Thoughts v Cardiff

Scrappy to start, Cardiff had chances, Travers doing really well. Little fortunate for the opener but we'll take it. Awful tackle for their sending off. After that it was just a siege and a question of how many, on another day it could have been 5 or 6.
Hoping we can put decent run together and put some distance to the playoffs again. Blackburn and Boro are flying ATM.
 
A good win to end a miserable year. Top of the Championship table. A striker with 18 league goals who works his socks off every game, but reading some of the comments on here, I don't know what would make them happy.

I'm guessing, but a long thread full of likes agreeing that *insert disliked player here* is the worst footballer ever and we should play with just 10 men every game instead.

A run of 7 or 8 defeats would help too.

Probably.
 
Yeah, more than happy to have anything to have a bit of fun with, it’s the people that use it to make a point (when that point suits their narrative of course) that I take umbrage with.

For me to see it as anything but fun though it would need to take into consideration the talent of the players involved in finishing. When the pools panel adjudicate on say Liverpool v Norwich, or the bookies give odds they factor in the quality of the player. Similarly first goal scorer odds. In this day and age it wouldn’t be too hard to write an algorithm that factors in finishing ability so we could distinguish between a chance that fell to Stanislas and Lewis Cook. This would give it more credence .
Happy to label it fun only. Imagine the pleasure of the more complex system. Looking at a different thread we may have some disagreements deciding on the quality of Solanke :grinning:
 
I thought first half we were pretty sloppy and the passing was very very slow . It was always another touch needed from the players
The sending off changed the game . Once 2-0 up there was no coming back and a good win for us .
 
I love stats and get bantered at work for forever pulling out spreadsheets. My lack of love for Xg isn’t that I don’t like stats it’s that it’s not statistically enough!

I don’t think you can have a goal prediction stat that doesn’t take into account the quality of the potential scorer or keeper. If you could factor that in I’d believe it. Harry Kane fifteen yards out against Darryl Flahaven would get the same Xg as Chukki Eribenne against David de Gea.

That will never wash for me….
The way I see xG is that it has two uses, with the first being the best usage.

One is analyzing how clinical a player is at finishing, by pairing it with the actual goals. In theory, xG is predicting based off of an "average" player. Compare chances worth 20 xG that a player has had to their actual goal output from those chances. Did they get 20? They're an "average" finisher. Got 5? A poor finisher, maybe not the player to have at the end of your crosses. Got 40? Clinical, get this man the ball in shooting positions ASAP.

The second is analyzing how often your team gets into scoring positions. Here it does suffer since you can have a really good passage of play get you into excellent crossing positions, but if the final pass is wayward and no shot results then it is ignored by xG.
 
Happy to label it fun only. Imagine the pleasure of the more complex system. Looking at a different thread we may have some disagreements deciding on the quality of Solanke :grinning:
We all get different things from watching football. Our perceptions and enjoyment vary from person to person depending on our age, how much we have played the game, what teams and players we have watched and the number of games attended, and what particular aspects of the beautiful game we find most fascinating. The loyalties handed down to us by our family members are hugely important too.
It is interesting that Matt S is so intrigued by statistics generated by games (and for me xG is a psuedo statistic based on someones's opinions and algorithms that can't possibly account for the thousands of variables that define each opportunity). Even the widely accepted possession percentage seems a bit bogus to me - for example, which team is in possession of the ball when the goalie kicks it 50 or 60 yards through the air from a goal kick, or there is a bout of head tennis in the centre circle, or during a goal mouth scramble when half the players on the pitch are trying to get at the ball? These percentages always add up to 100, but there really should be a third percentage to indicate how long the ball was in the air and/or when neither team could claim to have possession of it.
Personally, I go to football for the love of the game and the enjoyment of the spectacle, seeing great players in action, marvelling at great pieces of individual skill or the uncanny magic of fabulous team moves, memorable goals, fantastic goalkeeping, in a word the excitement of the contest.
There are magic moments that live in the memory that have less than zero to do with statistics, real or bogus: Gordon Banks saving from Pele in Mexico in 1970, Nobby Stiles with his toothless grin jogging round Wembley with the World Cup in 66, seeing George Best slalom through half the Saints team to score a wonder goal at the Dell, Bruce Grobbelaar flying through the air to pluck a goal bound shot out of the sky - the list is endless. Who cares what the xG was for Bretts solo goal in the 5-1 at Craven Cottage, or Steve Cook's piledriver in the same game. And what about that magic moment when Pughie broke the tension at DC like puncturing a huge balloon with the frst goal against Bolton that sent us into the PL for the first time?
And what statistics could ever replace the gale of laughter that engulfed the whole ground when Warren Aspinall playing at DC for Brighton, and who had been booed relentlessly from the start of the game, was poleaxed when hit in the nuts twice in the space of five minutes, gamely getting up to carry on and then receiving good natured cheers instead of boos when he finally left the field.
For me first and foremost watching football is an emotional experience, and it's not just the action. Who present could ever forget the wonderful reception Ian Cox received from our supporters when he returned to DC with Burnley only a few weeks after he left us, or the heartfelt applause given to the young boy who came on to the pitch on Monday to ring a bell in the centre circle to signify his recovery from cancer?
So, sorry Matt, for me football has way to much to offer the senses and the emotions to boil it down to a few often meaningless numbers. I don't knock your fascination with numbers, although I don't share it myself, but I hope that you are not missing all the things that I describe when you examine them.
 
