The away win yesterday lands AFCB almost 6 points ahead of the 40-point pace this tracker depicts:
Block 5 is off to the right start. I really want us to start winning at home. This month should provide good opportunities. I noted yesterday that the Opta season simulation had us at 0.1% chance of relegation.
What's interesting about the xG chart to me is that our two wins with lowest xG are both against Burnley.
It's tempting to identify our last two matches as signaling a shift down in xG, but one was against chronic cheaters Man. City, and we approached the two matches much differently. I'm expecting us to return to attacking form for the rest of March.
Yesterday's xGA figure is consistent with our improved defensive performances that began with home fixture against Burnley.
Here is the xG from the Shef U game. The first real chance was a penalty to AFCB (rated 79%). Solanke slipped as he took it though with the ball ending up over the bar. Bournemouth were largely dominant but fell behind in the 26th minute, Hamer prodded the ball past Kerkez to Bogle, whose shot was parried by Neto, but only to Hamer to score (1 in 4). The rest of the half only had bitty chances, with two 1 in 10 falling to Semenyo, until just before the break when Shef U had two big chances, both from headers, with first Davies and then McBurnie (both rated 1 in 5), at half time the xG was AFCB 1.43 Shef U 0.85. The second half started fairly flatly with the first real incident being Shef U’s second goal. A mix up saw Neto punch the ball into Solanke and Robinson scored from the rebound (1 in 4). With 20 minutes to go things were looking bleak, but AFCB stepped through the gears. In the 73rd minute Ouattara got free to head home from Christie’s corner (2 in 5). Four minutes later, Zabarnyi had a shot, 4 minutes later Ouattara had a header, both rated as 1 in 5. The pressure was building with multiple 1 in 10 chances until Unal met Ouattara’s flicked header to equalise (rated 28%). There was still time for a couple of 1 in 16 chances, but the Cherries couldn’t find the winner. The xG in the last 20 minutes was AFCB 1.57 Shef U 0.00, with the final xG being AFCB 3.35, Shef U 1.25. (Note, the site I use missed off two AFCB chances hence why the graph is low). The xGs produced by Understat were higher being AFCB 3.93, Shef U 1.92.
The average positions of our players were very high (with only Neto (1), Mepham (6) and Zabarnyi (27) being in our own half. Cook (4) and Christie (10) were in front of the centre backs, with Smith (15) and Kerkez (3) playing high in almost a 2-4-4 formation. The first change was at half-time when Kerkez (who was on a yellow card) was replaced with Ouattara (11). Just before we conceded the second, Sinisterra (17) replaced Tavernier (16) and Unal (26) came on for Kluivert (19). On 74 minutes, Christie and Smith were replaced with Philip (29) and Scott (14). Cook switched to right-back. I’m not sure how all the attacking players were being utilised, but we probably had 7 men deep in the Shef U half for the last 20 minutes.
Mepham had most touches with 101 followed by Zabarnyi with 95. Tavernier had most touches in the opposition half (59) and in the final third with 54.
We had 75 touches in the opposition’s penalty area (a season high) with four players having 10 or more: Sinisterra (14), Solanke and Ouattarra (11 each) and Kluivert 10. Sinisterra’s value was the highest of the season and he was came on in the 62nd minute.
Mepham attempted 93 passes and Zabarnyi 85. Tavernier attempted most in the opposition’s half (49) and most in the final third with 44. AFCB averaged 84% completion. The three highest from the starting eleven were Neto (90%), Tavernier (89%) and Kerkez (88%) .
AFCB attempted 55 crosses (a season high), being successful with 15.
Our players tried to take on a man 16 times being successful 8 times. Ouattara was successful 3 times from 3 attempts and Sinisterra 3 times from 4 attempts.
We created 29 chances (5 big). Shef U created 8 chances with 1 big.
We had 32 attempts (a season high) (including six big (another season record) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 11 times (another record). Shef U had 13 attempts, three big, and hit the target 9 times. Semenyo had 6 attempts and Ouattara 5.
Neto and Zabarnyi made joint-most defensive actions with 12. Four players made 1 interception each, Neto made most recoveries (11), Zabarnyi made most clearances (4) and Kluivert and Tavernier made 1 block each.
