season's Premier League TV money, plus whatever the parachute payments are.

Therefore the net benefit of staying up this year is the difference, i.e. one season's TV money (??£120m plus £2m per place??).
 
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