Jermain Defoe

Druss_the_Legend - 23/5/2017 15:15

Red_Kettle - 23/5/2017 15:13

The Alchemist - 23/5/2017 14:57

Red_Kettle - 23/5/2017 14:50

He was never that fast? His game was never about his pace....either this year or when he started for us so he has had to no adapting. The guy is a finisher...from anywhere. In or out of the box. Its about timing, knowledge and above all else instinct.

Forget stupid stats and graphs....do you REALLY think hes the same but worse than Afobe?! Truely?! Event remotely the same?
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I don't think stats and graphs are stupid. They're not the only tool you should use to judge players but they are helpful, particularly when people are using nebulous stuff like 'instinct' to justify their opinion. I think Afobe is better than Defoe now, I also think Afobe has the potential to be at least as good as Defoe was at his peak but if we sign Defoe we may not get the chance to find out.
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Defoe at his peak was the best striker in the country - you honestly think Afobe can be better than that ?

That's the funniest thing I've read in ages :hihi:
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I know stats stuff doesn't go down very well on here but this season Afobe was in the top 20 players in Europe for expected goals per 90 minutes. He was ranked near players like Benzema. Now I don't think he's remotely in that class but I do think he has the potential to play regularly for a top six side, which was all that Defoe ever did at his peak.
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No he wasnt? WTF are you talking about?
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Expected goals is different to goals. Explanation here: http://cartilagefreecaptain.sbnation.com/2015/4/10/8381071/football-statistics-expected-goals-michael-caley-deadspin

Basically, Afobe has been borderline Champions League class in getting into excellent positions but has missed too many big chances. However, given his goalscoring record earlier in his career, and the quality of some of his finishes this season (it's not like he's Grabban, who panics when through on goal) there's a good chance his actual goals scored total will start to catch up with his expected goals total over time. In other words if he starts regularly next season he could easily get 15 goals.
 
What the heck does expected goals per ninety minutes even mean ??

Edited to say an explanation has appeared ...still
Balls though .
 
Red_Kettle - 23/5/2017 15:07

The Alchemist - 23/5/2017 14:54

Red_Kettle - 23/5/2017 14:43

The Alchemist - 23/5/2017 14:26

Stats, stats, stats - you can mould stats to suit any point of view.

The only real stat that matters is that Defoe scored 15 goals in the worst side in the league by a distance - I'd love some of our players to be that average.

Ted Knutson may think it is a bad deal but 99% of people, pundits and those involved in football that I jhave seen think it is a fantastic signing.

Do we believe the 1% or the 99% ?
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Pundits are mostly clueless. Defoe has scored, I think, 11 goals excluding penalties. That's decent, but unspectacular, given that he was Sunderland's only real attacking threat and their attacking plan, to the extent that they had one, was to get the ball to him somewhere near the penalty area and let him shoot on sight.

Like I say, I hope it works out, but the best case scenario is probably him scoring a dozen goals next season, and under 10 for each of the following two years, whilst slowing the development of Afobe and Mousset. It's certainly going to make new contract negotiations with King and Cook more challenging.
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Why do you think he would score less goals for us than he did with Sunderland ? We are a more attacking team and create a shed load more chances.

He may have been Sunderland's only attacking plan but they barely attacked all season so for him to score 15 goals is remarkable.

As for slowing development, maybe the extra competition will see the others try harder and play better themselves. Added competition makes the squad better. Maybe Afobe and Mousset might learn a lot too ?

I have no doubt the deals for Cook and King are already well in hand.
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He's 35 in October. Players generally get worse as they get older. There's also a good chance that he'll reduce the overall attacking effectiveness of the side because his all round game just isn't as good as Afobe's or King's. On the other hand we do get a lot more penalties than Sunderland so he might pad his stats with those.

I guess Afobe and particularly Mousset might learn a bit from Defoe but that seems like a pretty flimsy justification for the money we'll be spending. Stuff like experience, character, leadership and so on might be important but you don't pay £20 million for them.

Deals for Cook and King might be in hand but their agents won't be doing their jobs properly if the don't look at the money being offered Defoe and instantly double their demands.
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You are making a massive assumption that the figures quoted are correct as a basis for your arguments. I highly doubt one figure quoted in the press for wages or transfer fees for any of our players have been anywhere near correct over the last few years.

