Match report v Stoke
- Thread starter kirsikka
- Start date
TrueCherry
Star Player
And the Stoke forward was slightly offside anyway!
CherryBare
UTC Legend
I thought Rico had a really poor game, gave silly free kicks away in dangerous places, & poor decisions
davidwhitehead
Fans' Favourite
"After the exciting and smooth pass and move of the Brentford game, this was so mechanical and jerky Kraftwerk could probably have turned it into an album track."
Class !
Class !
Johnny Comelately
Star Player
I thought Stoke showed that they are:
a) Very fit.
b) Very physical.
c) Very boring.
a) Very fit.
b) Very physical.
c) Very boring.
Never said that I didn’t like him, I think he is a solid if unspectacular player. Certainly not awful. My point is that for what we paid for him should he not be contributing a bit more than solid and unspectacular at this level? Can you honestly say that he stands out as a class above?
Topfarrier
UTC Legend
They don't see many goals tbf.........not sure they understand what they're looking at.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Hi all,
I found out how to get the info to generate the expected goals timelines for each game. It doesn't take long to do, so I've put together this plot together for the Stoke game. It isn't pretty viewing, the two big leaps are for Joe Allen's shot that Bego saved, and the Stanislas goal. FWIW, the xG on Solanke's 'sitter' was 0.09.
Please ignore, if you hate the beautiful game being reduced to stats, it does help me try to rationalise each game though. Here, we have to consider ourselves lucky to get all three points. Interestingly, Fletcher came off after 25 mins with Stoke on 0.52 xG
UTCIAD
Matt
I found out how to get the info to generate the expected goals timelines for each game. It doesn't take long to do, so I've put together this plot together for the Stoke game. It isn't pretty viewing, the two big leaps are for Joe Allen's shot that Bego saved, and the Stanislas goal. FWIW, the xG on Solanke's 'sitter' was 0.09.
Please ignore, if you hate the beautiful game being reduced to stats, it does help me try to rationalise each game though. Here, we have to consider ourselves lucky to get all three points. Interestingly, Fletcher came off after 25 mins with Stoke on 0.52 xG
UTCIAD
Matt
Topfarrier
UTC Legend
Thanks for that.....can't really take it seriously if hit jumped that much for Allens 'shot'.....Tbh that graph doesn't bear any resemblance to the game i watched.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
With the disclaimer that they aren't my figures, I didn't think they were that far out. It is saying that based on all the chances there was most likely to be 1 goal in the game, equally likely to go to either side. With Allen's shot, it predicts that he would score nearly 1 in 4 from that position, which doesn't feel a long way out. I'm surprised Stanislas' position was also rated as 1 in 4 too though. xG does has its limitations though, such as assuming average skill for the striker and for the keeper / defence and simplification of positioning. How did you see the game? It is a genuine question.
I realised the interpolation of the graph didn't help so I rejigged it.
ChampagneCherry
First Team
It's interesting, but a lot of the low value increments seem to reflect pressure rather than reasonable half or good chances.
Would be a more meaningful stat for me if whoever works these out ignored the trivial ones and upweighted the better chances. Statistically Surridge's near post miss might be a low value, but when you look at that, plus Dom's plus two late Stan efforts, you would feel unlucky if you didn't take one of those, ignoring other bits and pieces.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
I guess they need to be included because sometimes the long-shots go in. I've just looked back and L Cook's goal against Reading had a 4% xG and Stacey's against Blackburn had a 2% chance. We seemed to be on the end of these after restart with Milivojevic and Silva free kicks.
The four instances you name make up 0.49, of the 0.71 total. The 0.49 implying that we would score one of those chances every other game. I agree that this seems a little low.
The other 0.22 was primarily made up from Junior's freekick in the 31st min, and Solanke's effort early in the second half, with other bits and pieces added a little.
For anyone interested the stats can be found here.
Stoke City vs Bournemouth Result - Score and Scorers | Infogol
I've included a screenshot of our attempts - the larger the circle the higher the probability. There are some attempts that I can't remember, the top right dot was from Rico in the 87th minute that had a 2% chance and I've blanked on that.
I think xG only counts the ones that people touch, so whilst my heart was in my mouth when Vokes looked like he may get to the ball in the last few minutes, this would score a zero. Stoke didn't increase their xG in the last 20 mins, so we must have defended reasonably well, although I'm a nervous viewer so wasn't feeling secure.
Whilst there are limitations, I do find it helps me rationalise when we've been robbed, or when we have got lucky. Although, I suspect that most of the time we probably could have known this without the xG figures.
The four instances you name make up 0.49, of the 0.71 total. The 0.49 implying that we would score one of those chances every other game. I agree that this seems a little low.
The other 0.22 was primarily made up from Junior's freekick in the 31st min, and Solanke's effort early in the second half, with other bits and pieces added a little.
For anyone interested the stats can be found here.
Stoke City vs Bournemouth Result - Score and Scorers | Infogol
I've included a screenshot of our attempts - the larger the circle the higher the probability. There are some attempts that I can't remember, the top right dot was from Rico in the 87th minute that had a 2% chance and I've blanked on that.
I think xG only counts the ones that people touch, so whilst my heart was in my mouth when Vokes looked like he may get to the ball in the last few minutes, this would score a zero. Stoke didn't increase their xG in the last 20 mins, so we must have defended reasonably well, although I'm a nervous viewer so wasn't feeling secure.
Whilst there are limitations, I do find it helps me rationalise when we've been robbed, or when we have got lucky. Although, I suspect that most of the time we probably could have known this without the xG figures.
Topfarrier
UTC Legend
Maybe i'm reading it wrong but that chart seems to infer that Stoke had better chances than us ....am i wrong?.......Personally i didn't think Stoke created anything that you call a big chance......Allen isn't beating Bego from that angle if he has 40 attempts never mind 4 !!........i think we had 3 big chances in the game....Sam's....Dom's and Stans goal......of the 3 Stans was probably the most difficult in fact.........Stans blocked effort from Dom's pull back was a clearer chance than any of Stoke's imo......
Matt Stevenson
First Team
You are reading the chart correctly, although the numbers are very close. Maybe the Allen probability is because it is based on an average player and not Allen.
I would hope someone like Danjuma would score more than one in 40 from there. I guess Stan's effort late on was only judged 8% because he had to put it through a lot of bodies, which as it turned out, did block the shot. I agree I'd expect that to be higher.The only other Stoke chances deemed better than 1/20 were Thompson's free kick that he put ito the side netting after Lerma had been caught in possession, and Fletcher's shot that Bego saved from near the left hand side of the box when S Cook was sliding in.
I think I do agree that we had better chances (although not by much) but I could be biased hence looking at neutral stats.
Topfarrier
UTC Legend
Even a Watford fan would say we had by far the better chances tbf......that chart just doesn't make any sense.You are reading the chart correctly, although the numbers are very close. Maybe the Allen probability is because it is based on an average player and not Allen.
The only other Stoke chances deemed better than 1/20 were Thompson's free kick that he put ito the side netting after Lerma had been caught in possession, and Fletcher's shot that Bego saved from near the left hand side of the box when S Cook was sliding in.
I think I do agree that we had better chances (although not by much) but I could be biased hence looking at neutral stats.
Vlad_The_Impaler
First Team
No we didn't play well but we won 1-0, they had a CL winner in their midfield.
If we were both still PL we;d be delighted. Can we play better absolutely but away form has let u down this season, drawn far too many draws and a win at Stoke is a massive win
If we were both still PL we;d be delighted. Can we play better absolutely but away form has let u down this season, drawn far too many draws and a win at Stoke is a massive win
