Thoughts v West Brom

[Vlad_The_Impaler]

A lot of what you say is very true. I have a lot of knowledge re our team and the championship so why would I not use that to my advantage and make some money? This whole ‘never bet against your own team’ thing makes very little sense to me. Logically this doesn’t hold up. It makes me laugh that some posters seem to see it as some kind of betrayal lol it’s an opportunity to make money, why wouldn’t I? It’s not like it will effect the outcome anyway. If I turn out to be right then the fact I bet on it won’t have impacted the outcome.

The only thing I disagree with is the bit where you say it isn’t predictable. Surely the fact that Forest haven’t lost since jan in itself proves the point that them picking up a positive result every week is very predictable. They have just hit upon a formula and set of players under a very good manager that is going to make them very very difficult to stop at this point. Not only is their league form insane, they also beat Arsenal and Leicester and were very unlucky to narrowly lose to Liverpool. I honestly think that they are so good now that (barring injuries) I can envisage a situation in which they may not even drop any more points during the run in. Im interested to know whether those who are telling me I’m throwing my money away have actually seen them play recently. I believe that they are better than Fulham as they currently are under Cooper.

If Forest get to within 3 points of us with 2 or 3 games to go I will do the bet for insurance and I will hope to lose. And I agree I don't think it's a betrayal, In my mind I've always thought it actually shows that you care more because I was willing to lose £50 a game if we avoided defeat at Selhurst Park for example and I'm not a big earner that's half a days wage for me, gone within 90 mins in the hope that we even draw 0-0 at Crystal Palace.

Yes they're on form, looking good, riding high on confidence and haven't lost since Jan in league but the chances of them winning all 8 games left would be a mixture of miraculous endeavour, luck and against the common derivative of how end of the season results go when it get's nervy for teams competing for promotion who are always certain to drop points. In theory they could even win all 8 games left including against us, at Luton, against WBA, Fulham etc and we could lose to them and to Sheff Utd and still finish 2nd but we know that won't happen. I wouldn't factor in the FA Cup games due to the changes those teams made, they've won 4 on the bounce and done what they needed to do but those games were Blackpool away, Reading, QPR, Coventry at home, all who are winding down their season without jeopardy. Before that run they had few tricky games in a row drew 3 of 4 against Sheff Utd, Preston and Stoke (away). They're not invincible though and I think one more game where they drop points may mentally see them accept playoffs. We also know a few of their players like Surridge and Grabban

 

[Waz afcb]

You really do think you know the championship inside out.
At the start of the season, you claimed WBA squad was far superior to ours.
You then claim WBA made bad managerial appointments, whilst still claiming a far superior squad.
When WBA beat us midweek, you say we lost to a poor team.
How does this work exactly?

Good players don’t necessarily make a good team. There are many examples of this. Look at Forest for example, many of their players are the same to the squad they started the season with, yet they have gone from looking utter dross to looking like a force to be reckoned with.

Having said that I will take the hit on West Brom, although they are certainly massively underperforming (they easily have the quality to comfortably be in the play offs,) to say that they had a far superior squad than we do was incorrect. I was wrong about that. I believe my knowledge of this league is very good. I was wrong when it comes to them though.

 

[Waz afcb]

And btw, before people start to pile in on me for whatever reason, how often do you see any poster on this forum admitting to being wrong about anything? NewForest Cherry for example is presented with the evidence right in front of him and still won’t admit to it. I’m sure I won’t get any credit for it though, never mind ;-)

 

[Waz afcb]

If Forest get to within 3 points of us with 2 or 3 games to go I will do the bet for insurance and I will hope to lose. And I agree I don't think it's a betrayal, In my mind I've always thought it actually shows that you care more because I was willing to lose £50 a game if we avoided defeat at Selhurst Park for example and I'm not a big earner that's half a days wage for me, gone within 90 mins in the hope that we even draw 0-0 at Crystal Palace.

Yes they're on form, looking good, riding high on confidence and haven't lost since Jan in league but the chances of them winning all 8 games left would be a mixture of miraculous endeavour, luck and against the common derivative of how end of the season results go when it get's nervy for teams competing for promotion who are always certain to drop points. In theory they could even win all 8 games left including against us, at Luton, against WBA, Fulham etc and we could lose to them and to Sheff Utd and still finish 2nd but we know that won't happen. I wouldn't factor in the FA Cup games due to the changes those teams made, they've won 4 on the bounce and done what they needed to do but those games were Blackpool away, Reading, QPR, Coventry at home, all who are winding down their season without jeopardy. Before that run they had few tricky games in a row drew 3 of 4 against Sheff Utd, Preston and Stoke (away). They're not invincible though and I think one more game where they drop points may mentally see them accept playoffs. We also know a few of their players like Surridge and Grabban

Hopefully you are right, but I fear that I will be in this occasion. We will see.

