Stats 23/24

The Opta expected goals had Solake as most likely to score for AFCB (0.62) with Tavernier at 0.25. For assists, Kelly was at 0.40, and Tavernier and Cook at approximately 0.20.

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About 9 points to the good against this tracker's pace:
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Regarding the most recent Opta EPL season simulation:
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Opta Football Predictions | The Analyst

Opta football predictions for the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and UEFA Europa League.
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The teams have formed into clusters: the first 3, then the next 2, then 6 through 13, the pack in which AFCB now find themselves. Our lowest projected finish is 15th, with about a 24% chance of a top 10 finish. It looks like it's between Forest and Luton for the final relegation spot, absent more points deductions.
 
Latest xG of 1.1 not far from our average:
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The 0.2 xGA from Palace is the lowest of the season against us, but since it can't be less than zero, it doesn't stand out statistically.


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AFCB have lost only 5 of the last 20 League games: twice to City, Spurs, Liverpool, and the one that got away at Fulham. Those 20 games correspond to what I call our defensive transformation, which began with the win against Burnley. The chart above makes that apparent, and I used this one to confirm it:
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Here is the xG from the C Palace game which was a game of few chances, as for the second time in a row a team came to Dean Court looking for a 0-0 draw. Palace ended up with an xG below 0.2, although this doesn’t include the goal ruled out for offside. The first 25 minutes were uneventful, with xGs of 0.03 for AFCB and 0.00 for Palace. Then Palace’s big legitimate chance of the evening happened; Scott was caught on the ball in our defensive third and Mateta had a chance that was struck tamely at Neto (rated 1 in 8). Bournemouth’s first big chance came in the 37th minute when Billing met a cross with his header tipped onto the bar by Henderson (rated 1 in 9). From the corner, Kelly headed wide with Henderson stranded (1 in 7). Philip had a similarly rated free kick hit the wall 7 minutes later. Just before half time was the disallowed goal and at the break the xG was AFCB 0.47, C Palace 0.16. In the second half Bournemouth were dominant, without creating many chances. Solanke had a 1 in 10 chance in the 65th minute and we went ahead in the 78th minute, Semenyo cutting in from the right to set up Kluivert who fired home (36%). Despite falling behind Palace still appeared to be in a stupor, with the only remaining good chance falling to Semenyo (1 in 9). The final xG was AFCB 1.10, C Palace 0.19; the xGs produced by Understat were more in our favour being AFCB 1.31, C Palace 0.17.

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The average positions of our players look distorted as Tavernier (16) started on the right, but switched to the left at half time so appears central. The biggest surprise was Cook (4) who dropped into the back four at times, allowing Kelly (5) to push left and Ouattara (11) to move forward more. At halftime Semenyo (24) replaced Scott (14) with presumably Ouattara playing more defensively, and Cook moving forward. On 63 minutes Kerkez (3) was brought on at left back, for Ouattara, and Kluivert (19) replaced Philip (29) . In the 90th minute Unal (26) replaced Solanke (9), and Aarons (37) came on for Smith (15) who had been clattered, with the VAR officials somehow checking for a penalty.

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Kelly had most touches with 90. Tavernier had most touches in the opposition half (47) and in the final third with 32.

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We had 21 touches in the opposition’s penalty area with Solanke having 5 and Philip 4.

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Zabarnyi attempted 62 passes, with Cook having 60 each. Christie attempted most in the opposition half (30) with Tavernier attempting most in the final third with 12. AFCB averaged 79% completion. From the starting eleven Christie, Tavernier and Zabarnyi had values over 85%. Neto only achieved 52%, this is the second game running he ahs a low score and may show that he is being asked to play it longer.

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AFCB attempted 21 crosses being successful with 4 (2 from Smith).

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Our players tried to take on a man 32 times being successful 13 times. Despite coming on at halftime Semenyo had joint highest take-ons with 8 (along with Tavernier). Semenyo had the most successful attempts (5)

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We created 8 chances (3 big). C Palace created 2 chances with none big.