Defoe has played as an effective no. 9 and no. 10 and played the lone role too. You are making a very subjective assertion that Defoe's game is not as good as Afobe's. Most (and not necessarily just those on here) may well not agree. Defoe also has the most experience of any striker in the country so I'll have to disagree that he will lessen our attacking effectiveness - indeed, I think it will improve it due to the intelligence and knowledge and experience he has garnered over his career to know every nuance of being a top quality striker in the PL.

I'd normally agree with you about age but Defoe is not showing signs of getting worse and as we have seen also with Ibrahimovic this season, age s not necessarily a barrier.
 
Cool, we'll agree to disagree. Like I say I hope it works out, and I hope you're right that the figures quoted are wildly exaggerated.

 
wallmth - 23/5/2017 15:22

What the heck does expected goals per ninety minutes even mean ??

Edited to say an explanation has appeared ...still
Balls though .
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Excellent question. I think it probably comes down to this. Say we draw 0-0 with the Scum but miss a penalty, then basically we won 1-0.
 
Defoe can score goals. We know that.

But surely, if we could get better service for Mousset, King and Afobe would that not be money better spent?

 
wallmth - 23/5/2017 15:22

What the heck does expected goals per ninety minutes even mean ??

Edited to say an explanation has appeared ...still
Balls though .
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It really isn't. Almost all big clubs are using this sort of data now. It's not as if it's just a few geeks on the internet making things up
 
Cannot believe anyone on here doubting value of bringing Defoe back. Eddie has clearly wanted him ever since we got promoted, but only now has the chance. It's a no brainer. And as fans we should be relishing Jermain starting and finishing his career with us.
 
Not a fan of this signing. He'll score goals, sure, but at what cost? If it happens I will be interested to see who leaves and how EH sets us up next season and what Defoes role is.
 
The Alchemist - 23/5/2017 15:29

wallmth - 23/5/2017 15:22

What the heck does expected goals per ninety minutes even mean ??

Edited to say an explanation has appeared ...still
Balls though .
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Excellent question. I think it probably comes down to this. Say we draw 0-0 with the Scum but miss a penalty, then basically we won 1-0.
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No....actually we were only expected to win 1-0.... :think: ....

I think what red is trying to say is that Afobe gets into more goal positions than Defoe....and as soon as he masters the art of kicking the ball without falling over he'll be nailed on for next years golden boot.
 
Soccerbase stats. (Sub.).

Defoe - League Apps 399 (136) Goals 198. 0.37 per game.

Afobe - League Apps 109 (73) Goals 51. 0.28 per game.

King - League Apps 105 (54) Goals 28. 0.17 per game.

Wilson - League Apps 129 (18) Goals 55. 0.37 per game.

Defoe and Wilson have same goals per game.

But you have to take in the different leagues these players were in over that time.
 
The Alchemist - 23/5/2017 15:29

wallmth - 23/5/2017 15:22

What the heck does expected goals per ninety minutes even mean ??

Edited to say an explanation has appeared ...still
Balls though .
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Excellent question. I think it probably comes down to this. Say we draw 0-0 with the Scum but miss a penalty, then basically we won 1-0.
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Link to an expected goals map for Sunday's game: https://twitter.com/Caley_graphics/status/866329688943276033

The bigger the square the better the chance, goals are shaded in pink. It only shows shots / headers so Ibe's chance when he was put through isn't recorded. Obviously it isn't a complete reflection of the game but it is a way of measuring the quality of chances a team creates / concedes and is therefore much more useful than stuff like shots / shots on target.
 
Quite possibly the funniest thread of the year.

Afobe would be an amazing striker, if he actually scored goals? LOL you cant make comedy gold like this up.
 
Druss_the_Legend - 23/5/2017 15:47

Quite possibly the funniest thread of the year.

Afobe would be an amazing striker, if he actually scored goals? LOL you cant make comedy gold like this up.
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Druss, for once, I bloody agree with you :hehe:
 
What's wrong with just watching the game.....i don't need anyone to tell me how many chances we missed tbf......completely pointless.
 
Well he has scored six goals this season. And excluding penalties has scored more regularly than Defoe. So all the posters on this thread who are awe struck by the prospect of signing Defoe should also be pretty impressed with Afobe.

The point about expected goals is that Afobe has the potential to improve enormously.
 
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