I was thinking the same thing about long shots. In theory it shouldn't matter if you have 100 1% chances vs 10 10% you should get 1 goal.
The law of large numbers only applies once you get 10's of thousands I believe, so many poor percent shots may not be the best way of going about things when you get around 600 shots a season (looking at the beinsports stats). Obviously you could get super lucky (or skillful?) and end up scoring loads...
With stats and the like being used more and more in football, I wonder what conclusions managers are drawing from this. It felt like under Eddie in the Prem, especially the latter years and Parker this year that we didn't take too many long shots, but seemed to do more last season. Not that I have any proof of this.