 

[afcdibby]

Good players don’t necessarily make a good team. There are many examples of this. Look at Forest for example, many of their players are the same to the squad they started the season with, yet they have gone from looking utter dross to looking like a force to be reckoned with.

Having said that I will take the hit on West Brom, although they are certainly massively underperforming (they easily have the quality to comfortably be in the play offs,) to say that they had a far superior squad than we do was incorrect. I was wrong about that. I believe my knowledge of this league is very good. I was wrong when it comes to them though.

Fair play Waz.
But to really understand the championship is nearly impossible. It’s a wonderful league and I love being in it.

 

[Vlad_The_Impaler]

And btw, before people start to pile in on me for whatever reason, how often do you see any poster on this forum admitting to being wrong about anything? NewForest Cherry for example is presented with the evidence right in front of him and still won’t admit to it. I’m sure I won’t get any credit for it though, never mind ;-)

You won't ever see someone on a forum where they are faceless and unknown to the other people admit outright that they were wrong about a certain topic because they can get away with it and they aren't jeopardizing their name or reputation. You have to accept that is a big part of the internet, you can get hints though without direct admittance that they may be wrong or weaker in knowledge of a particular topic they claimed to be an expert in - it could be a short/long silence, lack of reply, a personal attack of abuse without point or merit or even calling you a mad conspiracy theorist if you don't agree with everything the media say. I'll give you a few examples - COVID was obviously very divisive, I choose not too have any jabs because that was my choice first and foremost as is my right but if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine I'd probably be lynched by now by the 4 Jab Militia for not having any as the Gov demanded as people were turning on each other very easily.

If like me you believe we probably aren't and mathematically by percentage of 99.9999% shouldn't be the only living things in all this endless space and the trillions of habitable planets out there, and all that we will never see you're mad tin foil brigade, we're technically made from the mass of dead star energy.
acknowledgement that if Aliens do exist they would be technologically thousands of years ahead of us and either -a) be completely capable of sabotaging and manipulating this world and everything in it or option b) would stay as far away as possible from our destructive nature as we're too primitive in comparison and a mere observational experiment.
However if you believe in a higher power or a religion with less proof you are normal because over half the world believe it.

 

[DJ]

If like me you believe we probably aren't and mathematically by percentage of 99.9999% shouldn't be the only living things in all this endless space and the trillions of habitable planets out there, and all that we will never see you're mad tin foil brigade, we're technically made from the mass of dead star energy.
acknowledgement that if Aliens do exist they would be technologically thousands of years ahead of us and either -a) be completely capable of sabotaging and manipulating this world and everything in it or option b) would stay as far away as possible from our destructive nature as we're too primitive in comparison and a mere observational experiment.
However if you believe in a higher power or a religion with less proof you are normal because over half the world believe it.

That’s a fantastic post, excellent tangent from the original topic and at 2.42am as well.

 

[RobTrent]

You won't ever see someone on a forum where they are faceless and unknown to the other people admit outright that they were wrong about a certain topic because they can get away with it and they aren't jeopardizing their name or reputation. You have to accept that is a big part of the internet, you can get hints though without direct admittance that they may be wrong or weaker in knowledge of a particular topic they claimed to be an expert in - it could be a short/long silence, lack of reply, a personal attack of abuse without point or merit or even calling you a mad conspiracy theorist if you don't agree with everything the media say. I'll give you a few examples - COVID was obviously very divisive, I choose not too have any jabs because that was my choice first and foremost as is my right but if Russia hadn't invaded Ukraine I'd probably be lynched by now by the 4 Jab Militia for not having any as the Gov demanded as people were turning on each other very easily.

If like me you believe we probably aren't and mathematically by percentage of 99.9999% shouldn't be the only living things in all this endless space and the trillions of habitable planets out there, and all that we will never see you're mad tin foil brigade, we're technically made from the mass of dead star energy.
acknowledgement that if Aliens do exist they would be technologically thousands of years ahead of us and either -a) be completely capable of sabotaging and manipulating this world and everything in it or option b) would stay as far away as possible from our destructive nature as we're too primitive in comparison and a mere observational experiment.
However if you believe in a higher power or a religion with less proof you are normal because over half the world believe it.

By er, Vlad The Impaler!