I'm bemused as to why xG get the stick whereas other stats don't, so I am interested in people justifying the distinction.

I suspect it is because they were used out of context to predict that AFCB weren't that good, and as Cherry fans we were never going to like that.

I suspect it's because a lot of us don't really care and because of that don't really understand them. I tend to associate this sort of thing with the semi-static American sports of gridiron and baseball rather free flowing football. It probably appeals to the younger generations that've been able to follow these sports on tv in the UK but your problem is that there are a lot of old men on this forum.;)
 
I suspect it's because a lot of us don't really care and because of that don't really understand them. I tend to associate this sort of thing with the semi-static American sports of gridiron and baseball rather free flowing football. It probably appeals to the younger generations that've been able to follow these sports on tv in the UK but your problem is that there are a lot of old men on this forum.;)

I associate it with stat overload in general society - ridiculous over posting of covid stats (they've gone up, in a pandemic - no shitt!), and the introduction of technology in sport - bloody VAR - completely unfair probably, but as said - there are a lot of old fogeys on here
 
I associate it with stat overload in general society - ridiculous over posting of covid stats (they've gone up, in a pandemic - no shitt!), and the introduction of technology in sport - bloody VAR - completely unfair probably, but as said - there are a lot of old fogeys on here
Please explain the correlation of statistics and technology generally, with "old fogeys." I am older - attended my first Boscombe game in 1961, but I certainly am not left behind with game statistics!

Now I have to watch AFCB games electronically via BBC live text or find a stream sometimes with very spotty performance. I still derive pleasure from watching a superior performance. I am fascinated by the ability today to correlate expected performance with actual performance - isn't that how we all develop and improve?

It is true however that many North American sports are stats-driven, but you can put that aside I think and still enjoy the game in which you have an emotional connection. The trouble with some sports on my side of the Atlantic is that they are too long - 3 hours plus and to me become boring, I have other things to do with my time.
 
Please explain the correlation of statistics and technology generally, with "old fogeys." I am older - attended my first Boscombe game in 1961, but I certainly am not left behind with game statistics!

Now I have to watch AFCB games electronically via BBC live text or find a stream sometimes with very spotty performance. I still derive pleasure from watching a superior performance. I am fascinated by the ability today to correlate expected performance with actual performance - isn't that how we all develop and improve?

It is true however that many North American sports are stats-driven, but you can put that aside I think and still enjoy the game in which you have an emotional connection. The trouble with some sports on my side of the Atlantic is that they are too long - 3 hours plus and to me become boring, I have other things to do with my time.

It was a generalisation. Trust me, I deal with a lot of old fogeys in my dayjob....
 
Great result and a couple of really good goals but the first thirty minutes or so was mostly a shambles with half the players looking like they'd never kicked a football before let alone met their team mates. Obviously, all changed after the red.

Kudos to Travers, Lerma, Billing and Solanke.

Really hope Christie can go on and score a few more now as he is a cut above otherwise.

Cook was okay, not exceptional not crap, but for me Kilkenny already looks better and shows more promise.

