Thoughts v Cardiff

[SlowDownDerek]

good question, although I was questioning the mechanics of the algorithm not the results
if Lewandowski had been presented with those chances would the XG output have been different?

No but that's one of the good uses of xG. Lewandowski will score way more than his predicted goals, indicating he's a great striker. Andy Cole used to score loads and miss loads so he would presumably have a very high xG and probably a lower number of actual goals. This indicates that he was wasteful but got into loads more goalscoring opportunities than most strikers - hence still being a very good forward.

 

[darwinsdummy]

Is it not possible to troll with positivity?
Only asking

I'll occasionally make absurdly optimistic predictions, does that count? Solanke double hat trick coming in on Monday, by the way. You heard it here first

 

[Waz afcb]

Yes maybe, but I've never said, oh we're in a false position in the league, because over the season our XG is lower than the goals we scored

Nor have I. I’ve said that we are in a false position in the league because our performances don’t warrant being top. XG is just added statistical evidence to support this. We have been very lucky in quite a few games this season in which we have relied on opposition forwards missing very presentable chances. Just my opinion, don’t get your knickers in a twist to the extent that you have to bring it up every other post.

 

[TrevorMorganFanClub]

Nor have I. I’ve said that we are in a false position in the league because our performances don’t warrant being top. XG is just added statistical evidence to support this. We have been very lucky in quite a few games this season in which we have relied on opposition forwards missing very presentable chances. Just my opinion, don’t get your knickers in a twist to the extent that you have to bring it up every other post.

Although WBA and Fulham created precious little and both could easily have lost against us despite being considerably better teams/squads?

Happy New Year Waz, I hope you can find at least a little more to be positive about in 2022 and in future years.

 

[table]

Not sure what the xG is for Thoughts v Cardiff but for some I think it's probably minus first half rising to plus 4 second half. Good luck with your new thread Matt, be prepared to have visits from old people, telling you they've got no interest in xG and explaining why. Personally, it's something I don't quite understand and it's not what floats my boat or ignites the Rocket to go to matches. I don't really want to analyse matches anymore than, did we deserve that? Will we carry that into the next match? coH ( carried over Happiness ) is always greater with a positive Cherries rating : )

PS, At last, due to circumstances, I've only just been able to have a Christmas beer ( or more ), apologies if not the intended level of sense was not achieved in this post

 

[Tidalfury]

Nor have I. I’ve said that we are in a false position in the league because our performances don’t warrant being top. XG is just added statistical evidence to support this. We have been very lucky in quite a few games this season in which we have relied on opposition forwards missing very presentable chances. Just my opinion, don’t get your knickers in a twist to the extent that you have to bring it up every other post.

So it’s all down to luck now if anyone can define it

 

[bpl234]

I think there is a valid point . We have been lucky with big missed chances against us on quite a few games this season . Against Cardiff first half if we had gone in 1-0 down it wouldn’t have been a shock.
Each player needed 3 or 4 passes and everything was super slow . The red card did change the game and then we professionally dealt with them and put the game to bed .

if your look at Parker’s plan, we look to create a a triangle of players ie Billing, zemura and Anthony on the left. The little one twos and clever play is where we do get a lot of joy from.
Similar on the right hand side , but this side is pretty disjointed .
Solanke is turning into a top top player .

 

[SlowDownDerek]

I think there is a valid point . We have been lucky with big missed chances against us on quite a few games this season . Against Cardiff first half if we had gone in 1-0 down it wouldn’t have been a shock.
Each player needed 3 or 4 passes and everything was super slow . The red card did change the game and then we professionally dealt with them and put the game to bed .

if your look at Parker’s plan, we look to create a a triangle of players ie Billing, zemura and Anthony on the left. The little one twos and clever play is where we do get a lot of joy from.
Similar on the right hand side , but this side is pretty disjointed .
Solanke is turning into a top top player .

But we've missed big chances too. Everyone does.

 

[Bitzer]

But we've missed big chances too. Everyone does.

Absolutely. And I'm getting a bit p#ssed off with people saying "if it wasn't for Travers". He's a goalkeeper, that's what he's there for.

 

[SlowDownDerek]

Absolutely. And I'm getting a bit p#ssed off with people saying "if it wasn't for Travers". He's a goalkeeper, that's what he's there for.

Agree. Mind you Travers does deserve a lot of credit. At the start of the season the loss of Begovic was being used as an example of how much weaker this season's squad is. Not now.

 

[MB1980]

But we've missed big chances too. Everyone does.

