You’re the plonker. You once again deliberately manipulate what I said. I said that teams who have to hang on for dear life for a point at Millwall probably don’t get promoted.
The verdict
- Thread starter Waz afcb
- Start date
Very hurtful.
DJ
Moderator
Very much this. It’s the Championship it’s the very nature of the beast. Fans, commentators, pundits all seem to forget that.
Neil Dawson
UTC Legend
One encouraging sign for me is that we are clearly in a sticky spell but got a draw last night and should have got a draw Saturday. Normally at your lowest you take a few clear defeats by a couple goals or more.
That said since the second half v Derby our pattern and shape seems to have gone. Only a short period I know but still a concern. Kelly and Billing will make a difference to that if we can get them back for Fulham and I think we need Smithy in one of the two full back positions. Don’t know if he is carrying a knock but Stacey has looked well off his best in last two games.
Good test this for the new management team.
That said since the second half v Derby our pattern and shape seems to have gone. Only a short period I know but still a concern. Kelly and Billing will make a difference to that if we can get them back for Fulham and I think we need Smithy in one of the two full back positions. Don’t know if he is carrying a knock but Stacey has looked well off his best in last two games.
Good test this for the new management team.
blandford_cherry
UTC Legend
Yes and 5 of the top teams last year had to hang on for a draw too. That’s not manipulating, that’s providing you with facts.
You know for a fact that they were hanging on for dear life in those games?
blandford_cherry
UTC Legend
Do you know they weren’t? At the end of the day 5 out of 6 games ended in draws, your point is invalid.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
I think lots of things can be used to delve a little deeper into the stats, although I fully accept that there is only one set that actually matter the goals scored and the goals conceded in each game. Goal Difference, possession, clear chances, shots on goals and xG (which is a combination of the last two) should all be linked to how well you expect a team to do, hence it being used in betting. So teams with the biggest GD will be near the top of the league. But they are all curios, and muses for those who like this type of thing. As long as you take them with some scepticism I think they are fun (but have no desire to influence those that don't).
For prediction purposes a site that uses some form of measure of historical ability (both scoring and defending) is preferred because it takes into account we are second and 8 points clear of third! I like 538, which has us with a 69% chance of promotion. (62% of finishing in the top 2)
CherryBare
UTC Legend
To be honest it's a ridiculous point, drawing an away game whether by hanging on or not does not determine promotion. Getting an away point when not playing well, helps...
blandford_cherry
UTC Legend
That looks to deal with too much positivity. Please delete before it’s seen.
blandford_cherry
UTC Legend
You and I can see that. The wind up merchants can’t.
Matt Stevenson
First Team
Following on, here is the xG timeline. I like the way it shows the ebb and flow of chances, although because Lerma made a brilliant interception, it doesn't show on xG, or shots on goal, clear chances etc, but if Lerma hadn't have got the touch I was expecting us to be 2-1 down.
The game was fairly scrappy, as times it reminded me of kids' football with people charging forward but without real quality (the first 20 mins had only one attempt from either side). Only 2 chances were rated above 1 in 10 in the game, which were the goals. (about 2 in 3 for Dom's goal and 2 in 5 for Afobe). We had another 30 min spell in the second half where we didn't have an attempt, which is concerning. I was willing the ref to blow for the last 15 mins based on the pressure we were under (although this wasn't translated into clear chances)
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The game was fairly scrappy, as times it reminded me of kids' football with people charging forward but without real quality (the first 20 mins had only one attempt from either side). Only 2 chances were rated above 1 in 10 in the game, which were the goals. (about 2 in 3 for Dom's goal and 2 in 5 for Afobe). We had another 30 min spell in the second half where we didn't have an attempt, which is concerning. I was willing the ref to blow for the last 15 mins based on the pressure we were under (although this wasn't translated into clear chances)
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New Forest Cherry
Star Player
did you actually go to the game or busy on FIFA?
apparently our XG (your go-to indicator) they were 0.45, hardly an indication of us hanging on for dear life......
can I suggest you dial down the hyperbole and make yourself look less stupid?
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New Forest Cherry
Star Player
fcuking brilliant, so there's more than one version of XG!!!!!!!!!!
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Can I suggest that you stop telling people what to post?
yes- you just need to pick the one that suits your argument bestfcucking brilliant, so there's more than one version of XG!!!!!!!!!!
irony
New Forest Cherry
Star Player
Not people, just you
desperate attempt to try to stop you looking increasingly foolish
Matt Stevenson
First Team
fcucking brilliant, so there's more than one version of XG!!!!!!!!!!
. That's why you shouldn't be putting too much weight in them being accurate, it is a rough estimate at best, one site says 0.71 vs 1.10 and the other 0.47 vs 1.35, so it might be 0.6 vs 1.2.@richnrg, does xG_data compile these plots automatically? If so, I'll save myself 10 mins each game!
