Stats 23/24

Kicks_On_66 said:
Another fun note: today AFCB are number 50 on Opta's global power rankings.

theanalyst.com

The Best Football Teams in the World: Opta Power Rankings

Who are the best teams in world football? A question that’s often asked, but one that isn’t always easy to answer – not for any longer.
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That is crazy.
However, looking at the teams ahead of us on that list, we should realistically be able to crack top 25-30 or so if we maintain our current form.
 
Here is the xG timeline for the Arsenal game. In that first half the play by Arsenal was the best I’ve seen from an opposition as they were creating numerous chances around the 1 in 10 mark with Trossard having 3 and Partey, Havertz, Odegaard and Rice all having similar efforts. Yet, somehow it was still 0-0 as we neared half time. Then Odegaard found Havertz in space, who knocked the ball past Travers and made sure his trailing leg hit the keepers’ outstretched leg. The debate about clever play and cheating will continue, but we’ve seen them given many times. Saka put the penalty away cooly (about 4 in 5) and it was 1-0 Arsenal. At the break, the xG was Arsenal 1.97, AFCB 0.03. Arsenal started the second half with Saka having a good chance (1 in 4) but shot tamely at Travers. Between the 50 and 60th minutes we began to trade blows rather than just receive them, with Solanke having our biggest chance (1 in 5) which was saved by Raya, and Arsenal having 1 in 10 chances from Saka, Havertz and Gabriel. The game settled down for 10 minutes until Trossard scored (1 in 7) following a superb flick from Rice who knew where his team mate was. Immediately AFCB hit back, with a disallowed goal which does not get added to xG. This was a very controversial decision, with Solanke penalised for the slightest of nudges on Raya but with Philip being fouled before this happened. It is hard to see how a penalty to Bournemouth or a goal was not the correct decision, but somehow VAR backed the referee (and presumably didn’t mention the foul on Philip). If it had gone to 2-1 it would have been a nervy 20 minutes. Arsenal seemed content to see out time and there was only 2 chances in the last 20 minutes, both to Arsenal, with Odegaard missing a very good chance (almost 1 in 2) and Rice scoring in the final moments after a run from deep. The chance was rated as 1 in 9 and Travers might look back and think he could have done better. Arsenal were clearly the better team, and Rice was excellent, but the refereeing decisions were still controversial. The final xG was Arsenal 3.38, AFCB 0.47. Understat had it more in Arsenal’s favour, at 3.91 vs 0.46.

xG timeline.png
 
The team was largely as expected apart from Kelly not being in the squad meaning Ouattara (11) played left back, which was concerning as he was up against Saka, although Dango played very well. Cook (4) played deeper than Christie (11) although he did move into the back line when Senesi (25) was replaced on 80 minutes. The first change was replacing Scott (14) who had been booked early on with Philip (29) although this changed looked planned just before Trossard had put Arsenal 2 goals up. With 10 minutes remaining Senesi was replaced with Unal (26) who played furthest forward. In the 89th minute Smith (15) who had been booked and Kluivert (19) were replaced by Aarons (37) and Faivre (8) with I think Semenyo (24) switching wings.

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Senesi had most touches in total (67) ahead of Zabarnyi (66). Christie and Semenyo had the joint highest number of touches in both the opposition half (26) and in the final third with 16.

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AFCB had 11 touches in the opposition’s penalty area. Solanke had the most (5) followed by Semenyo with 3.

Pen Area Touches.png
 
Zabarnyi attempted most passes with 60, Christie attempted most in the opposition’s half (19) and in the final third with 11. We averaged 82% completion with five players having values over 85% (Zabarnyi, Smith, Christie, Cook and Scott).

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AFCB attempted 13 crosses, being successful with none.

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Our players tried to take on a man 22 times being successful 7 times. Kluivert was successful twice from 3 attempts, with both Cook and Faivre, being successful in their only attempt.

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AFCB created 3 chances (1 big). Christie set up 2 of these. Arsenal created 20 chances, four big.

Chances Created.png

We had 7 attempts (1 big) noting that chances can be provided after saves, deflections or a defensive error and not created. We hit the target three times. Arsenal had 25 attempts, 5 big, and hit the target 9 times.

Attempts.png
 
AFCB won 19 of 34 aerials duals. Ouattara won 5 from 5 and Solanke won 4 from 6.

Aerial.png

AFCB won 14 of 27 tackles. Ouattara won 5 from 6 and Kluivert won 3 from 4.

Tackles.png
 
Ouattara made most defensive actions with 15. He made most interceptions (3) with Cook, most recoveries (8) and most clearances (4). Senesi and Zabarnyi made joint-most blocks (3). The total number of defensive actions was the second lowest this season after Nottm Forest away.

IRCB.png

According to Opta, AFCB made one errors leading to a chance (made by Christie).

The foul count was AFCB 12, Arsenal 15. Christie made most fouls (3). Kluivert and Solanke were fouled four times.

Fouls.png
 
The Opta expected goals had Solanke as most likely to score (0.22) with Kluivert (0.13) the only other player above 0,10, although this would change if the disallowed goal had stood. For assists, Christie (0.09) was top, no other player was above 0.05.

xG and xA.png
 
I assigned a very low expectation for points against Arsenal in this tracker, so AFCB are still about 10 points to the good. My prediction of as many as 51 points remains in play.
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The latest Opta season simulation gives us about a 60% chance of finishing 9th or 10th.
 
Yesterday's was quite a low value for the "post-transformation" AFCB, but does not indicate anything to me beyond playing against one of the top sides in the world.
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The xGA at Arsenal was the highest of the season (second highest was at home to Arsenal). Of greater interest to me, it is significantly higher than our marks since match 10 at home to Burnley. It's a good day to turn the page and start getting ready to punish Brentford.

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does anyone know, definitively or otherwise, why our goal was disallowed?
I just had lunch with mr coote and he didn't have a fcuking clue
 
New Forest Cherry said:
does anyone know, definitively or otherwise, why our goal was disallowed?
I just had lunch with mr coote and he didn't have a fcuking clue
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I believe it’s because if we had achieved a result in that game, then the title race (which doesn’t even exist in the first place as we all know that Man City will win the rest of their games) would be officially over and Sky would have a hard time marketing their product over the next few weeks.
 
Waz afcb said:
I believe it’s because if we had achieved a result in that game, then the title race (which doesn’t even exist in the first place as we all know that Man City will win the rest of their games) would be officially over and Sky would have a hard time marketing their product over the next few weeks.
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point taken
rephrase; does anyone know, definitively or otherwise, why our goal was disallowed what excuse was given for disallowing our goal?
 
It’s been reported that it was because Solanke fouled Raya. No pundit I have heard has supported the decision to disallow the goal (without giving a penalty). Someone mentioned Keown might have agreed, but he isn’t the most intellectually gifted.
 
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