Stanislas is just one of those players who's never going to play through the pain or run it off. Lots of talent but the slightest twinge and he's off to his preferred position on the treatment table. I know Smith once conceded a penalty when the ball hit him on the shoulder but someone should tell Stan it's actually foot ball he's playing so that won't happen often.
 
I think the xG is fine to look at as an overall glance thing. Look at everything in isolation and dig down into it and it’ll be more and more questionable.

For example Ryan Christie’s luck in front of goal is summed up well with xG. His work rate, positioning and desire means a high xG of 4, which is a big plus on one hand but of course bagging just one goal means a conversion rate of 1 in 4. Which sounds about right.

Solanke has an xG of 18.3 and he’s scored 18. Which shows how excellent he’s been in front of goal but doesn’t back those who claim he’s missed too many or isn’t a natural scorer etc.
 
I love stats and get bantered at work for forever pulling out spreadsheets. My lack of love for Xg isn’t that I don’t like stats it’s that it’s not statistically enough!

I don’t think you can have a goal prediction stat that doesn’t take into account the quality of the potential scorer or keeper. If you could factor that in I’d believe it. Harry Kane fifteen yards out against Darryl Flahaven would get the same Xg as Chukki Eribenne against David de Gea.

That will never wash for me….

Like all stats though it depends what you use them for. The fact that it doesn't allow for the player involved surely tells you about a striker's ability. If he's outscoring his xG he's clearly better than the average striker given the chances he's had. There's obviously a lot of focus on Solanke missing loads of sitters yet his xG would suggest he actually does better than most strikers (I think - someone may want to correct me). Same goes for the team as a whole.

If teams are creating high xG scored and low xG conceded and still aren't winning games it can point to where the problem is. If the opposite is true they are arguably relying too heavily on a decent striker or keeper.
 
I would think that managers would also be interested in xG from the perspective of what areas of the pitch (in the box) are higher ranked in terms of the xG, and how do I make sure we get players in those positions. I kind of saw a pattern of play under Eddie where the cut back or cross would be around the corner of the 6 yard box with a runner coming in.

But then you would see defenders occupying that spot to intercept or to cut out the chance
 

data is primarily the x, y location on the field where an attempt originates, whether the attempt is made with the foot, the head or another body part and a descriptive assessment of which type of phase of play preceded the attempt.

These numerical inputs are then used to calculate the likelihood that the attempt at scoring will be successful and the visual depiction of this information is uploaded

so, as I suspected, very limited; no mention of capability of the player having the chance, strong/weak foot, defensive cover, keeper position etc unless some of that is included in the visual depiction data.

Either way a very blunt tool
 
We all get different things from watching football. Our perceptions and enjoyment vary from person to person depending on our age, how much we have played the game, what teams and players we have watched and the number of games attended, and what particular aspects of the beautiful game we find most fascinating. The loyalties handed down to us by our family members are hugely important too.
It is interesting that Matt S is so intrigued by statistics generated by games (and for me xG is a psuedo statistic based on someones's opinions and algorithms that can't possibly account for the thousands of variables that define each opportunity). Even the widely accepted possession percentage seems a bit bogus to me - for example, which team is in possession of the ball when the goalie kicks it 50 or 60 yards through the air from a goal kick, or there is a bout of head tennis in the centre circle, or during a goal mouth scramble when half the players on the pitch are trying to get at the ball? These percentages always add up to 100, but there really should be a third percentage to indicate how long the ball was in the air and/or when neither team could claim to have possession of it.
Personally, I go to football for the love of the game and the enjoyment of the spectacle, seeing great players in action, marvelling at great pieces of individual skill or the uncanny magic of fabulous team moves, memorable goals, fantastic goalkeeping, in a word the excitement of the contest.
There are magic moments that live in the memory that have less than zero to do with statistics, real or bogus: Gordon Banks saving from Pele in Mexico in 1970, Nobby Stiles with his toothless grin jogging round Wembley with the World Cup in 66, seeing George Best slalom through half the Saints team to score a wonder goal at the Dell, Bruce Grobbelaar flying through the air to pluck a goal bound shot out of the sky - the list is endless. Who cares what the xG was for Bretts solo goal in the 5-1 at Craven Cottage, or Steve Cook's piledriver in the same game. And what about that magic moment when Pughie broke the tension at DC like puncturing a huge balloon with the frst goal against Bolton that sent us into the PL for the first time?
And what statistics could ever replace the gale of laughter that engulfed the whole ground when Warren Aspinall playing at DC for Brighton, and who had been booed relentlessly from the start of the game, was poleaxed when hit in the nuts twice in the space of five minutes, gamely getting up to carry on and then receiving good natured cheers instead of boos when he finally left the field.
For me first and foremost watching football is an emotional experience, and it's not just the action. Who present could ever forget the wonderful reception Ian Cox received from our supporters when he returned to DC with Burnley only a few weeks after he left us, or the heartfelt applause given to the young boy who came on to the pitch on Monday to ring a bell in the centre circle to signify his recovery from cancer?
So, sorry Matt, for me football has way to much to offer the senses and the emotions to boil it down to a few often meaningless numbers. I don't knock your fascination with numbers, although I don't share it myself, but I hope that you are not missing all the things that I describe when you examine them.
The way I see xG is that it has two uses, with the first being the best usage.

