Non - Pandemic

davygravy said:
And yet all the data shows the end of restrictions could / should happen as planned on the 21st.
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For context: Davygravy was saying all this sh*t at Christmas then he fucked off for three months as events proved him spectacularly wrong. Just like that American guy who said everything was fine then disappeared when it really wasn't.
 
I suspect this was all planned way ahead of time......end everything on June 21st they promised. The current data shows that could / should happen. Yet all of a sudden, they come up with another 'scariant' [ which we have already seen doesn't lead to hospitalisation on any large number ]. So the 21st is now in doubt. I bet what they will do, is 'allow' us a bit of leeway and keep most restrictions, so some people are all grateful they can do a bit more!

Just two extra weeks they will say. And then.....ooh the Skegness variant has cropped up....we need to be cautious....just two more weeks I really really promise!! That will carry on until we get to October / November and they lock us all down again.

This will all carry on until more of the public wake up and realise basic freedoms have been taken away and that we are basically begging for them to come back and be grateful at being allowed to hug someone!
 
davygravy said:
I suspect this was all planned way ahead of time......end everything on June 21st they promised. The current data shows that could / should happen. Yet all of a sudden, they come up with another 'scariant' [ which we have already seen doesn't lead to hospitalisation on any large number ]. So the 21st is now in doubt. I bet what they will do, is 'allow' us a bit of leeway and keep most restrictions, so some people are all grateful they can do a bit more!

Just two extra weeks they will say. And then.....ooh the Skegness variant has cropped up....we need to be cautious....just two more weeks I really really promise!! That will carry on until we get to October / November and they lock us all down again.

This will all carry on until more of the public wake up and realise basic freedoms have been taken away and that we are basically begging for them to come back and be grateful at being allowed to hug someone!
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And why would they do this, if they didn’t feel it was right?

Really, why?
 
Flu - "Why I retired in March 2020" - the biggest exclusive interview since Bashir talked to Diana in 96 as we find out why the Flu called it a day early last year and let COVID take the reigns of all things Viral, we find out his future plans and the future of humanity upon his decision.
 
adam0102 said:
Tell us, then, which figures are false and what the true numbers are
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You tell me, SAGE just do a lottery of numbers and stick with what looks realistic and tell the Gov those are the true stats, nearly half the population have had their jabs and the other half have not gone near a test kit of trace app so they clearly don't have a phucking clue what they're talking about and making it up for their own relevance/I don't what but it's not for the good of the majority of people who want to live pre 2020.
 
Vlad_The_Impaler said:
You tell me, SAGE just do a lottery of numbers and stick with what looks realistic and tell the Gov those are the true stats, nearly half the population have had their jabs and the other half have not gone near a test kit of trace app so they clearly don't have a phucking clue what they're talking about and making it up for their own relevance/I don't what but it's not for the good of the majority of people who want to live pre 2020.
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So you’re saying the figures are false, then, but you can’t back up that claim.

OK…..
 
Vlad_The_Impaler said:
You tell me, SAGE just do a lottery of numbers and stick with what looks realistic and tell the Gov those are the true stats, nearly half the population have had their jabs and the other half have not gone near a test kit of trace app so they clearly don't have a phucking clue what they're talking about and making it up for their own relevance/I don't what but it's not for the good of the majority of people who want to live pre 2020.
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No disrespect but I think it’s probably you that doesn’t have a ‘phucking clue’.
 
adam0102 said:
So you’re saying the figures are false, then, but you can’t back up that claim.

OK…..
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Of course he can’t. Singing from the same denier hymn sheet as Davy with his ‘scariant’ claim. They’ll talk about facts but have nothing to back them up.
 
