SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
Crazy. I think forest's xG was well below Fulham's too so you'd have taken this before the game. More ammo for the people that don't like stats though as it turned out.
xG Timelines
- Thread starter Matt Stevenson
- Start date
Crazy. I think forest's xG was well below Fulham's too so you'd have taken this before the game. More ammo for the people that don't like stats though as it turned out.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Yes, you interpreted it correctly. Each shot has its own individual rating, which for simplicity I’ve just added. I could do something more complicated but I think this would be harder to explain. It’s rare to get passages of play over 1, the most obvious would be a penalty save that fell to the taker for a tap in.
it’s a bit like a bug bear of mine in tennis where they say a person saved 5 break points, but lost the game on the sixth, so actually the first 5 meant nothing
Matt Stevenson
First Team
It was Fulham 1.57 Forest 1.20. Surridge had a big chance 65% that was well saved. I had the radio on, and the pictures from the Fulham game and thought it was going to be 2-0.
Thanks for explaining, I don't expect you to do anything complicated, what you provide is awesome. I am more surprised by the actual stats provided don't differentiate between multiple passages of play. I guess for higher profile games they may well do and these games are just number crunched.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Here's the xG timeline. Unfortunate timing meant I was at a wedding not the game, but as the groom was a Forest fan, the day could have been much worse.
There were 7 chances rated as 1/6 or better - 1 to Blackburn and 6 to us.
The first was BIlling's free kick which hit the wall, the second was our opener, Phillips brought the ball forward from the back and hit it long to Billing, who headed the ball into Solanke. A chest trap brought it into his path for a one-touch finish into the bottom right corner (35%). Seven minutes later Blackburn had their main chance. Brereton-Diaz beat the offside trap, and fired against the post with Phillips closing in.
Based on the xG the game went dull for almost 30 minutes. before AFCB had two chances in succession, Zemura driving in from the left and shooting from a tight angle (1 in 5) and Lerma's follow up (1 in 12) that was cleared off the line. 10 minutes later was the best chance of the match, Solanke chasing his on flick on, went past two defenders, but shot at a good height for the keeper, when you expected he would slot it in a corner. (56%) The goal came 3 minutes later and may count as a counter attack goal, the ball reached Dembele (on for Anthony) who went pass Van Hecke, but was brought down, however the ball ran to Solanke, he bided his time, and picked out the run of Billing across the defenders who produced an unstoppable finish (44%). On 79 minutes it was all over, Solanke harassed the defender, the ball fell for Dembele, who nutmegged the defender with presumably a pass to Billing, who beat the keeper at the near post (1 in 4). That was the last effort of any probability in the game. Job done.
There were 7 chances rated as 1/6 or better - 1 to Blackburn and 6 to us.
The first was BIlling's free kick which hit the wall, the second was our opener, Phillips brought the ball forward from the back and hit it long to Billing, who headed the ball into Solanke. A chest trap brought it into his path for a one-touch finish into the bottom right corner (35%). Seven minutes later Blackburn had their main chance. Brereton-Diaz beat the offside trap, and fired against the post with Phillips closing in.
Based on the xG the game went dull for almost 30 minutes. before AFCB had two chances in succession, Zemura driving in from the left and shooting from a tight angle (1 in 5) and Lerma's follow up (1 in 12) that was cleared off the line. 10 minutes later was the best chance of the match, Solanke chasing his on flick on, went past two defenders, but shot at a good height for the keeper, when you expected he would slot it in a corner. (56%) The goal came 3 minutes later and may count as a counter attack goal, the ball reached Dembele (on for Anthony) who went pass Van Hecke, but was brought down, however the ball ran to Solanke, he bided his time, and picked out the run of Billing across the defenders who produced an unstoppable finish (44%). On 79 minutes it was all over, Solanke harassed the defender, the ball fell for Dembele, who nutmegged the defender with presumably a pass to Billing, who beat the keeper at the near post (1 in 4). That was the last effort of any probability in the game. Job done.
JohnHold
First Team
Re "the best chance of the match": when Solanke first got the ball, the xG of that piece of possession would have been as good as zero.
I'm still trying to figure this out.
Given Solanke has played pretty much every game, how can you have an XG without him in the team?
Whats the XG of the groom getting too wasted to consummate the marriage?
I bet 40 per cent of marriages aren't consummated whereby the striker has scored already pre match.