One is analyzing how clinical a player is at finishing, by pairing it with the actual goals. In theory, xG is predicting based off of an "average" player. Compare chances worth 20 xG that a player has had to their actual goal output from those chances. Did they get 20? They're an "average" finisher. Got 5? A poor finisher, maybe not the player to have at the end of your crosses. Got 40? Clinical, get this man the ball in shooting positions ASAP.

The second is analyzing how often your team gets into scoring positions. Here it does suffer since you can have a really good passage of play get you into excellent crossing positions, but if the final pass is wayward and no shot results then it is ignored by xG.

I agree with this, although I would extend the first point to goal keepers too - if you are outsaving the xG conceded then you are probably a good keeper.
 
We all get different things from watching football. Our perceptions and enjoyment vary from person to person depending on our age, how much we have played the game, what teams and players we have watched and the number of games attended, and what particular aspects of the beautiful game we find most fascinating. The loyalties handed down to us by our family members are hugely important too.
It is interesting that Matt S is so intrigued by statistics generated by games (and for me xG is a psuedo statistic based on someones's opinions and algorithms that can't possibly account for the thousands of variables that define each opportunity). Even the widely accepted possession percentage seems a bit bogus to me - for example, which team is in possession of the ball when the goalie kicks it 50 or 60 yards through the air from a goal kick, or there is a bout of head tennis in the centre circle, or during a goal mouth scramble when half the players on the pitch are trying to get at the ball? These percentages always add up to 100, but there really should be a third percentage to indicate how long the ball was in the air and/or when neither team could claim to have possession of it.
Personally, I go to football for the love of the game and the enjoyment of the spectacle, seeing great players in action, marvelling at great pieces of individual skill or the uncanny magic of fabulous team moves, memorable goals, fantastic goalkeeping, in a word the excitement of the contest.
There are magic moments that live in the memory that have less than zero to do with statistics, real or bogus: Gordon Banks saving from Pele in Mexico in 1970, Nobby Stiles with his toothless grin jogging round Wembley with the World Cup in 66, seeing George Best slalom through half the Saints team to score a wonder goal at the Dell, Bruce Grobbelaar flying through the air to pluck a goal bound shot out of the sky - the list is endless. Who cares what the xG was for Bretts solo goal in the 5-1 at Craven Cottage, or Steve Cook's piledriver in the same game. And what about that magic moment when Pughie broke the tension at DC like puncturing a huge balloon with the frst goal against Bolton that sent us into the PL for the first time?
And what statistics could ever replace the gale of laughter that engulfed the whole ground when Warren Aspinall playing at DC for Brighton, and who had been booed relentlessly from the start of the game, was poleaxed when hit in the nuts twice in the space of five minutes, gamely getting up to carry on and then receiving good natured cheers instead of boos when he finally left the field.
For me first and foremost watching football is an emotional experience, and it's not just the action. Who present could ever forget the wonderful reception Ian Cox received from our supporters when he returned to DC with Burnley only a few weeks after he left us, or the heartfelt applause given to the young boy who came on to the pitch on Monday to ring a bell in the centre circle to signify his recovery from cancer?
So, sorry Matt, for me football has way to much to offer the senses and the emotions to boil it down to a few often meaningless numbers. I don't knock your fascination with numbers, although I don't share it myself, but I hope that you are not missing all the things that I describe when you examine them.
Wish I had written that! Excellent, sums up my feelings very well.
 

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