Eddie Howe - AFCB - Newcastle United

I have to say, that as much as I love Eddie and am glad he’s doing well, I’m starting to find this media love in with him a bit annoying.
 
Kudos said:
From relegation position last season to top 4 this season with City as strong as ever, Arsenal on fire, Man United on a surge. It does depend on Spurs, Chelsea, or Liverpool to actually find form to make the 4th spot a real challenge but I'd expect one of them to do it.

This is with a team where a 32-year-old Trippier is probably the best player. A far cry from the likes of Kante, Mahrez, and even (at the time) Maguire and Vardy.
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Crazy crazy opinion.

Leicester were nailed on to get relegated with ten games to go the previous season, they produced the most unlikely escape and then won the league the following season.

Mahrez was signed for £500k from the French second division, Vardy a £1m signing from Fleetwood who had been very hit and miss the previous season. Leicester signed them as unproven and unknown quantities and developed them into the players they were.

The entire Leicester team that season cost less than half of what Newcastle payed for their centre forward!!

To say that Newcastle finishing in the top four even comes remotely close to Leicesters achievement is absurd.
 
northstandmark said:
Shearer can't get enough of Eddie these days, just slightly changed his tune.
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Well a number of pundits used to say they were surprised a ‘bigger’ club didn’t come in for him when he ws with us and doing well.

Eventually he joined a club up in the North East and the pundits got their wish.

Next given time they will want him for the England job.
 
KingKieffer said:
I have to say, that as much as I love Eddie and am glad he’s doing well, I’m starting to find this media love in with him a bit annoying.
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I agree. It would appear that Newcastle's owners have really fallen on their feet by stumbling across a manger that fits perfectly with their sportswashing plans.

EDIT to say that I loved Eddie at Bournemouth - just pointing out how 'successful' the operation has been so far for the owners.
 
it was weird, i saw that initially and thought, why is ex-liverpool fb Steve Nicol in the Man U dugout.
 
KingKieffer said:
Crazy crazy opinion.

Leicester were nailed on to get relegated with ten games to go the previous season, they produced the most unlikely escape and then won the league the following season.

Mahrez was signed for £500k from the French second division, Vardy a £1m signing from Fleetwood who had been very hit and miss the previous season. Leicester signed them as unproven and unknown quantities and developed them into the players they were.

The entire Leicester team that season cost less than half of what Newcastle payed for their centre forward!!

To say that Newcastle finishing in the top four even comes remotely close to Leicesters achievement is absurd.
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I'm hard pressed to think of someone less qualified to judge an opinion but thanks for chipping in. Having your seal of disapproval is the best validation I've had :)
 
Kudos said:
I'm hard pressed to think of someone less qualified to judge an opinion but thanks for chipping in. Having your seal of disapproval is the best validation I've had :)
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Tbf it is a crazy opinion. Leicester winning the league after nearly getting relegated the previous season is so far ahead of Howe getting one of the world's richest clubs into the top four.

One is about a thousand times more likely than the other. Arsenal winning the title this season was 66/1 compared with Newcastle top four at 9/1.
 
SlowDownDerek said:
Tbf it is a crazy opinion. Leicester winning the league after nearly getting relegated the previous season is so far ahead of Howe getting one of the world's richest clubs into the top four.

One is about a thousand times more likely than the other. Arsenal winning the title this season was 66/1 compared with Newcastle top four at 9/1.
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The betting market isn't always a reliable metric. It's good game to game or within a season but not so much when comparing seasons coming up to a decade apart.

Bigger clubs will have odds weighted against them because of the amounts staked in them and bottom ranked teams routinely got huge odds because it wasn't worth the effort of actually doing the maths for a market of a few hundred people - I think I read only 47 fans took the 5000/1 odds for Leicester for example. They just slash the base odds now and I expect still find the same few hundred putting in the same stakes.

We were 1000/1 and Southampton were 750/1 at the start of the season.
Even now Southampton are 1000/1 for a top 4 finish which might not even be mathematically possible. Nobody can say in hindsight that Leicester were 7 times less likely to mount a title challenge then Southampton or indeed 5 times less likely than Southampton making the top 4 from their position today.

You're also comparing different starting points because Ranieri was appointed at the start of the season. By the start of this season Eddie had turned a team on 0.45 PPG to one 1.63 PPG more than three times better so naturally at the start of the season odds will be based on that.

I know it's unpopular to suggest the Leicester season was anything other than pure genius from Ranieri - despite him never performing to the same level before or after.

I also know it's unpopular to say Newcastle aren't buying the league and actually in a season with Pep's Man City, Arsenal massively over performing, Chelsea spending half a billion on players to be sat in 11th, etc breaking into the top 4 this season is a huge achievement.

Combine these and it's a guarantee that I'm going to get some stick :shrug:
 
Kudos said:
The betting market isn't always a reliable metric. It's good game to game or within a season but not so much when comparing seasons coming up to a decade apart.

Bigger clubs will have odds weighted against them because of the amounts staked in them and bottom ranked teams routinely got huge odds because it wasn't worth the effort of actually doing the maths for a market of a few hundred people - I think I read only 47 fans took the 5000/1 odds for Leicester for example. They just slash the base odds now and I expect still find the same few hundred putting in the same stakes.