If the striker hasn't scored before the vowels, the XG would almost certainly be 100 per cent, given the situation.
What's the XG of a drunk bride, compared to a drunk groom?
Does religion come into it?
Is the XG lower if the wedding DJ plays 'The Macarana'
Is Auntie Phyllis more like to score, simply because it's a wedding?
If it's a free bar, what's the expected XG of Psycho Dave,from Gloucester, who was only invited because it adds to the wedding present list XG.
What is the XG that someone will really fck this wedding up?
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Yes, agreed. I guess it is a bit like saying Maradona, had a tap-in when he went round Shilton in 1986.
Brilliant awareness and then skill from Solanke to set-up the chance, but having got there, it was probably one of the easier chances (if not the easiest in the match)
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Sorry for the lax wording. The Solanke values stayed the same, but because he's scored so more than everyone else, it makes it hard to see the values for the others. So it was one graph where I have plotted Solanke's point, and one graph where I omitted Solanke's point, so you could see the values for Anthony, Christie, Billing etc, more clearly,
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Here's the xG timeline from last night, although it highlights limitations of the xG stat.
Despite being largely in complete control for the majority of the second half we didn't actually create too many clear chances. In terms of chances above 1 in 8, there were three, all to Forest. Moore's goal was rated harder than I thought it was (1 in 16) my only possible explanation is that normally the keeper would have expected a shot and been set and ready to make a save, whereas Forest were caught off guard.
The first big chance was when Surridge hit the bar in the 9th minute. The next was in the 78th minute when the ball found Yates unchallenged near the penalty spot, but he couldn't sort his feet out in time (about 1 in 2).
In the 83rd minute, came the winner, superb deception from Billing who found Moore, who bent it into the far corner. The final chance came in the 99th minute with their keeper flicking one on at the near post, but the xG wouldn't have factored in the fact he was facing in the wrong direction.
But who cares - we won!
Despite being largely in complete control for the majority of the second half we didn't actually create too many clear chances. In terms of chances above 1 in 8, there were three, all to Forest. Moore's goal was rated harder than I thought it was (1 in 16) my only possible explanation is that normally the keeper would have expected a shot and been set and ready to make a save, whereas Forest were caught off guard.
The first big chance was when Surridge hit the bar in the 9th minute. The next was in the 78th minute when the ball found Yates unchallenged near the penalty spot, but he couldn't sort his feet out in time (about 1 in 2).
In the 83rd minute, came the winner, superb deception from Billing who found Moore, who bent it into the far corner. The final chance came in the 99th minute with their keeper flicking one on at the near post, but the xG wouldn't have factored in the fact he was facing in the wrong direction.
But who cares - we won!
DJ
Moderator
Thanks Matt, this one certainly does highlight its limitations, but interesting nonetheless.
Man of the match poll - https://bournemouth.vitalfootball.co.uk/vital-verdict-afcb-v-nottm-forest/
Man of the match poll - https://bournemouth.vitalfootball.co.uk/vital-verdict-afcb-v-nottm-forest/
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Here's the xG timeline. It looked a convincing display with AFCB registering 5 chances rated above 1 in 5 or better, and restricting Millwall to no shots rated over 1 in 10. Plus we had a disallowed goal (which may well have stood if reviewed by VAR).
The first big chance fell to Marcondes, Smith's long ball putting him behind the Millwall defence, but he drilled it straight at Bialkowski (1 in 4). Soon after, Solanke was through, but a defender made a good block as he attempted to find the far corner (1 in 5).
From the stats, the game died down a bit with no real chance until the goal. The exceptions, which would all not feature on xG, based on the footage on COWS were (1) a heavy touch from Phillips that led to a Millwall player nipping in but then going down easily under Phillips' recovery challenge, but there was a penalty appeal (2) a great run from Zemura to slide the ball accross the six-yard box that Solanke just couldn't reach and (3) a Marcondes finish, that Zemura jumped over which nestled in the bottom left corner. The Millwall players' reactions suggested they all thought it would stand, but Zemura was in an offside position, although how much that affected the keeper is debatable.
The goal came in the 81st minute, Billing stealing a few yards on a quick throw in to put Moore clean through. Anthony was alongside him for what should have been a tap-in, but the Welshman is full of confidence and finished well (1 in 4 - although this may be an underestimate as the keeper couldn't just focus on saving the ball with Anthony unmarked),
There was time for two more chances, although they were in the same incident. Billing shot from eight yards out in a crowded area (1 in 2) with the ball falling back to Anthony (1 in 3).
