Thanks.
Size of losses is astronomical - don’t think covid was sufficient excuse to run up such a deficit so interested why you think they will escape?
First up you have to remember that infrastructure costs don't count toward FFP calculations and so, with the new stadium going up, there are huge amounts of those losses that will simply be excluded.
What's left might still be enough for them to fail. However, it won't be some massive blow the target away fail.
Then there is all the messing with figures around Covid. A lot of teams did some very creative accounting with their FFP numbers then so the panel have to be careful they don't accidentally snare a whole bunch of other clubs with the ruling as that could then get very messy.
Meanwhile, there's the fact if they find them guilty several clubs have indicated an intention to take Everton (and the FA?) to court. Leeds, Leicester, Southampton (what case that lot have I've no clue since they finished rock bottom. Sounds like where there's blame there's claim nonsense to me) and Burnley I think. So they're going to want to be very, very, very sure of themselves before punishing Everton as it's going to drag English football to the courts and through the mud if they do.
Let's say they do find them guilty though, there hasn't yet been a points deduction for a FFP breach in England (afaik, could be wrong there). Fines and transfer embargos yes. So they'd have to consider it a pretty egregious case to go straight to a points deduction.
Now add that I think this case revolves around a single charge whilst, in the background, you have Man City facing over 100 charges. If they issue a points deduction for this one then they face having to give Man City a points deduction in the hundreds of points. How do you think that's going to go with Man City's track record of taking UEFA to court with megamillions lawyers and winning?
So, I think they'll be looking to find them innocent if they can or, if they find them guilty, then it'll be for as small a breach as they can swing it. That way the worst punishment they'll hand out will be a fine and maybe a ban on new signings for a window or two.
This is potentially the first domino in an utter mess for English football so they'll want to avoid knocking it over if they can. Whether that's right or wrong is another matter.
Now I've said all that, I bet they'll get a 10 point deduction. Cos, when it comes down to it, who really knows...