Stats 23/24

The average positions are below. Smith (15) was much more advanced than Kerkez (3) whilst Kluivert (19) was further forward than Solanke (9). Tavenier (16) and Semenyo (24) were more central and closer to Solanke than in previous games. The first sub was enforced with an injury to Tavernier and with Ouattara (11) replacing him on the right side. On 73 minutes Philip (29) replaced Kluivert, but played much deeper and Unal (26) replaced Semenyo with Solanke playing more on the left. With 4 minutes to go, and the game level Senesi (25) replaced Kerkez (3) with Kelly (5) presumably shifting to left back and Scott (14) replaced Cook (4).

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Christie had most touches in total (70) slightly ahead of Kelly (68). Christie had the highest number of touches in the opposition half (28) and was joint level with Tavernier in the final third with 17.

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AFCB had 23 touches in the opposition’s penalty area. Kluivert had the most (6) despite coming off with over 20 minutes to play.

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Kelly attempted most passes with 52. Christie attempted most in the opposition’s half 14 whilst Tavernier had most in the final third with 11. We averaged 68% completion. No starting player was above 80% completion, Solanke being highest at 78%

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AFCB created 7 chances (1 big). Solanke set up 2 of the chances. Luton created 15 chances one big.

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We had 8 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target once. Tavernier and Kluivert had 3 attempts each Luton had 19 attempts, 1 big, and hit the target 9 times.

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Kelly made most defensive actions with 18. Cook, Smith and Solanke all made 2 interceptions. Neto made most recoveries (11). Kelly made most clearances (7) and Smith made most blocks (2).

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According to Opta, AFCB made one errors leading to a chance (from Zabarnyi).

The foul count was AFCB 14, Luton 6. Smith made most fouls (4). Six Bournemouth players were fouled once each.

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Not a match stat, but thought it was the best place to post this.

I find it interesting to look at where we have picked up our points this season in relation to league position.

Against the eight teams currently below us our record is:

P15, W9, D3, L3, Pts 30

Against the eleven teams currently above us it is:

P16, W2, D5, L9, Pts 11


So solid results against the "lesser" teams which, assuming maintained again next season, should ensure no relegation battle. However, clearly need a better return against the "better" teams if a European challenge is to be realistic.

Of course, an excellent end to this season could still do that but would probably mean having to win at least 6 of the last 7 games, and that may still not be enough after Saturday's loss.
 
Here is the xG from the Man U game, which doesn’t tell all the story in relation to the penalties given and not given. AFCB had attacking attempt and were 1-0 inside the first 15 minutes with Solanke driving past Onana (rated 1 in 9). Shortly after Rashford had a chance that was hit poorly into the side netting (1 in 5). Bournemouth were creating little chances, but Man Utd equalised where fortunate breaks of the ball ended up with Fernandes slamming home from close range (1 in 6). Bournemouth retook the lead shortly after with Kluivert’s finish which beat Onana at his near post (1 in 35). AFCB created 3 more large chances before the break, the first two were in the same incident with Kerkez heading down but the ball bouncing up to hit the bar (1 in 4) and from rebound the ball was slightly too high to control (1 in 3) and a chance from Kluivert (1 in 6). At the break the xG was AFCB 1.27, Man Utd 0.38. In the second half Bournemouth remained dominant, with Man Utd creating little until they were ‘gifted’ a penalty. The ball deflected up to Smith’s arm, and Fernandes equalised from the spot (4 in 5). Man Utd only had 1 more shot after this and whilst we had five, this were minor chances. The best was a 1 in 10 free kick, but not the 0.8 xg that the penalty the referee gave on field. This was overturned on VAR with ongoing debate about this call. The final xG was AFCB 1.64, Man Utd 1.26; the xGs produced by Understat were more in our favour being AFCB 2.39, Man U 1.52. If the penalty calls had been reversed the gap would have increased by 1.5.

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The average positions show that we targeted the Man Utd right hand side. Smith (15), Zabarnyi (27) and Senesi (25) had standard positions for a high-pressing team, yet Kerkez’s (3) average position was as high as Solanke (9). Kelly (5) came on for the injured Sinisterra (19) and played as high as Kerkez, with Cook (4) and Christie (10) sitting deeper. On 70 minutes, at 202, Ouattara (11) and Smith were replaced with Faivre (8) and Aarons (37). This was a straight change at right back, but Faivre pushed higher and more central than Ouattara. In the 76th minute Unal (26) replaced the injured Kluivert with Solanke dropping a little deeper.

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Cook had most touches with 63 with Christie second with 61. Christie had most touches in the opposition half (40) whilst Solanke had most in the final third with 26.

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We had 32 touches in the opposition’s penalty area (a season high) with Kerkez having 7 and Solanke 6.

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Cook attempted 49 passes, with the centre backs, Senesi (45) and Zabarnyi (43). Cook had most in the opposition half, and was joint second in the final third (along with Ouattara) with 11, with Solanke leading with 13. AFCB averaged 75% completion. From the starting eleven Christie and Kerkez had values 85% and over. Neto only achieved 43%, again indicating that he is playing it longer.

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AFCB attempted 25 crosses being successful with 6. Smith was successful with 2 out of 2.

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Our players tried to take on a man 18 times being successful 9 times. Solanke was joint top with 2 successful attempts from 2 attempts.

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We created 17 chances (2 big). Man U created 5 chances with none big.

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We had 20 attempts (3 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 5 times. Man U had 8 attempts, 2 big, and hit the target twice.

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AFCB won 12 of 28 aerials duals. Ouatarra won 3 from 5 and Christie and Kelly both won 2 from 2.

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AFCB won 19 out of 24 tackles. Zabarnyi won 4 from 4, Smith won 3 form 3 and Senesi won 3 from 3.

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Senesi made most defensive actions with 14. He made most interceptions (3), Christie made most recoveries (9), Zabarnyi made most clearances (4) whilst Christie and Kerkez made the most blocks.




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According to Opta, AFCB made no errors leading to a shot.

The foul count was AFCB 13, Man U 14, the first time in a while we hadn’t made most files. Kluivert and Senesi made 3 fouls each whilst six Bournemouth players were fouled twice.

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The Opta expected goals had Kerkez as most likely to score for AFCB (0.63) with both Kluivert (0.37) and Solanke (0.28) being above 0.25. For assists, Christie was highest with 0.20, and with Smith (0.13), Kluivert (0.11) and Solanke (0.1) being 10% or more.

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The point from Saturday leaves us about 7 to the good against this 40-point pace:
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This match brings a delayed end to Block 5. As I predicted at the beginning of the season, it proved fruitful, even though we left some points on the table. I think we will end on between 47 and 51 points. The latest Opta season simulation places us no lower than 15th, with about a 15% chance of finishing in the top half. Top 6 looks out of reach.
 
Saturday's xG and xGA figures represent on-form performance on both sides of the ball:
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I guess that's partly down to the difference between playing a desperate, scrappy Luton and a desultory Manchester United.
 
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