Stats 23/24

AFCB attempted 9 crosses, being successful with 2 (from Cook and Kerkez).

Crossing.JPG

Our players tried to take on a man 26 times, being successful 16 times. Tavernier excelled with 4 success from 5 attempts and Semenyo had 3 from 3., Solanke was less successful with 0 from 3.

Take Ons.JPG
 
We created 8 chances (one big). Brighton created 11 chances with three big.

Chances Created.JPG

We had 12 attempts (3 big for Brooks and two for Solanke) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target 3 times. Brighton had 13 attempts, 3 big, and hit the target 4 times.

Attempts.JPG
 
AFCB won 1 of 12 aerials duals. In all games bar Spurs, we have won less than half, but this is the lowest so far.

Aerial.JPG

AFCB won 24 out of 31 tackles with Philip winning most 4 (from 6), Aarons winning 3 from 3, and Kerkez and Zarbanyi 3 from 4.

Tackles.JPG
 
Kelly had most defensive actions with 18. Zabarnyi made the most interceptions, Kelly made most recoveries, the most clearances and the most blocks. Well done Kelly.

IRCB.JPG

According to Opta AFCB made no mistakes leading to chances (and thus goals).

We committed 17 fouls, with Kerkez and Senesi having three each. As the Argentine came on in the 82nd minute, this was a high rate of fould. Kerkez was our most fouled player (3 times)

Fouls.JPG
 
Solanke had the highest xG (0.53). Brooks was second with 0.28. In terms of xA no player had a value above 0.10. I don’t know why Christie’s block to Solanke wasn’t included, maybe the assist has to be a pass.

AFCB had an xGc of 1.85 and let in 3, so did worse than expected although Kerkez’s oown goal would have not registered for Brighton.

xG and xA.JPG
 
USCherry said:
Article focused on Chelsea but interesting to see that we are bang on the expected position based on their model, but slightly below expected points.

theanalyst.com

The Data That Shows Chelsea Should be Fourth | The Analyst

The Chelsea owners are confident results will soon reflect the data they are studying. Perhaps they've been looking at expected points?
theanalyst.com theanalyst.com
Click to expand...
Thank you for sharing this. The alt3 table which attempts something similar, is on hiatus. Their expected points table is a much more sophisticated approach to what my points tracker attempts for Bournemouth. Things will be rosier (for some) when we're not playing the best teams in the League every week.
 
538 hasn't updated all season, but I did find this....interestingly given our start they have us at only an 8% chance of finishing in the relegation spots

www.playoffstatus.com

English Premier League Table

The EPL table presents the probabilities that a team will win each table spot.
www.playoffstatus.com www.playoffstatus.com
 
USCherry said:
538 hasn't updated all season, but I did find this....interestingly given our start they have us at only an 8% chance of finishing in the relegation spots

www.playoffstatus.com

English Premier League Table

The EPL table presents the probabilities that a team will win each table spot.
www.playoffstatus.com www.playoffstatus.com
Click to expand...

Unfortunately it isn't being updated this year (budget reasons) but still good to know it was about 1 in 12 of being relegated. That could be before buying Adams and Scott too.
 
USCherry said:
538 hasn't updated all season, but I did find this....interestingly given our start they have us at only an 8% chance of finishing in the relegation spots

www.playoffstatus.com

English Premier League Table

The EPL table presents the probabilities that a team will win each table spot.
www.playoffstatus.com www.playoffstatus.com
Click to expand...
FiveThirtyEight had been sold to Disney, who have essentially decided to shut it down, I think. Here is a simulation from Opta that is similar to what they were doing. It has us projected to 17th at the moment.

theanalyst.com

Opta Football Predictions | The Analyst

Opta football predictions for the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and UEFA Europa League.
theanalyst.com theanalyst.com
 
Kicks_On_66 said:
FiveThirtyEight had been sold to Disney, who have essentially decided to shut it down, I think. Here is a simulation from Opta that is similar to what they were doing. It has us projected to 17th at the moment.

theanalyst.com

Opta Football Predictions | The Analyst

Opta football predictions for the Premier League, UEFA Champions League, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1, Bundesliga and UEFA Europa League.
theanalyst.com theanalyst.com
Click to expand...

Thanks for the link. It has us as going down about 2 in 5, which seems too high for me. Hopefully a few wins when the fixtures turns will put this right.
 
Kicks_On_66 said:
Thank you for sharing this. The alt3 table which attempts something similar, is on hiatus. Their expected points table is a much more sophisticated approach to what my points tracker attempts for Bournemouth. Things will be rosier (for some) when we're not playing the best teams in the League every week.
Click to expand...
So frustrating about the alt3 thing. Seems like all he has to do is plug the results in a spreadsheet.
 
It’s a labour of love documenting a game where we didn’t really turn up. Although in my mind this is the only one so far this season. Two rash challenges to give away two penalties pretty much sealed our fate, although for the first 40 mins we sounded competitive (I was listening on the radio).

The first real chance of the gap was an open goal for Arsenal. Odegaard swung over a cross to Jesus who headed at goal (rated 1 in 50). It struck the face of the goal, with Neto trying to keep it out and rebounded to an unmarked Saka to head home (nearly 4 in 5). I don’t know enough about goalkeeping to know if Neto should have done better, but Kerkez will be disappointed he didn’t track Saka’s run from wide. The game had hardly any chances approaching half time until Aarons slid in on Nketiah and didn’t get the ball. Penalty to Arsenal which Odegaard scored (about 3 in 4). At half time the xG was AFCB 0.23 and Arsenal 1.76, with Solanke having AFCB’s biggest chance. A shot rated 1 in 8 that was put wide.

The second half started brighter, Saka having a big chance (about 1 in 2) that was saved and in the same move Zinchenko having an effort blocked (1 in 10) and Solanke having a headed chance (1 in 11). The game was effectively over after 52 minutes when Christie slid in on Odegaard to give aay another penalty (about 3 in 4) and it was 3-0 to Arsenal. There were hardly any chances in the next 20 minutes although AFCB did had a 5-minute period of pressure with attempts (all about 1 in 10) from Philip, Ouattara and Kerkez. But it appeared Arsenal were just holding us at bay. Near the end of the game Smith-Rowe had a good chance (38%) saved by Neto before in additional time White was unmarked from a free kick to head home (about 1 in 3) having lost his man (I think Semenyo) stepping back from an offside position before the kick was taken.

The xG was AFCB 0.64 Chelsea 4.14, although Opta had it less one-sided, but still a comprehensive Arsenal win (0.65 vs 3.43).

xG Timeline.JPG
 
We continued to play a high line with all but Neto (1) and the two centre backs (Senesi (25) and Zabarnyi (27)) having an average position in Arsenal’s half. Kluivert’s (19) positioning is interesting being more tucked centrally alongside Cook (4) whilst the opposite winger Tavernier (16) was furthest forward in the team. From this diagram it appears that Kerkez (3) was providing more of the attacking threat on the left. The game was effectively over when we made our first substitutes with the wingers replaced, as is Iraola’s way with Sinisterra (17) replacing Kluivert and Ouattara (11) replacing Tavernier. Whilst Sinisterra was wider than Kluivert, the imbalance in advancement on the flanks was maintained. Possibly this was to provide more protection against Saka as you assume this was a tactical decision. In the 75th minute Rothwell (8) replaced Philip in a holding role. In the 83rd minute Smith (15) replaced Kerkez and Semenyo (24) came on for Christie. Semenyo’s position was not overly advanced compared to previous games where he has come on as a substitute.

Av Posit.JPG
 
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