The foul count was AFCB 12, Shef U 11. Solanke made three fouls, whilst Christie, Smith and Solanke were fouled twice.
According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to chances or goals.
The Opta expected goals had Solanke (0.86) as most likely to score, mainly due to the penalty, for AFCB followed by Ouattara (0.72), Semenyo (0.42) and Unal (0.41). For assists, Christie was highest with 0.46, although Mepham, Ouattara and Tavernier were all over 0.30. The xG was the highest of the season
The running record of xG gives another view of Matt's discussion:
It shows a significant jump up to our highest xG for this season against bottom-dwelling Sheffield.
The latest figure in the xGA series is right on our post-transformation average of 1.2:
I think it's worth repeating that we have lost only 5 of our last 18 League matches: twice to chronic cheaters Manchester City, Liverpool, Spurs, and Fulham.
Here is the xG from the Luton game which was the proverbial game of two halfs. Luton didn’t have many shots, but 5 of the 8 were classified as big chances. They scored with their first chance. Poor communication between Cook and Smith gave Chong a free header from close range (rated 56%). Four minutes later and Morris had a header in the six-yard box blocked (1 in 5). Bournemouth had a similar rated chance 3 minutes later when Sinisterra shot from wide of the right of the six-yard box, before the game settled down for 15 mins. Luton then scored with a well worked goal. A one-two left Smith out of position and Doughty crossed for Ogbene to make it 2-0 (rated 52%). AFCB were only having small chances and just before the break Barkley broke through with Cook deeper than the centre-backs playing him on and hit a hard shot into the goal (1 in 8). At half time we were 3-0 down with the xG AFCB 0.77 Luton 1.44.
AFCB got the start to the second half they needed with a brilliant goal from Solanke tricking the defender and chipping the advancing keeper (1 in 3). 14 minutes later we were incredibly level. In the 62nd minute Zarbarnyi rose in a crowd scene to nod in, with the ball having crossed the line before it was cleared (2 in 5). Two minutes later we scored again, a raking ball from Christie found Semenyo who jinked into the area and slotted it back into the near post (1 in 16) In the 70th minute Luton had two big chances – the first was a Morris header (rated 3 in 10) followed by a Barkley strike (1 in 4). Bournemouth kept pushing and Semenyo played it to Unal wide who threaded the ball back to him to make it 4-3. (1 in 5) Still AFCB kept pushing forward and in the 97th minute Unal had a chance to seal the game but didn’t beat the keeper (1 in 5). The final xG was AFCB 2.35, Luton 2.06; the xGs produced by Understat were higher being AFCB 2.84, Luton 2.79, both suggesting a draw may have been a fairer result.
The average positions of our players were high (with Mepham (6) being further back behind Zabarnyi (27) and with Ouattara being the only other starter in our own half. The reason Mepham and Zabarnyi are both central is because Iraola swapped who was left sided and who was right sided (thanks for this info Dibby). Cook (4) and Christie (10) again shielded the centre backs. Both Semenyo (24) and Sinisterra (17) held high positions and Scott (14) is advanced of Solanke (9) although Solanke dropped deeper after half-time. At 3-0 down Iraola made two changes at the break with Unal (26) coming on for Scott and playing alongside Solanke, and Tavernier (16) for Simisterra, probably to provide more defensive discipline in front of Ouattara. On 71 minutes and with the game level, Adams (18) came on for his league debut for Bournemouth, with Cook moving to a right back position. In the 90th minute Philip replaced Solanke, and 4 minutes into 9 added on, Hill (23) replaced Christie who had just received treatment and was likely required to spend 30 seconds on the sidelines.
Edited to note that Mepham and Zabarnyi had switched who played left and right at half time
Mepham attempted 58 passes, Christie 54 and Zabarnyi 53. Christie and Semenyo attempted most in the opposition’s half (29 each) and Semenyo most in the final third with 21. AFCB averaged 80% completion. From the starting eleven Sinisterra (100%), Mepham (90%) and Solanke (89%) performed best.
AFCB attempted 33 crosses being successful with 7 (4 from Cook).
Our players tried to take on a man 30 times being successful 19 times. Semenyo was successful 4 times from 5 attempts and Sinisterra 3 times from 4 attempts.