DJ said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1402351593664692224

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402351601910702082

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402351616678936579

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402351624480296975

https://twitter.com/x/status/1402351627445620738
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When you look at those charts carefully they are not as scary as some may think. The key axis in comparing the autumn wave with the current one is the timeline at the bottom. As an example in his top tweet the graph on daily hospital admissions in the North West actually shows a doubling after 30 days, in the autumn wave line it had gone up 7 fold in the same time - a huge difference. Granted the level of admissions seem to have picked up in the most recent days although local Bolton area health officials have downplayed it recently. When you add in the age breakdown you then quite clearly see the impact of the vaccines and how they are working, the other thing that is not on here is the length of stay in hospital and the severity of the illness for those in hospital i.e. the numbers on ventilation.
When I look at the national data of hospital admissions and total numbers in hospital on the government website l can't really see increases in exponential growth that he claims is becoming apparent across the country. When you look at national daily admissions they are running at about 130 per day (latest data 2 June), this is compared with 4,000 per day at the back end of last year and 3,000 per day in April 2020. The daily admission numbers are little changed since a month ago, certainly no doubling or tripling etc. Certainly it doesn't show that on his twitter graph either - case numbers up 40% from a very low base in 20 days is not exponential especially if you took the North West data out of those figures I bet it would show very slow growth in the rest of England.
When you also look at the total number of people in hospital it is 957 as at 6 June, this number has barely changed during May and June, and is actually lower than 4 weeks ago (1,299).
The national situation with people on ventilation is an increase of about 20 people compared to the average in May (148 compared to about 128).
I am not rubbishing what he has shown and he clearly recognises the impact of vaccines and age differences but sometimes a red line is not as scary as it may look. Time will tell. data is all below on a daily basis.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
 
redharry said:
When you look at those charts carefully they are not as scary as some may think. The key axis in comparing the autumn wave with the current one is the timeline at the bottom. As an example in his top tweet the graph on daily hospital admissions in the North West actually shows a doubling after 30 days, in the autumn wave line it had gone up 7 fold in the same time - a huge difference. Granted the level of admissions seem to have picked up in the most recent days although local Bolton area health officials have downplayed it recently. When you add in the age breakdown you then quite clearly see the impact of the vaccines and how they are working, the other thing that is not on here is the length of stay in hospital and the severity of the illness for those in hospital i.e. the numbers on ventilation.
When I look at the national data of hospital admissions and total numbers in hospital on the government website l can't really see increases in exponential growth that he claims is becoming apparent across the country. When you look at national daily admissions they are running at about 130 per day (latest data 2 June), this is compared with 4,000 per day at the back end of last year and 3,000 per day in April 2020. The daily admission numbers are little changed since a month ago, certainly no doubling or tripling etc. Certainly it doesn't show that on his twitter graph either - case numbers up 40% from a very low base in 20 days is not exponential especially if you took the North West data out of those figures I bet it would show very slow growth in the rest of England.
When you also look at the total number of people in hospital it is 957 as at 6 June, this number has barely changed during May and June, and is actually lower than 4 weeks ago (1,299).
The national situation with people on ventilation is an increase of about 20 people compared to the average in May (148 compared to about 128).
I am not rubbishing what he has shown and he clearly recognises the impact of vaccines and age differences but sometimes a red line is not as scary as it may look. Time will tell. data is all below on a daily basis.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Click to expand...

Excellent post. You just have to try and work out of the trend will be sustained or not.

Thankfully it won’t result in anywhere near as many deaths as the first or second wave.

Is it showing a trend that hospital admissions will increase enough to be an issue in some regions? The trend is certainly suggesting that it could be possible unfortunately.
 
redharry said:
When you look at those charts carefully they are not as scary as some may think. The key axis in comparing the autumn wave with the current one is the timeline at the bottom. As an example in his top tweet the graph on daily hospital admissions in the North West actually shows a doubling after 30 days, in the autumn wave line it had gone up 7 fold in the same time - a huge difference. Granted the level of admissions seem to have picked up in the most recent days although local Bolton area health officials have downplayed it recently. When you add in the age breakdown you then quite clearly see the impact of the vaccines and how they are working, the other thing that is not on here is the length of stay in hospital and the severity of the illness for those in hospital i.e. the numbers on ventilation.
When I look at the national data of hospital admissions and total numbers in hospital on the government website l can't really see increases in exponential growth that he claims is becoming apparent across the country. When you look at national daily admissions they are running at about 130 per day (latest data 2 June), this is compared with 4,000 per day at the back end of last year and 3,000 per day in April 2020. The daily admission numbers are little changed since a month ago, certainly no doubling or tripling etc. Certainly it doesn't show that on his twitter graph either - case numbers up 40% from a very low base in 20 days is not exponential especially if you took the North West data out of those figures I bet it would show very slow growth in the rest of England.
When you also look at the total number of people in hospital it is 957 as at 6 June, this number has barely changed during May and June, and is actually lower than 4 weeks ago (1,299).
The national situation with people on ventilation is an increase of about 20 people compared to the average in May (148 compared to about 128).
I am not rubbishing what he has shown and he clearly recognises the impact of vaccines and age differences but sometimes a red line is not as scary as it may look. Time will tell. data is all below on a daily basis.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare
Click to expand...
He also doesn't mention that thanks to the vaccine, the ceiling of the maximum cases is much lower than it was in August.
 
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