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We had 11 attempts (3 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 7 times. C Palace had 3 attempts, 0 big, and hit the target twice.

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AFCB won 15 of 30 aerials duals. Zabarnyi won 3 from 5 and Ouattara and Kelly both won 2 from 2.

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AFCB won 20 out of 30 tackles. Cook and Kerkez both made 5 each winning 3 and 5 respectively.

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Kelly made most defensive actions with 18. Christie made most interceptions (3), Kelly made most recoveries (10), and most clearances (7). Bournemouth made no blocks.

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According to Opta, AFCB made one error leading to a shot which was Scott being caught oh the ball.

The foul count was AFCB 14, C Palace 12. Five players made 2 fouls and Kelly was fouled three times.

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Matt Stevenson said:
Here is the xG from the C Palace game which was a game of few chances, as for the second time in a row a team came to Dean Court looking for a 0-0 draw. Palace ended up with an xG below 0.2, although this doesn’t include the goal ruled out for offside. The first 25 minutes were uneventful, with xGs of 0.03 for AFCB and 0.00 for Palace. Then Palace’s big legitimate chance of the evening happened; Scott was caught on the ball in our defensive third and Mateta had a chance that was struck tamely at Neto (rated 1 in 8). Bournemouth’s first big chance came in the 37th minute when Billing met a cross with his header tipped onto the bar by Henderson (rated 1 in 9). From the corner, Kelly headed wide with Henderson stranded (1 in 7). Philip had a similarly rated free kick hit the wall 7 minutes later. Just before half time was the disallowed goal and at the break the xG was AFCB 0.47, C Palace 0.16. In the second half Bournemouth were dominant, without creating many chances. Solanke had a 1 in 10 chance in the 65th minute and we went ahead in the 78th minute, Semenyo cutting in from the right to set up Kluivert who fired home (36%). Despite falling behind Palace still appeared to be in a stupor, with the only remaining good chance falling to Kluivert (1 in 9). The final xG was AFCB 1.10, C Palace 0.19; the xGs produced by Understat were more in our favour being AFCB 1.31, C Palace 0.17.

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You missed out arguably the best chance of the game, Semenyo firing at the keepers legs when played through by Kerkez in the second half.
 
A disappointing loss at Luton leaves us about 7 points to the good against this 40-point pace:

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The Opta season simulation gives us about a 15% chance of a Top 10 finish. Finishing 6th or 7th is about a 200 to 1 shot. Lowest reasonably likely finish is 15th.
 
Opta's figure of 0.41 for xG is our lowest of the season:

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I would have thought we produced more than that in the first half alone, but I guess those chances were not high-value. Should probably have managed more against shorthanded Luton, "but that's why they play the games."

The xGA figure of 1.46 was quite typical of recent performance:

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Here is the xG timeline for the Luton game. I couldn’t follow this game live but the stats are less encouraging than people’s view of the game. AFCB hit the post twice in the first 15 minutes but both were hard chances that you wouldn’t expect to score from. The first was a Tavernier free kick (rated 1 in 30) and the second was a Kluivert shot (1 in 20). At half time neither side had created a good chance and the xG was Luton 0.23 and AFCB 0.19. Luton had the best chance after the break with the ball falling to Morris with his shot beaten away well by Neto (1 in 12). Soon after we had taken the lead, Tavernier striking from outside the box, but unlike Kluivert’s earlier effort this was just inside the post (rated 1 in 30). The game remained bitty, with Morris hitting the same post Bournemouth had hit twice (1 in 30) and at 70 minutes, the xG was Luton 0.58 AFCB 0.29. Luton then began their comeback, Clark made a run through the centre, with Bournemouth players not wanting to give away the foul, a challenge between Kelly and Berry saw the ball fall fortuitously for Clark who had continued his run and he put it neatly into the corner (1 in 5). Then in the final minute, Morris took advantage of a Zabarnyi slip to guide the ball into the far corner from closs range following a left wing cross (1 in 2). There were no more chances and the final xG was Luton 1.40, AFCB 0.34. Understat had it closer, but also thought Luton had the higher value (1.30 vs 0.62).

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