Non - Liz Truss

ErikthViking said:
I just received this. The sender did not send a link and I don't have access to Sky News so I cannot verify the provenance but here goes anyway.

From Sky News this morning:

Liz is 'f*****' - former minister claims letters of no confidence already being submitted against the PM
The disquiet with Conservative MPs over the mini-budget is growing.

One Tory MP who served as a minister under Boris Johnson has told Sky News: "Liz is f*****."

"She is taking on markets and the Bank of England.

"Her, Kwasi, Philp and Simon [Clarke] are playing A-level economics with people's lives. You cannot have monetary policy and fiscal policy at loggerheads. Something has to give."

The source also claimed moves to trigger a vote of no confidence in Ms Truss's leadership were already underway:

"They are already putting letters in as think she will crash the economy. The tax cuts don’t matter as all noise anyway - mainly reversing back to the status quo this year.

"The issue is government fiscal policy is opposite to Bank of England monetary policy - so they are fighting each other. What Kwasi gives, the Bank takes away."

Another Tory MP told Sky's Rob Powell that Friday's announcement had been a "s***show".

The MP said they weren’t aware of any coordinated plan to vote down government legislation or take other action to show concern, but added they would not rule out something happening given the events of the last few days.
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It's reported in several places, almost word for word identical, and it's presumably fake. I doubt you could find any MP stupid enough to put officially in writing that they want a vote of no confidence against a brand new PM, bearing in mind that they know they would probably get the sack from their constituency parties and, if not, get the sack from their electors. No Tory MP is stupid enough to think that sacking Truss will help them win the next election, and no Tory MP is stupid enough to put their name to a document trying to make it happen.

I hope!
 
I'm not so sure. The Tories are in a state of real panic. Last Thursday our new chancellor admitted that they had got it all wrong for the last 12 years and that he had come up with a plan to make it even more wrong. Something has to give.
 
dsr-burnley said:
It's reported in several places, almost word for word identical, and it's presumably fake. I doubt you could find any MP stupid enough to put officially in writing that they want a vote of no confidence against a brand new PM, bearing in mind that they know they would probably get the sack from their constituency parties and, if not, get the sack from their electors. No Tory MP is stupid enough to think that sacking Truss will help them win the next election, and no Tory MP is stupid enough to put their name to a document trying to make it happen.

I hope!
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The tory mps were fooled by brand boris for long enough to cast strong doubts about their judgement. The dna of the party mps is to gain power and look out for yourself. A vote losing leader wont last long.

There wont be many constituency parties brave enough to cause a bye election or defections to liberal or independent
 
northstandmark said:
I'm sure I don't need to explain that electricity is not gas. You can get one from the other but only gas provides gas.
Right now we're in a gas supply squeeze among other things.
I understand that long term the aim is to replace everyone's gas central heating (as one gas use example), but that's not going to help in the next 1-5 years, longer if we're realistic.

IMHO there was (is) another open goal for Starmer here in pointing out that over the last 10-15 years we've decommissioned almost all UK gas storage, on the assumption that gas would always be cheap and plentiful whilst we gradually move away from it, and that storage was too expensive to maintain. So for me rebuilding some of that has to be one part of any joined up practical strategy to get from today through to 2030 and beyond.

On a more philosophical point, and I know you're into this stuff so I'd be interested in your thoughts. I don't know if you're familiar with the work of Nate Hagans?

He's got a book out that's very provocatively entitled about the coming collapse of the current world. It's still on my to-do list, but I have heard him speak on a few platforms. He's very pessimistic about the future of energy in general. I think he's a bit over dramatic and I can't agree with being so pessimistic.

Anyway, his general gist is that we can't technologically develop our way around the fact (in his mind) that renewables can't / won't do the job of fossil fuels. Yet we must move away from fossil fuels (so I doubt he's a BP/Shell stooge), so the only answer is drastically cutting back on energy use, probably paying more for it, treating it as a luxury.

