Thoughts v QPR

SlowDownDerek said:
It's always funny to see people say how bad xG is at calculating the likelihood of a good chance being converted. The guy literally missed it.
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Yes, it just strengthens tge case in not taking xg seriously if anything.

I'd put it at 75% if had to estimate.
 
MB1980 said:
Yes, it just strengthens tge case in not taking xg seriously if anything.

I'd put it at 75% if had to estimate.
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No it doesn't. XG says that chance gets missed just under 50% of the time. Real life says it gets missed 100% of the time. You put it at 75% but xG look at the facts, not "I reckon..."
 
SlowDownDerek said:
No it doesn't. XG says that chance gets missed just under 50% of the time. Real life says it gets missed 100% of the time. You put it at 75% but xG look at the facts, not "I reckon..."
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I know where you're coming from as very few scenarios are identical in football, but 'if' that chance was to happen 100, a thousand times are you saying that it would never end up in the net?
 
MB1980 said:
I know where you're coming from as very few scenarios are identical in football, but 'if' that chance was to happen 100, a thousand times are you saying that it would never end up in the net?
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I would be just having a reckon like you are. XG says it would end up in the net 54 times out of 100. You say 75. I have no reason to doubt what xG say as they are the ones with a big database and analysis of similar chances. It's definitely true that people overestimate the likelihood of chance conversion.
 
Really needed that great performance yesterday, went up on the coach for a change. Lerma and Solanke superb, Stanislas showed the class we all know he's got and a word for Mepham and Stacey, despite the fact I've criticised them in the past, who were both brilliant today, confidence should be sky high now!
 
SlowDownDerek said:
I would be just having a reckon like you are. XG says it would end up in the net 54 times out of 100. You say 75. I have no reason to doubt what xG say as they are the ones with a big database and analysis of similar chances. It's definitely true that people overestimate the likelihood of chance conversion.
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Im going to do a uturn and agree 50/50 is probably more accurate on reflection.

That sits better with me actually as looked a howler in live play, but due to way went through players, bounced etc, not such a sure thing.

Bit like when a keeper looks an idiot when ball subtly bounces unpredictably off broken turf just before they kick it and makes them look like a complete clown, although same would have happened to most keepers in same situation. But in live play, or 1 replay in highlights everyone is having a laugh at their expense, but when you see in slow more or from other angles can change your perspective on the incident.
 
MB1980 said:
Im going to do a uturn and agree 50/50 is probably more accurate on reflection.

That sits better with me actually as looked a howler in live play, but due to way went through players, bounced etc, not such a sure thing.

Bit like when a keeper looks an idiot when ball subtly bounces unpredictably off broken turf just before they kick it and makes them look like a complete clown, although same would have happened to most keepers in same situation. But in live play, or 1 replay in highlights everyone is having a laugh at their expense, but when you see in slow more or from other angles can change your perspective on the incident.
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I think it's obviously got it's faults, you wonder whether they factor in the level and quality of players. Things like deflections and players closing down a striker must be difficult to factor in.
 
Warburton post match interview all about the referee rather than the unprofessional conduct of his players.

6 points from qpr is excellent they should win more than they lose for the rest of the season
 
JIMNNINA said:
Warburton post match interview all about the referee rather than the unprofessional conduct of his players.

6 points from qpr is excellent they should win more than they lose for the rest of the season
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How was he unprofessional? Can't recall many dubious decisions in our favour?

I can recall their player blatantly pushing cahill into the hoardings out of frustration and not getting a booking. Lino had clear view of it too.

Thought ref did OK, bearing in mind qprs players/fans/staff constant protests for tenuous stuff to be given in their favour.

Maybe he should worry more about their own inability to seriously threaten us during the game.
 
Three thoughts:

1). Lerma was absolutely outstanding. But his medium / long range distribution is (imho) less good than Cook or Kilkenny. A couple of times he overhit balls out to the wings that I’d expect others to nail. Lerma playing in that “pivot” role therefore gives us a defensive edge but it arguably constrains the “Parker system” in an attacking sense. So in some games, we may want to switch it up.

2). There was a visible lift in energy levels when Pearson came on: chasing down every ball and snapping into tackles. Ditto (but to a slightly lesser extent) when Anthony and Lowe came on. Credit to Parker for well timed substitutions.

3). Why did Stacey jump for the ball in the penalty area and wave his hand at it? I tried watching it back on replays to see if it was something to do with using his arms as leverage to jump (ie he just got caught under the ball; or if the QPR player grabbed his arm or something). It’s a no in each case, so (serious question): what was he doing / thinking? Was it a desperate attempt to put off the QPR player (without hitting the ball), knowing that he was beaten to the ball? Or did he mean to get the ball but missed it (thankfully?). Whatever he meant, surely it can’t be a good idea, ever? Even if their player connects with the ball, there’s still every chance it’ll miss or be saved. But if that ball hits Stacey’s arm, it’s a stonewall penalty. The whole thing baffles me as it’s such an unnatural thing for a defender to have done. Stacey had a decent game but that nearly undid all the good work.
 
Standent said:
Three thoughts:

1). Lerma was absolutely outstanding. But his medium / long range distribution is (imho) less good than Cook or Kilkenny. A couple of times he overhit balls out to the wings that I’d expect others to nail. Lerma playing in that “pivot” role therefore gives us a defensive edge but it arguably constrains the “Parker system” in an attacking sense. So in some games, we may want to switch it up.

