Non- Dorset councils

Maybe people just aren't bothered.

Christchurch is overrepresented in those numbers compared to Bournemouth and Poole so their views will be disproportionately taken into account by the random sample. In fairness Christchurch people seem more concerned about it so maybe that is right. Either that or they have more time on their hands in Christchurch.

 
BTK, I don't understand the reference to 384. It wouldn't surprise me if it is a mistake or misprint or just a dumb echo reporter. It says the results will be analysed and made public.
 
They will take a random sample of 384 responses to provide a 95% accurate idea of the public's views. They aren't going to look at all responses.

 
In statistical theory, taking a population of Christchurch at 50,000, a sample size of 395 views would provide a 95.4% confidence level in gauging the opinion of the entire population (building in a standard 5% margin for error).

Obviously this all gets complicated because it was sent wider than purely the population of Christchurch, and the number of responses was skewed between the different areas of the conurbation etc etc. Statistics are just that. But there's a reason 395 were picked and a reason they've said they can be 95% confident. It's maths.
 
But its not 385 from Christchurch, its from East Dorset. Seems a bit odd to me, although the echo has changed its original wording already.
 
It is definitely badly worded. I read it as 384 samples will be taken from the 14,000 total number of responses from across Dorset.


 
Thing is SDD analysis of 14000 replies many thousands of which were done online is not a massive task. The survey was short and straight forward. A couple of temps could input all the answers in a week and the answers analysed by computer in the blink of an eye. Smacks of laziness to me.
 
A couple of temps

Where are the scarce public funds coming from to pay for extra resources ?

Where is the funding coming from for the reshape, will onerous contracts need to be renegotiated with the multiple outsourced solution providers ?
 
redharry - 17/11/2016 12:24

Thing is SDD analysis of 14000 replies many thousands of which were done online is not a massive task. The survey was short and straight forward. A couple of temps could input all the answers in a week and the answers analysed by computer in the blink of an eye. Smacks of laziness to me.
Click to expand...

Exactly they could easily check each one, otherwise what was the point of people filling in their forms online or sending them in.
 
What benefit is there in reading through them all rather than using a sample size that will give you 95% accuracy on what they say. It's not a democratic vote is it so I don't see what the problem with random sampling is. It would be a problem if they are cherry picking the answers they want but if the sample is truly random then what is the issue?
 
Agree SDD but is 384 a sufficient size sample of 16000 questionnaires. 2.5% ? Its also not necessary to read each one, simply key the answers in to a database and extrapolate the answers.
 
Now being discussed in Parliament.

https://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2016-12-01a.1775.1&s=speaker%3A25427#g1778.0
 
Interesting link - it all sounds very petty to me. I find that Chope disingenuous - how are Christchurch going to maintain their so called independence if all of the others merge? They are not a unitary authority, it's already one of the smallest council's in the country and given their age profile their adult social care bill must be huge. He doesn't seem to concern himself with those questions though.
 
If the councils are all going to join up as one, shouldn't the different tax bands be the same?


Exactly. I had a very civilised conversation yesterday with the deputy leader and chief executive of Purbeck Council. My hon. Friend is quite right that there will be plenty of opportunities, but what I am keen to do in this debate is to make sure that we have a discussion on the basis of the facts. The shortcomings of the consultation so far have meant that the facts have been covered up from the people.

As with all such possible changes, the beneficiaries are keen to shout loudest. Both Bournemouth and Poole Councils have chosen over recent years to freeze their council taxes, while Christchurch and East Dorset have been more realistic in their approach. It is insulting to my constituents that Poole and Bournemouth should now expect Christchurch residents to subsidise their councils—currently in the case of Poole £196 lower than in Christchurch and £161 lower in Bournemouth.

Council taxes in Christchurch and East Dorset are very similar to the national average, which was £1,484 in 2015-16, while the average tax in East Dorset over the same period was £1,720, the second highest in England, and £1,756—the highest—in Weymouth and Portland. Although only tangential to tonight’s debate, I am not sure how many people living in the Weymouth borough realise that under the proposals in the consultation paper they would continue to have to pay at least £150 extra each year compared with other parts of rural Dorset.
 
Freezing council tax made sense as central funding rewarded these councils. A stand alone Christchurch would have to pay whoever supplied non local services, interesting sovereignty debate continues.
 
Headline says public want merger, reading the story re Christchurch I am not so sure.


The principle of reducing the number of councils to two was backed by 73 per cent in the household survey and 67 per cent in the open survey.

But there was a disparity at Christchurch, where a merger with Bournemouth and Poole was backed by 54 per cent of the 459 households who responded to a postal survey but by only 24 per cent of the 1,446 who chose to take part in the open survey.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/14946957.Public_wants_council_merger__local_authorities_say_as_results_of_consultation_announced/

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/districts/christchurch/14944821.Christchurch_council____bullying____councillors_over_supercouncil__claims_MP_Chris_Chope/
 
billythekid - 5/12/2016 15:55

Headline says public want merger, reading the story re Christchurch I am not so sure.

The principle of reducing the number of councils to two was backed by 73 per cent in the household survey and 67 per cent in the open survey.

But there was a disparity at Christchurch, where a merger with Bournemouth and Poole was backed by 54 per cent
Click to expand...

So the majority in Christchurch did back it then?
 
I think the Echo story has been edited - it now says that 54% opposed any sort of merger but this was just the 'open' surveys where anyone could complete it rather than the household survey, which was randomly sent out and had 63% support for the merger. This was still lower than the rest of Dorset.

Interestingly the Echo has tweeted that a dubious unofficial 'advisory guide' was returned with some of the questionnaires with instructions on how to 'strongly disagree' with the merger proposals. This was not official council correspondence. There's no indication of how many there were but it is possible that some kind of orchestrated campaign happened in Christchurch - that might explain why they had significantly more respondents that other areas per capita. Not that this means they are wrong to oppose it but something is odd.


 
DJ - 5/12/2016 18:39

billythekid - 5/12/2016 15:55

Headline says public want merger, reading the story re Christchurch I am not so sure.

The principle of reducing the number of councils to two was backed by 73 per cent in the household survey and 67 per cent in the open survey.

But there was a disparity at Christchurch, where a merger with Bournemouth and Poole was backed by 54 per cent
Click to expand...

So the majority in Christchurch did back it then?
Click to expand...

This bit was missing.

But there was a disparity in Christchurch, where 54 per cent of the 1,446 who took part in the ‘open’ consultation opposed a reduction to two councils. In the household survey – which the report says is more representative because it went to a scientifically selected sample – there was 63 per cent support for the idea among the 459 respondents.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/newS/14946957.Public_wants_council_merger__local_authorities_say_as_results_of_consultation_announced/
 
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