We were 1000/1 and Southampton were 750/1 at the start of the season.
Even now Southampton are 1000/1 for a top 4 finish which might not even be mathematically possible. Nobody can say in hindsight that Leicester were 7 times less likely to mount a title challenge then Southampton or indeed 5 times less likely than Southampton making the top 4 from their position today.

You're also comparing different starting points because Ranieri was appointed at the start of the season. By the start of this season Eddie had turned a team on 0.45 PPG to one 1.63 PPG more than three times better so naturally at the start of the season odds will be based on that.

I know it's unpopular to suggest the Leicester season was anything other than pure genius from Ranieri - despite him never performing to the same level before or after.

I also know it's unpopular to say Newcastle aren't buying the league and actually in a season with Pep's Man City, Arsenal massively over performing, Chelsea spending half a billion on players to be sat in 11th, etc breaking into the top 4 this season is a huge achievement.

Combine these and it's a guarantee that I'm going to get some stick :shrug:
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Yes but you're not even comparing Leicester's win with Newcastle winning the league, just them finishing fourth or better.

As I say according to the bookies Newcastle finishing fourth is significantly more likely than Arsenal winning the league this season. Same starting point, same big club bias in terms of fans lumping on and shifting the odds. In fact Arsenal have significantly more supporters than Newcastle so you could say 66/1 is skewed downwards by your logic.

Only 47 fans bet at 5,000/1 because it was so unlikely. You're right, they did cap odds on longshots winning the league after that to one or two thousand to one but even those significantly altered odds tell you how much more unlikely it would be than a rich side finishing fourth.
 
Kudos said:
The betting market isn't always a reliable metric. It's good game to game or within a season but not so much when comparing seasons coming up to a decade apart.

Bigger clubs will have odds weighted against them because of the amounts staked in them and bottom ranked teams routinely got huge odds because it wasn't worth the effort of actually doing the maths for a market of a few hundred people - I think I read only 47 fans took the 5000/1 odds for Leicester for example. They just slash the base odds now and I expect still find the same few hundred putting in the same stakes.

We were 1000/1 and Southampton were 750/1 at the start of the season.
Even now Southampton are 1000/1 for a top 4 finish which might not even be mathematically possible. Nobody can say in hindsight that Leicester were 7 times less likely to mount a title challenge then Southampton or indeed 5 times less likely than Southampton making the top 4 from their position today.

You're also comparing different starting points because Ranieri was appointed at the start of the season. By the start of this season Eddie had turned a team on 0.45 PPG to one 1.63 PPG more than three times better so naturally at the start of the season odds will be based on that.

I know it's unpopular to suggest the Leicester season was anything other than pure genius from Ranieri - despite him never performing to the same level before or after.

I also know it's unpopular to say Newcastle aren't buying the league and actually in a season with Pep's Man City, Arsenal massively over performing, Chelsea spending half a billion on players to be sat in 11th, etc breaking into the top 4 this season is a huge achievement.

Combine these and it's a guarantee that I'm going to get some stick :shrug:
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I know someone who had £4 on Leicester to win the league that season, but he cashed out at Christmas, so not sure if he counts as one of the 47, or that's just people who let it ride.
 
Kudos said:
The betting market isn't always a reliable metric. It's good game to game or within a season but not so much when comparing seasons coming up to a decade apart.

Bigger clubs will have odds weighted against them because of the amounts staked in them and bottom ranked teams routinely got huge odds because it wasn't worth the effort of actually doing the maths for a market of a few hundred people - I think I read only 47 fans took the 5000/1 odds for Leicester for example. They just slash the base odds now and I expect still find the same few hundred putting in the same stakes.

We were 1000/1 and Southampton were 750/1 at the start of the season.
Even now Southampton are 1000/1 for a top 4 finish which might not even be mathematically possible. Nobody can say in hindsight that Leicester were 7 times less likely to mount a title challenge then Southampton or indeed 5 times less likely than Southampton making the top 4 from their position today.

You're also comparing different starting points because Ranieri was appointed at the start of the season. By the start of this season Eddie had turned a team on 0.45 PPG to one 1.63 PPG more than three times better so naturally at the start of the season odds will be based on that.

I know it's unpopular to suggest the Leicester season was anything other than pure genius from Ranieri - despite him never performing to the same level before or after.

I also know it's unpopular to say Newcastle aren't buying the league and actually in a season with Pep's Man City, Arsenal massively over performing, Chelsea spending half a billion on players to be sat in 11th, etc breaking into the top 4 this season is a huge achievement.

Combine these and it's a guarantee that I'm going to get some stick :shrug:
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You said that Newcastle finishing fourth is a better achievement than Leicester winning the league, this is total nonsense. Sometimes opinions are unpopular because they are just wrong, plain and simple. Flat earthers also get a bit of stick too.

Im not sure a single person said that Ranieri is a genius, but that Leicester title win is by far and away the greatest footballing achievement in England since the start of the 21st century, and it isn’t even close.
 
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