The first big chance fell to Marcondes, Smith's long ball putting him behind the Millwall defence, but he drilled it straight at Bialkowski (1 in 4). Soon after, Solanke was through, but a defender made a good block as he attempted to find the far corner (1 in 5).
From the stats, the game died down a bit with no real chance until the goal. The exceptions, which would all not feature on xG, based on the footage on COWS were (1) a heavy touch from Phillips that led to a Millwall player nipping in but then going down easily under Phillips' recovery challenge, but there was a penalty appeal (2) a great run from Zemura to slide the ball accross the six-yard box that Solanke just couldn't reach and (3) a Marcondes finish, that Zemura jumped over which nestled in the bottom left corner. The Millwall players' reactions suggested they all thought it would stand, but Zemura was in an offside position, although how much that affected the keeper is debatable.
The goal came in the 81st minute, Billing stealing a few yards on a quick throw in to put Moore clean through. Anthony was alongside him for what should have been a tap-in, but the Welshman is full of confidence and finished well (1 in 4 - although this may be an underestimate as the keeper couldn't just focus on saving the ball with Anthony unmarked),
There was time for two more chances, although they were in the same incident. Billing shot from eight yards out in a crowded area (1 in 2) with the ball falling back to Anthony (1 in 3).
GaryRB
UTC Legend
Interesting as always.
Thanks for these posts @Matt Stevenson they've been a good addition to the forum this season and hope they continue into next
Thanks for these posts @Matt Stevenson they've been a good addition to the forum this season and hope they continue into next
SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
Seconded. Obviously there's plenty to argue about with how they rate chances but it definitely adds an interesting element to post match analysis.
Out of interest Matt we had the xG table earlier in the season that many people suggested showed we were overperforming. I think there were a few different versions. Any idea what the picture is after 46 games?
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Hi SDD,
I must have read your mind as I was working on this in the background for my own interest.
See 2 graphs below, one which plots two lines, one for actual points and one for estimated xG points (more on this to come), and one which looks at the difference between the two numbers.
In doing this, I assumed that any result where the xG values in a game were within 0.5 of a goal of each other could be called a draw, otherwise the team will the higher value would win. It's completely arbitrary, but felt reasonable.
Looking at the difference graph, you can see that in the early part of the season, we had been riding our luck, and after game 15, (Reading away) we had 11 more points than xG suggested. However, we then had a run of results which 'should' have been better, and after game 33 (Peterborough at home) xG estimated points was only 1 lower than actual points.
At the end we finished with 5 points more than 'expected', which is probably a combination of luck, good goalkeeping and clinical finishes. So, I don't think there is any compelling reason to say we didn't deserve to finish second, although after 15 games there was concerns.
I must have read your mind as I was working on this in the background for my own interest.
See 2 graphs below, one which plots two lines, one for actual points and one for estimated xG points (more on this to come), and one which looks at the difference between the two numbers.
In doing this, I assumed that any result where the xG values in a game were within 0.5 of a goal of each other could be called a draw, otherwise the team will the higher value would win. It's completely arbitrary, but felt reasonable.
Looking at the difference graph, you can see that in the early part of the season, we had been riding our luck, and after game 15, (Reading away) we had 11 more points than xG suggested. However, we then had a run of results which 'should' have been better, and after game 33 (Peterborough at home) xG estimated points was only 1 lower than actual points.
At the end we finished with 5 points more than 'expected', which is probably a combination of luck, good goalkeeping and clinical finishes. So, I don't think there is any compelling reason to say we didn't deserve to finish second, although after 15 games there was concerns.
SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
Saw this, which isn't a million miles from your projected total... But has a few teams doing better than us.
I find the overall xGF and xGA much more interesting than the points. As Matt mentioned in his, what figure do you use for a draw turning into a victory\defeat.
So, West Brom forgot how to score most of the season? That is quite a lot of missed goals! (Unless I have misread the table!)
So, West Brom forgot how to score most of the season? That is quite a lot of missed goals! (Unless I have misread the table!)
SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
There must be a pattern or reason for it. Loads of low quality longshots boosting the numbers maybe? They did have more shots and you would probably say we were guilty of trying to find the perfect chance more than we might have done. I suppose the proof is in the pudding.
https://www.beinsports.com/au/efl-championship/statistics