So one pillar of this argument goes that all the renewable development in the world will struggle to replace gas. A) because of it's sheer energy density and efficiency, but B) how flexible it is in usage, storage and transporting long distances. Those characteristics are going to be very difficult if not impossible to replace. And for what it's worth I think he's right there.
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Lets start at the beginning. The gas issue is not around home heating right now. Its around the electricity generation. Yes long term we need to move to more sustainable (and cheaper!) home heating methods, but right now there is almost no need to rely on so much fossil fuel for our electricity use. Its simply a lack of effort and foresight by the government.

The equation can be simplified into needing to replace fossil fuels energy source as well as its energy storage. As an energy source it can be replaced. Wind, solar and hydro has shown it can provide what is needed for a country our size (with Nuclear providing a base constant). The real issue, which you alluded to, is energy storage. The ability to flatten the demand curve on the national grid. This will come more and more in the form of home battery storage and vehicle to grid. There is room for hydrogen, although for many reasons its not the golden bullet many wish it to be.

Obviously all the above takes time but we have the skills and the means to ramp it up now. Instead of trying to put money in the economy but scrapping the 45% tax bracket they could easily have shifted that money to new energy solutions. Providing jobs, market positivity and future benefits for our energy autonomy. But that would have made too much sense!

The pathway is there. The national grid has produced many papers on it. Lets stop saying we will invest more and actually do so.

On your comments around using less, I think the one silver lining to this crisis is that we will all be forced to look at our usage and make changes. As a household I know we use too much and have already worked out ways to greatly reduce our energy consumption. We need to, our estimated bill for next year is eye watering.
 
stanthevan said:
I'm not so sure. The Tories are in a state of real panic. Last Thursday our new chancellor admitted that they had got it all wrong for the last 12 years and that he had come up with a plan to make it even more wrong. Something has to give.
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They aren't going to put on a no confidence vote on truss after just voting her in. That would be pure suicide in electoral terms. If they are unhappy they will force her to change policies. I suspect they hold their nerve though because her gamble may pay off even if it's a terrible policy. There's every chance the economy will look much healthier by the time the next election comes around due to economic cycles irrespective of these policies.
 
Druss_the_Legend said:
Lets start at the beginning. The gas issue is not around home heating right now. Its around the electricity generation. Yes long term we need to move to more sustainable (and cheaper!) home heating methods, but right now there is almost no need to rely on so much fossil fuel for our electricity use. Its simply a lack of effort and foresight by the government.

The equation can be simplified into needing to replace fossil fuels energy source as well as its energy storage. As an energy source it can be replaced. Wind, solar and hydro has shown it can provide what is needed for a country our size (with Nuclear providing a base constant). The real issue, which you alluded to, is energy storage. The ability to flatten the demand curve on the national grid. This will come more and more in the form of home battery storage and vehicle to grid. There is room for hydrogen, although for many reasons its not the golden bullet many wish it to be.

Obviously all the above takes time but we have the skills and the means to ramp it up now. Instead of trying to put money in the economy but scrapping the 45% tax bracket they could easily have shifted that money to new energy solutions. Providing jobs, market positivity and future benefits for our energy autonomy. But that would have made too much sense!

The pathway is there. The national grid has produced many papers on it. Lets stop saying we will invest more and actually do so.

On your comments around using less, I think the one silver lining to this crisis is that we will all be forced to look at our usage and make changes. As a household I know we use too much and have already worked out ways to greatly reduce our energy consumption. We need to, our estimated bill for next year is eye watering.
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Everything you say makes sense, the problem is that Governments, and especially this one, only think short term to better the odds of maintaining their authority.Is there a solution to this problem?
 
Druss_the_Legend said:
On your comments around using less, I think the one silver lining to this crisis is that we will all be forced to look at our usage and make changes. As a household I know we use too much and have already worked out ways to greatly reduce our energy consumption. We need to, our estimated bill for next year is eye watering.
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If you are serious about going green Druss, be sure to save your tears to water the garden. :)
 
JIMNNINA said:
The tory mps were fooled by brand boris for long enough to cast strong doubts about their judgement. The dna of the party mps is to gain power and look out for yourself. A vote losing leader wont last long.

