Non - Pandemic

Kudos said:
Then you're beyond help
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Why dont you just spell it out instead of being condescending? There are a load of stats in that link. It's possible that you're referring to the lack of social distancing, which is not required any more and so I can't see why this would be what you mean when you accuse people of not acting like adults.
 
DJ said:
It was “a” model, there were others, some worse some better.

For example the graphs I was posting and were slated by some, only showed the potential for 50,000 by July based on whether or not step 4 came on the date that was eventually delayed.

The peak was around 60,000.

I dare say if someone put something together for all the trends and models and published an average number they might have been very accurate indeed...but that doesn’t make headlines to prove a point.
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https://twitter.com/x/status/1435229778638954500
 
DJ said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1435229778638954500
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Strangely, the ones with the narrowest confidence interval seems to be the accurate ones. For example, we have just passed through a couple whose maximum ranged from about 600 to 1,000 hospital admissions per day, bang on the button. But we have also just passed one that gave a 95% confidence range of about 900 to 3,700, which would be so wide a range as to be barely useful as a forecast, even if it had been right.

Of course, hospital admissions are very strongly a function of capacity relative to need, as well as to number of cases. I'd be surprised if there weren't people being admitted now who would not have been admitted with those symptoms in January, simply because there is more room at present. How a forecaster takes that into account, I have no idea.
 
Mark WFC said:
I see less and less people with masks on and going out etc so there is definitely a feel of normality around.

There wasn’t even any fuss about kids going back to school this time.

Might all change in the winter but atm people appear able to get on with their lives as normal.
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Fewer, not less.. See me after class.
 
Mark WFC said:
I see less and less people with masks on and going out etc so there is definitely a feel of normality around.

There wasn’t even any fuss about kids going back to school this time.

Might all change in the winter but atm people appear able to get on with their lives as normal.
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Wait a week or so for the case numbers to rise so the usual suspects can blame schools. Ignoring the level of community infection being the reason as its kind of stand out obvious that if more people have the virus you have more chance of catching it and/or testing positive...

Interestingly Scotland's positive cases were very closely predicted following their unlocking, which wasn't the case in England with many of the headline-catching models.

They saw schools re-open earlier, saw an increase in cases immediately, but when it settled down after a couple of weeks and entered the phase where you would expect spread to be happening in schools it plateaued. Of course spread in schools is inevitable with the delta variant and cases so high, but it hasn't spread like wildfire in schools like other viruses have done.
 
Tronathan82 said:
Covid is not a flu... both are respiratory illnesses but they are different viruses. And the risks to young kids between the two aren't much different, though Covid is more infectious (and obviously more dangerous to the population overall). So Burnley is basically right.

I don't mean to be rude but I keep reading your excitable posts and am never any clearer about what you actually want. You seem to be very annoyed even when people are acting perfectly legally and in line with government advice.
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Be as Rude as you like about my posts..I don't mind... as myself I do Rude when feeling it necessary!

And you annoyed too - about another's mere opinion...and you recognise Covid is dangerous...and/but as you say, its not a Flu...
Covid itself, its organisms, they dont mind what you call them, what 'word' you attach to them..they Kill !
What do I want ?...Christ...its more a case of what I don't want for my family ..early death....neither do I want that for anyone You know !
Excitable posts'? and no clarity about what I want ?....whatever..but I care not too heavily about my age - group...we have had the best of it ..long enough and relatively trouble free lives..in terms of epidemics..most of us had jabs as kids for things like Polio and Diptheria..and later those of going or serving abroad had jabs for Yellow fever and Cholera...all very disciplined and practical...more so I think than today's society. Less bolshie and political!
Essentially I don't want to see any amount of Kids, Teens and People under 50 or so dying from this...over this coming Winter !
 
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