Was going to say, we've missed a lot of excellent chances over the season. It's rare we've been pinned back for long periods, hanging on for dear life, apart Fulham and the odd game earlier in the season when holding onto a lead.

We've generally dictated games.

 

[Sorry Roger]

Just watched the Alternative Angle highlights on COWS. From that angle, you could clearly see that the Bacuna foul on Billing was shocking.

 

[darwinsdummy]

Just watched the Alternative Angle highlights on COWS. From that angle, you could clearly see that the Bacuna foul on Billing was shocking.

Yup. I forgot who it was, but someone here earlier admitted that initially it looked like nothing, just a simple yellow, and I'll admit I did too. I thought it was just a one-legged tackle coming from behind/side to trip Billing up. But when you see the slomo replay...it's as red as a communist flag, absolutely terrible.

 

[rgb]

<snip>
And what statistics could ever replace the gale of laughter that engulfed the whole ground when Warren Aspinall playing at DC for Brighton, and who had been booed relentlessly from the start of the game, was poleaxed when hit in the nuts twice in the space of five minutes, gamely getting up to carry on and then receiving good natured cheers instead of boos when he finally left the field.

I thought that was versus Colchester? Same strip I suppose, sort of Tesco carrier bag.
He sat next to me a few years back - when we were tearing up the 3rd Division - scouting for some club (I think he was there to watch Keiron Trippier) and I didn't recognise him - no hair and a considerable gut - but occasional poster on here, Ronnie Bolton, asked me at half time, what our conversation was about. I was a tad embarrassed at not recognising him, so took him out some cake and coffee (to go with the sandwiches he'd brought along)

For me first and foremost watching football is an emotional experience, and it's not just the action. Who present could ever forget the wonderful reception Ian Cox received from our supporters when he returned to DC with Burnley only a few weeks after he left us,
<snip>

Was it the week after and our first match after he'd left? He was so humble at the reception he received. He also completely fluffed an open goal in front of the South End.

 

[blandford_cherry]

Nor have I. I’ve said that we are in a false position in the league because our performances don’t warrant being top. XG is just added statistical evidence to support this. We have been very lucky in quite a few games this season in which we have relied on opposition forwards missing very presentable chances. Just my opinion, don’t get your knickers in a twist to the extent that you have to bring it up every other post.

It’s an opinion yes but factually we are top for a reason and that’s the only one that matters. It’s also not a false position, the game is determined by actual goals scored and conceded and results deemed from that. You can go on about XG as much as you like. We deserve to be top at the moment.

Happy New Year though.

 

[RobTrent]

Nor have I. I’ve said that we are in a false position in the league because our performances don’t warrant being top. XG is just added statistical evidence to support this. We have been very lucky in quite a few games this season in which we have relied on opposition forwards missing very presentable chances. Just my opinion, don’t get your knickers in a twist to the extent that you have to bring it up every other post.

But surely all the other teams (bar Fulham) have had some poor performances which warrants them being lower in the league than us?

If we were in the bottom four I don't think I'd get away with saying our performances didn't deserve it.

 

[LewSwimmin]

Looks like you're right about Colchester rgb. Coincidentally WA played for both them and Brighton during 1999 and 2000 but checking the records we didn't play Brighton at home in the League during that time. Blue and White stripes rule and memory fading fast!!
Coxy returned very quickly with Burnley after he left us - not sure if it was actually the very next game.

 

[MB1980]

Looks like you're right about Colchester rgb. Coincidentally WA played for both them and Brighton during 1999 and 2000 but checking the records we didn't play Brighton at home in the League during that time. Blue and White stripes rule and memory fading fast!!
Coxy returned very quickly with Burnley after he left us - not sure if it was actually the very next game.

Yeah was 100% v col u.

 

[rgb]

Looks like you're right about Colchester rgb. Coincidentally WA played for both them and Brighton during 1999 and 2000 but checking the records we didn't play Brighton at home in the League during that time. Blue and White stripes rule and memory fading fast!!
Coxy returned very quickly with Burnley after he left us - not sure if it was actually the very next game.

I've just had a quick Google; it was our next home game, 12th Feb 2000. We had Luton away the previous week and IC made his Burnley debut at Turf Moor, vs BRovers.

 

[table]

Yup. I forgot who it was, but someone here earlier admitted that initially it looked like nothing, just a simple yellow, and I'll admit I did too. I thought it was just a one-legged tackle coming from behind/side to trip Billing up. But when you see the slomo replay...it's as red as a communist flag, absolutely terrible.

There's some photos on COWS that capture perfectly how bad that tackle was.

Ps. Whoever takes those photos, my humble non-professional opinion is that, they are very good at their job : )