There wont be many constituency parties brave enough to cause a bye election or defections to liberal or independent
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I'm suggesting they would be deselected before the next general election, not that their local party would force them out early (which they can't do anyway).

One thing pointed out in today's paper is that Labour are setting Truss up for success. They post such doom-laden predictions that she only has to beat those predictions to appear a success.
 
dsr-burnley said:
I'm suggesting they would be deselected before the next general election, not that their local party would force them out early (which they can't do anyway).

One thing pointed out in today's paper is that Labour are setting Truss up for success. They post such doom-laden predictions that she only has to beat those predictions to appear a success.
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Floating voters tend to vote with their wallet especially in a property owning democracy

Some mortgage deals have been withdrawn by banks and building societies after a fall in the pound fuelled forecasts of a sharp rise in interest rates.
Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society halted mortgage offers for new customers, but said submitted applications would still be processed.
Halifax said it would stop mortgages with product fees.

Mortgage lenders halt some deals after pound falls - BBC News
 
JIMNNINA said:
Floating voters tend to vote with their wallet especially in a property owning democracy

Some mortgage deals have been withdrawn by banks and building societies after a fall in the pound fuelled forecasts of a sharp rise in interest rates.
Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society halted mortgage offers for new customers, but said submitted applications would still be processed.
Halifax said it would stop mortgages with product fees.

Mortgage lenders halt some deals after pound falls - BBC News
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Actually voters are idiots who are fooled some of the time into voting for people all of the time. I think that's right.

This is just a pause in mortgages until the BofE clarify what they are doing with interest rates. Nobody is going to change their vote based on a temporary pause in mortgage availablity two years before the election.
 
There is widespread agreement, on the left and right, that the UK growth problem is rooted in ailing investment, something Resolution Foundation calls a “recipe for relative decline”. Private business investment was only 10 per cent of gross domestic product in 2019, behind France, Germany and the US on 13 per cent. It explains most of the productivity gulf between the UK and near neighbours. It has stagnated since 2016 and got worse: while other economic activity rebounded after the pandemic, business investment remains well below the pre-Covid peak.


Vanishingly few people really believe that tax cuts, for businesses or wealthy people, are enough to reverse this dismal trend. Nor does the government, really: behind the fiscal profligacy that prompted market panic, the Kwarteng non-Budget included broad brush promises on the types of supply-side reforms that might make a real difference: on immigration, planning, infrastructure and skills. Unlikely as it might sound, many business people like this sort of stuff even more than they like tax cuts.



UK suffering ‘drama discount’ on business investment (msn.com)
 
fritter said:
Agreed. Little point of conference. In fact they're all a waste of space. A tax payer funded jolly up. Better if they'd (all MPs) been at the commons.
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TBF I am not sure if they are paid for by the tax payer. I would have thought they were paid out of the parties own coffers. I know the union conferences I attended were paid for by the union; ultimately funded from member's subs.
Back to the point though the whole purpose of conference is for delegates to vote on policy for the next year, so surely the Labour party is no different in that respect? Conference votes for policy that the party pursues and the leader has to implement that decision not make their own decision going against what conference has voted in?
 
I see she sent congratulations to the new far right leader of Italy while telling us the she didn’t consider the leader of France to be our friend.
 
We are making a lot of changes in our house in preparation for the colder weather. Every chair now has a blanket on it, to be used instead of the heating. Some of the multi bulb lights have had a couple removed. We bought a tiny oil filled radiator from Curry's in a sale for £14 (now £30) which appears very efficient at warming the room we are using. Central Heating radiators in little used rooms are turned off. Extra clothes are already paid for so they can be piled on if we are cold. I'm feeling reasonably confident we can cope with the increases well enough.
 
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