Odd Three Out

[Toronto John]

I'm thinking Cherries are mathematically safe with a win on Saturday?

All of West Ham, Leeds and Leicester could not overtake us?

Just checked it again.
Assumptions:
Saints and Everton lose four games = relegated.
Cherries go 1W,3L = 42 points
Wolves can eclipse that with 2 wins.
Forest wins 4 games, probably better record than Cherries on GD.
But:
Both Leeds and Leicester would need win 4 games to get to 42 points and better GD;
In which case West Ham is down.

 

[Kicks_On_66]

AFCB cannot achieve mathematical safety on Saturday. A win puts paid to Everton (second team of three). Then any point dropped on Monday by Forest OR Leicester assures our survival. A draw on Saturday sets up some other possibilities that will require teams to drop two or three points to see us safely up.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

AFCB cannot achieve mathematical safety on Saturday. A win puts paid to Everton (second team of three). Then any point dropped on Monday by Forest OR Leicester assures our survival. A draw on Saturday sets up some other possibilities that will require teams to drop two or three points to see us safely up.

A win does it.

42 points means West Ham need to win 3 from 4 and both Leeds and Leicester would need to win all four of their fixtures. This is not possible because West Ham play Leeds and Leicester.

 

[redharry]

The more I look at it the more I think WHU will play a big role in the final placings, and could still feature in the bottom 3 themselves. Those 2 games against Leeds and Leicester could be crucial especially if WHU lose against ManU this weekend and then lose at Brentford.

 

[USCherry]

Not yet. Safety is not achieved until there are three teams that cannot possibly reach our current points total.



That's the way that I see it.



Why stop at two?



A win and a draw will do it irregardless of other results. Seven more points would be great as would twelve.

You love irregardless

 

[Toronto John]

A win does it.

42 points means West Ham need to win 3 from 4 and both Leeds and Leicester would need to win all four of their fixtures. This is not possible because West Ham play Leeds and Leicester.

Yeah, is there a term that indicates that you are "safe" based on a certainty of dropped points later in the run-in?
1) maybe that term is "safe".
2) isn't it sweet that that could apply to AFCB?

 

[SlowDownDerek]

Yeah, is there a term that indicates that you are "safe" based on a certainty of dropped points later in the run-in?
1) maybe that term is "safe".
2) isn't it sweet that that could apply to AFCB?

You can be promoted this way, as we we were in 2013 after we beat Carlisle 3-1 in the penultimate game. Well, a couple of hours later when Brentford dropped points against Hartlepool. Brentford and Donny could both theoretically still catch us individually but not both as they played each other.

In practice goal difference meant Brentford couldn't realistically catch us so the only result that could deny us the title was a Donny win. Then this happened...

 

[Toronto John]

You can be promoted this way, as we we were in 2013 after we beat Carlisle 3-1 in the penultimate game. Well, a couple of hours later when Brentford dropped points against Hartlepool. Brentford and Donny could both theoretically still catch us individually but not both as they played each other.

In practice goal difference meant Brentford couldn't realistically catch us so the only result that could deny us the title was a Donny win. Then this happened...

I looked up the highlights - was that Michael Oliver giving the penalty?

That sure was wild stuff.

 

[afcdibby]

The Boscombe are safe - End of .

Can't see how we can chant that.

 

[New Old Cherry]

Can't see how we can chant that.

Fans have already been chanting " We are staying up " !

Plus anyone is free to chant wtf they like !

 

[ErikthViking]

Fans have already been chanting " We are staying up " !

Plus anyone is free to chant wtf they like !

That isn't racist, homophobic...etc.

 

[redharry]

You can be promoted this way, as we we were in 2013 after we beat Carlisle 3-1 in the penultimate game. Well, a couple of hours later when Brentford dropped points against Hartlepool. Brentford and Donny could both theoretically still catch us individually but not both as they played each other.

In practice goal difference meant Brentford couldn't realistically catch us so the only result that could deny us the title was a Donny win. Then this happened...

Remember being on the pitch at Tranmere celebrating being champions and just waiting for Brentford to score the penalty.................................................

 

[AFCB_Liam]

Can't see how we can chant that.

To the tune of BOTN.

"Boscombe are safe. END OF"

 

[zigger zaggar]

Yesterday I put a couple of quid on Chealski to go down @150, it's still possible that they could be one of the three. Starting with us beating them on Saturday.

 

[zigger zaggar]

Having looked at it even Palarce could go down theoretically. I think.

 

[ErikthViking]

AFCB cannot achieve mathematical safety on Saturday. A win puts paid to Everton (second team of three). Then any point dropped on Monday by Forest OR Leicester assures our survival. A draw on Saturday sets up some other possibilities that will require teams to drop two or three points to see us safely up.

In the cold light of day, someone may like to test this for trueicity.

If, on Saturday, we win (possible) and Leeds lose at Man City (likely) it would give us 42 points in the bag.

The max points for each of the following are:
Southampton: 36
Everton: 41
Leeds: 39

There being three teams who cannot achieve our points total, we are safe at 5pm on Saturday.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

In the cold light of day, someone may like to test this for trueicity.

If, on Saturday, we win (possible) and Leeds lose at Man City (likely) it would give us 42 points in the bag.

The max points for each of the following are:
Southampton: 36
Everton: 41
Leeds: 39

There being three teams who cannot achieve our points total, we are safe at 5pm on Saturday.

It's correct but as stated above, even if Leeds beat Man City a win puts us out of reach of Southampton, Everton and one of Leeds, Leicester and West Ham. A win means guaranteed safety no matter what.

 

[afcdibby]

To the tune of BOTN.

"Boscombe are safe. END OF"

Rolls of the tongue.

 

[Kicks_On_66]

In the cold light of day, someone may like to test this for trueicity.

If, on Saturday, we win (possible) and Leeds lose at Man City (likely) it would give us 42 points in the bag.

The max points for each of the following are:
Southampton: 36
Everton: 41
Leeds: 39

There being three teams who cannot achieve our points total, we are safe at 5pm on Saturday.

Correct. SDD pointed out that I didn't account for dependence between three of the teams of interest. I will do that on the Magic Numbers today, I think. One of them is guaranteed to drop at least two points between now and the end, so I will provisionally reduce their Magic Numbers against us accordingly.

 

[Druss_the_Legend]

You can be promoted this way, as we we were in 2013 after we beat Carlisle 3-1 in the penultimate game. Well, a couple of hours later when Brentford dropped points against Hartlepool. Brentford and Donny could both theoretically still catch us individually but not both as they played each other.

In practice goal difference meant Brentford couldn't realistically catch us so the only result that could deny us the title was a Donny win. Then this happened...

Is that the game where the player who was off the pitch came on at the half way line and received the ball without being waved on by the ref?