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Deleted member 754
Guest
was bound to forget someone. JW is the new HR!
AFC Bournemouth v Swansea City
- Thread starter billythekid
- Start date
was bound to forget someone. JW is the new HR!
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Hi all,
See below for the xG timeline - this is so much more satisfying to put together after a resounding win.
Not much to add apart from fingers crossed we play like this for the rest of the season.
See below for the xG timeline - this is so much more satisfying to put together after a resounding win.
Not much to add apart from fingers crossed we play like this for the rest of the season.
adam0102
Fans' Favourite
Quite surprised that PhilBill's goal is given a 0.6? Seems unlikely a goal would be scored 60% of the time or don't I understand these stats?
DJ
Moderator
Man of the match poll - https://bournemouth.vitalfootball.co.uk/afcb-v-swansea-highlights-reaction/
DJ
Moderator
I most definitely do not understand the xG stats and that's not Matt's efforts, its an interesting angle to glance at and perhaps overall it gives an impression on who "won the game on points" if it was Boxing. But can you really drill it down too far?
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Yes, I was surprised by this as well, (although it was actually 0.54). I doubt whoever does these has a system complex enough to take into account the position of the man. I think it simply looks at where the shot was taken from regardless of whether the person was facing goal or facing away from goal. There appear to be different estimations too (Sky flashed up an xG at the end of the match and we were 1.99). More complex ones will take into account defensive positions too.
The ones I use are from infogol, which has an explanation here: What is Expected Goals (xG)? An Introduction | Education | Infogol but I've copied a brief summary.
"Simplistically, a shot is more likely to be scored than a header from the same position on the field and indeed shot location and shot type are the two major contributing factors when projecting how likely it is that a goal is scored from any chance."
The method has limitations, as with a Long header (against Forest) where he was clearly under the ball, but the xG (0.53) appeared to be if he was taller and had a better chance.
We only had three chances that were rated better than 1 in 4: Billing's goal (0.54), Danjuma's goal (0.40) and CCV's header (0.29). Own goal 'attempts' aren't recorded. Swansea had one chance rated 1 in 10 or better (Whittaker's shot (0.1) that Bego saved and CCV put behind for a corner)
I like the xGs but the values certainly shouldn't be taken as definitive. DJ's Boxing analogy is a good one, We probably see a lot of this by eye, but I suspect we are all be biased at times. There had been a pattern developing over how little xG we had been creating in the second half of the last three games but thankfully that didn't happen yesterday.
So, all these stats should be taken with a pinch (or two) of salt, but hopefully of interest.
rednblackexile
First Team
Give Woodgate and his backroom team some credit for last night - whatever they did/said got the team suitably fired up. What JW may lack in acumen he makes up for in passion, and finally it seems some of that has rubbed off on the players. Now the challenge is to replicate that performance every week. Can't decide if the Cup is a good or bad distraction. We could feasibly have 3 trips to Wembley in the space of 6 weeks, but if I had to settle for one I would take the play-offs final.
wingsnwheels
Star Player
I went to sleep a very happy man. For the first time in ages we completely dominated the opposition. Well played lads. Hope Stan is not seriously injured.
SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
Last night was a great result and very enjoyable, even if we don't go on to improve our consistency. Not giving away stupid chances with half-arsed defending was certainly very welcome.
I do think some of the praise is overblown though. We had countless promising attacks and consistently made poor decisions or messed up simple passes. This is an issue that has plagued our season. I think he got the formation right but it wasn't like it was our patterns of play that got the goals despite the promising opportunities we had - shite defending ours would have been proud of was behind the first two.
We keep hearing about how good these players are technically and its as if I'm watching different players.
I do think some of the praise is overblown though. We had countless promising attacks and consistently made poor decisions or messed up simple passes. This is an issue that has plagued our season. I think he got the formation right but it wasn't like it was our patterns of play that got the goals despite the promising opportunities we had - shite defending ours would have been proud of was behind the first two.
We keep hearing about how good these players are technically and its as if I'm watching different players.
billythekid
UTC Legend
Hamstring injury.
Last night was a bit like the team we watched in the first half against Barnsley, only this time they came back out for the second half and carried on from where they left off in the first half.
Very competent performance, had a feeling we would win last night after watching Swansea at Luton.
punkrockcherry
Star Player
billythekid
UTC Legend
I voted for him but not sure if it worked as it still said 0.
He had a good game last night apart from his goal and assist.
Johnny Comelately
Star Player
God Almighty! A bit of warning first please, that's horrific!
NWCherries98
Fans' Favourite
I don’t really disagree tbh, as much as I’d like to. However, the team we did beat are 3rd, and we swept them aside with what I felt was more gears in the locker.
It’s like I’ve been saying all season; if we can just play “fine”, we’d win most of our games. But we’ve consistently been fucking atrocious. We just beat one of the “top sides” in this league purely by the virtue of not shooting ourselves in the foot for 45 minutes. It could’ve been 5 or 6 as far as I’m concerned, and it should’ve been 4 or 5 against Barnsley.
SlowDownDerek
UTC Legend
I think is spot on, perhaps criticising them after a comfortable 3-0 win against a top side is harsh but I still found it quite a frustrating performance.
One thing that was much better, as you say, was that we didn't give away soft goals (like Swansea did).
I think that front six need to be better. They all played their part don't get me wrong but could you say any of them were better than 6/10.
Wilshere I thought was the pick of the bunch and showed why he should be playing as much as possible. Credit to Woodgate for playing him deeper with Billing advanced too.
Danjuma is immensely frustrating because if he learned to move the ball quicker and play simple passes he'd be a much better player. You can forgive people if they are consistently getting goals and assists as he has done but the number of promising attacks that end with him stopping and allowing defenders to set themselves is too many.
Stan - too wasteful
Billing - immense potential but guilty of half-arsed passing and tracking half the time.
Lerma - very poor passing.
Solanke - we are so much more dangerous with him in the side and he works very hard but he should be aiming higher in his performances. Needs to get on the end of more chances, create more chances and ultimately score more goals. Also needs to improve in the air.
These six players should be unstoppable yet they aren't. Sure some of it is down to successive managers but there's too much slackness about them. Get it right and they'll comfortably beat anyone.
ErikthViking
UTC Legend
I am not wrong though. I’m just saying it how it is. Watch us fail to turn up in the coming weeks. This team has the ability to put in very good performances, but lacks the mentality to do it on an anywhere near consistent basis.
DJ
Moderator
Agree to a point, I’ve been saying similar for 18 months, 3 managers etc etc.
But you only have to turn that corner once...who knows...something could click and last long enough to ride some confidence into the play-offs.
