New Forest Cherry
Star Player
Obviously new here as you don’t realise the term ‘bedwetters’ was so last year.
not really, judging by the previous 14 pages of (mainly) shite....
Obviously new here as you don’t realise the term ‘bedwetters’ was so last year.
To add to this discussion, I found this worrying table (prior to the Hull game). It's come through a bit small, but in terms of xG points we are fighting a relegation battle (joint 21st)
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Although, yesterday's performance in terms of xG was much better. The biggest chance was Marcondes' although not sure if this got a flick from a defender, in which case it was a great block. Then there was Dom's header, his shot after interception from the keeper, although he had to hit this immediately, and Dom again from wide on the right (the xG looks too high for this one). Ironically, yesterday's game was one of our best for creating chances.
FWIW, I thought Mepham had a very good game.
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It has its flaws for sure. But generally in seems to be a good indicator, the teams with the highest expected goals last season were the top three in the league. Conversely Reading started the season on fire and were early leaders, despite a low expected goals total ie the were just very clinical. Statisticians we’re adamant that this would eventually catch up with them and they were right.so their free header in the 53rd minute from roughly 8 yards out is 0.25 of a chance?
further proof that this XG thing really is total garbage
so their free header in the 53rd minute from roughly 8 yards out is 0.25 of a chance?
further proof that this XG thing really is total garbage
It has its flaws for sure. But generally in seems to be a good indicator, the teams with the highest expected goals last season were the top three in the league. Conversely Reading started the season on fire and were early leaders, despite a low expected goals total ie the were just very clinical. Statisticians we’re adamant that this would eventually catch up with them and they were right.
Fulham and The Baggies running away with the league. Best we can achieve now will be play-offs from this point.
'Big chances'.... 'Massive chances'.....lol what a load of twaddle.https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/sport/19545034.amp/?__twitter_impression=true
"I think it was a frustrating day to be fair, I think that’s fair to say,"
Just see the expected goals chart that Matt posted. For all the deficits of expected goals, and for all the failures to generate chances in previous games this season, today we created enough chances that we were odds on to score. At Hull it was finishing that let us down, if we had the finishing from the previous games (where we had an insane conversion rate making up for our poor chance creation) we'd probably have won by 3.'Big chances'.... 'Massive chances'.....lol what a load of twaddle.
The fact that Hull only had one chance of note (crossbar), and that Nyland didn't make a save does suggest a level of control. However it certainly didn't feel overly controlled in the ground!Just see the expected goals chart that Matt posted. For all the deficits of expected goals, and for all the failures to generate chances in previous games this season, today we created enough chances that we were odds on to score. At Hull it was finishing that let us down, if we had the finishing from the previous games (where we had an insane conversion rate making up for our poor chance creation) we'd probably have won by 3.
That's not to say the performance was perfect and we should do the exact same every game. As others have pointed out, Brooks was silent for much of it and Anthony also had a bit less spark than in previous games, the latter of which may just be fatigue after playing pretty much every minute as soon as breaking into the first team. Marcondes, though he got on the ball more than previous games, which is an improvement, still didn't show much aside from a few crosses and arriving for the one shot, we need more out of him. And the Pearson+Lerma combination was overly defensive, though the lack of Billing (illness) and Stan (injury) did limit options in the center of the park. Creating over 2 expected goals is fairly respectable, especially when the opponent is limited to scraps, but we'd all love to see it be 3 or 4 (and, you know, some of them go in), which improvements in such areas mentioned will facilitate.
And just since no one has really mentioned him, I think Rogers looked okay for his first minutes in the league. Not a ton of time on the pitch, but he showed some hustle and had a good header back toward the penalty spot that we were unfortunate no one got to, I'm gonna stay optimistic and hope we can get something out of him and allow Anthony some rest.
legit q but think about it. Not only did he not score, it wasn’t even on target either.so their free header in the 53rd minute from roughly 8 yards out is 0.25 of a chance?
further proof that this XG thing really is total garbage
legit q but think about it. Not only did he not score, it wasn’t even on target either.
I would be amazed if we didn't get automatic promotion, so don't see us fading badly. However as stated the real test for us will be if Silva can keep us in the Premier, something Ranieri & Parker couldn't do. I've got nothing against Bournemouth & am actually trying to be objective. My comments on our former manager & your current boss is based on 2 years plus experience. I genuinely hope he's learnt & is willing to play football with the handbrake off, but when I saw Bournemouth bottom of the shots on goal stats it was a familiar scenario from what we've witnessed. Anyway I'm not here to argue or slate a decent football club in Bournemouth. I wish you well & hope Parker adapts his style and progresses as a manager.
It probably takes into account that the ball was in the air and not on the ground which would make it harder.does xG take into account the relative incompetence of the player who has the chance?
that can only explain the missing 0.75
To add to this discussion, I found this worrying table (prior to the Hull game). It's come through a bit small, but in terms of xG points we are fighting a relegation battle (joint 21st)
View attachment 6294
Although, yesterday's performance in terms of xG was much better. The biggest chance was Marcondes' although not sure if this got a flick from a defender, in which case it was a great block. Then there was Dom's header, his shot after interception from the keeper, although he had to hit this immediately, and Dom again from wide on the right (the xG looks too high for this one). Ironically, yesterday's game was one of our best for creating chances.
FWIW, I thought Mepham had a very good game.
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I think most people would wish Fulham well - friendly fans and usually play decent football plus one of the best London away games.
as you can tell I am not a great fan of silva but he should get the job done to go up just less convinced of him in the prem.