2). There was a visible lift in energy levels when Pearson came on: chasing down every ball and snapping into tackles. Ditto (but to a slightly lesser extent) when Anthony and Lowe came on. Credit to Parker for well timed substitutions.

3). Why did Stacey jump for the ball in the penalty area and wave his hand at it? I tried watching it back on replays to see if it was something to do with using his arms as leverage to jump (ie he just got caught under the ball; or if the QPR player grabbed his arm or something). It’s a no in each case, so (serious question): what was he doing / thinking? Was it a desperate attempt to put off the QPR player (without hitting the ball), knowing that he was beaten to the ball? Or did he mean to get the ball but missed it (thankfully?). Whatever he meant, surely it can’t be a good idea, ever? Even if their player connects with the ball, there’s still every chance it’ll miss or be saved. But if that ball hits Stacey’s arm, it’s a stonewall penalty. The whole thing baffles me as it’s such an unnatural thing for a defender to have done. Stacey had a decent game but that nearly undid all the good work.
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Good post, but I think Lerma has to be one of 1st names down for everything does bring to the table, despite short comings. I think his experience at highest levels means he can handle pressure games too.

Yes, wasn't happy with the Stacey situation. Can't afford to do stuff like that. Nearly hit his hand and could have cost us dearly. Nailed on pen if ball flight was few centres to side. Fairly innocuous position too, so would have been really pissed off.Hasn't he given away other silly pens?

Pearson Is a weird one. Seems a great asset to have at our disposal, but wasn't on bench last week. Maybe odd ongoing fitness concerns that seems to have hampered him since joining?
 
SlowDownDerek said:
I would be just having a reckon like you are. XG says it would end up in the net 54 times out of 100. You say 75. I have no reason to doubt what xG say as they are the ones with a big database and analysis of similar chances. It's definitely true that people overestimate the likelihood of chance conversion.
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It may well (or may not) be that hitting that cross first time might end up in the net 54 times out of 100, particularly in pub games LOL!

However (and as another poster has suggested) Anthony appeared to have plenty of time to control that cross and then roll it in, so does XG (or whatever it is) take that into account as well?
 
MB1980 said:
Good post, but I think Lerma has to be one of 1st names down for everything does bring to the table, despite short comings. I think his experience at highest levels means he can handle pressure games too.

Yes, wasn't happy with the Stacey situation. Can't afford to do stuff like that. Nearly hit his hand and could have cost us dearly. Nailed on pen if ball flight was few centres to side. Fairly innocuous position too, so would have been really pissed off.Hasn't he given away other silly pens?

Pearson Is a weird one. Seems a great asset to have at our disposal, but wasn't on bench last week. Maybe odd ongoing fitness concerns that seems to have hampered him since joining?
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Have heard( and it could be complete bullsh#t ) that Pearson is struggling to settle down here. Such a Northern boy.
 
Good help us if Dom gets injured or suspended between now and the end of the season, there is nobody on our books that could fulfil that role.
 
MB1980 said:
Good post, but I think Lerma has to be one of 1st names down for everything does bring to the table, despite short comings. I think his experience at highest levels means he can handle pressure games too.

Yes, wasn't happy with the Stacey situation. Can't afford to do stuff like that. Nearly hit his hand and could have cost us dearly. Nailed on pen if ball flight was few centres to side. Fairly innocuous position too, so would have been really pissed off.Hasn't he given away other silly pens?

Pearson Is a weird one. Seems a great asset to have at our disposal, but wasn't on bench last week. Maybe odd ongoing fitness concerns that seems to have hampered him since joining?
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Agreed - Lerma always first name on the team sheet for me. My only query is whether he should always be first choice for the single pivot / deeper role. I suspect there might be games where Kilkenny (or L.Cook) are better suited because the greater need (for that game) is ball-retention and range of passing rather than all the brilliant things Lerma does so well (eg defending, ball winning, tracking, covering, heading, general 5h1t-housing… ). But in a fluid system, perhaps he can just interchange with L.Cook.
 
DJ said:
Terrible miss from Anthony. One that you’d expect to see on a bloopers show.

Incredible young talent at times and yet in some single moments he plays like he’s got numb feet.
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Misses from a number of players. We can all watch the videos and think why did he do that or why didn't he do that. The important thing is when the players watch themselves do they learn and keep it in their heads?
There was a number of incidents in the game. Solanki heading with the top of his head instead of his forehead. One on one with keeper shooting instead of lifting the ball over the keeper who was well of his line. Lowe taking two touches instead of one before shooting, Anthony should he have stopped it and then shot?
None of these thoughts are in anyway criticisms. I was delighted with the overall performance., but there has been so many open chance misses in recent games that has cost us points. What a great free kick from Junior, he obviously practices those regularly. This team has quality but as Scott say's we can get better.
 
Waz afcb said:
According to Kris Temple it was agreed that Cook would not play as there is a move in the pipeline. I actually think you’re being very harsh on Mepham today, he gave away one very silly foul in the first half but other than that I don’t think he did a lot wrong. I seriously doubt that he’s good enough to play consistently but today I don’t think you can really fault him.
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I think Meps has great potential and although he has the odd lapse , perhaps more, he’ll grow in confidence if the team pushes on to hold auto promotion.
 
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