West Ham v AFC Bournemouth - Thursday 7.30 pm

billythekid

billythekid

UTC Legend
Another Tough Away Game In London

After our last league defeat against Liverpool at home, the Cherries came back with a moral boosting winning performance against Swansea City at Dean Court in the FA Cup as they go into their next league game. That game is away at the London Stadium against West Ham on Thursday night at 7.30 pm, it will also be shown on TNT Sports. With West Ham in 6th spot, this will be another tough away game.

David Moyes is expected to sign a new extended contract with West Ham, reported to be two-and-a-half years. This is after rumours/murmurs re his position at West Ham last season, which was Moyes worst full season in charge, since his return to the club in December 2019.

This season David Moyes and West Ham are having a good season in the Premier League, after 21 games they are in 6th position with 35 points, so if previous seasons at this stage are anything to go by, they could be on course for a top seven finish. Their previous positions at the same stage after the same number of games is below.

The 2020-21 season West Ham had 35 points and were in 5th place. 2021-22 season after 21 games, the Hammers were 4th with 37 points. 2022-23 season after 21 games, they were 16th with 19 points, this was David Moyes worst season since his return. But at the end of the season West Ham finished in 14th place with 40 points, six points clear of the first relegation place. The Cherries were one place and one point behind West Ham.

Our first game of the season at Dean Court against West Ham, finished honours even in a 1-1 draw. Since then at their home at the London Stadium, West Ham have beaten Chelsea, Sheffield United, Nottingham Forest, Wolves and Manchester United. They have drawn with Newcastle United, Crystal Palace and Brighton. Lost against Manchester City and Everton. Away from home they have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 4.

Our last away game against West Ham was last season in October 2022 and goals from Kurt Zouma on half-time and a penalty by Benrahma in the 92nd minute sealed the three points for West Ham.

In all our away games against West Ham, AFCB W 2, D 1, L 4.
All competitions, AFCB have W 4, D 6, L 8.

West Ham Team News
Kalvin Phillips has signed on loan from Manchester City. Said Benrahma and Vladimir Coufal are suspended. Lucas Paqueta, Michail Antonio, Edson Alvarez all been out injured. Nayef Aguerd is away on international duty.

West Ham Player To Watch
Leading scorer with 11 league goals is Jarrod Bowen. Now back from international duty, Mohammed Kudus scored 4 goals in six league appearances during December. James Ward-Prowse is always a threat, especially at set pieces and has scored 4 goals and has the most assists this season with 6. In his last six games he has scored 1 goal and had 1 assist.

AFCB Team News
James Hill, our third right back now added to the injury list. He went off injured in the FA Cup game against Swansea City. We now have Antoine Semenyo back from international duty, even though he was on the bench in our recent cup game, he was unused.

AFCB Player To Watch
Dominic Solanke hasn’t gone more than two league games this season without scoring. So he is due to score on Thursday night against West Ham. He has scored 5 goals in his last six league games.

The Referee
Tim Robinson is our referee at the London Stadium. He has been in charge of two of AFCB’s other games this season. Both played at Dean Court and both London clubs, Spurs and Fulham.
 
I’ve looked at the last 4 league games for W Ham. These were two home games (Man U and Brighton) and away at Arsenal and Shef Utd. W Ham were unbeaten and gained 8 points although the XGs suggested this was a great overachievement with 2 being more likely. W Ham have scored 6 goals and conceded 2 with xG estimating 5.69 goals with 8.69 conceded, it would be hard to believe that West Ham can keep outperforming their xGc. Ignoring the last 4 games their xGc is 29.64 with 30 goals conceded suggesting the last 4 games’ data are just a blip.

Goals xG.png

W Ham have had 6 different goal scorers with one goal each and Ings with 2 assists and 3 players with 1 assist each.

The average positions of the starting line-ups are below. West Ham often look to counterattack (as borne out by low possession stats). Against Arsenal nearly all of the players averaged a position in their own half, however, somehow West Ham won this game 2-0.

Av pos.png

The following graph compares summary stats of W Ham and AFCB over the last 4 games. On the underlying stats AFCB are doing well with more goal attempts, similar big chances, xG and goals scored, but have much better stats defensively for attempts conceded and big chances conceded. W Ham are doing markedly better on goals conceded but this feels like an outlier.

Comparison.png

W Ham have a low percentage possession over the last 4 games at 33%, with AAFCB approaching 505. W Ham are good at set pieces, with a higher percentage of chances from set plays and a lower percentage of chances conceded from set plays.

Percentages.png
 
Thanks Matt for really interesting stats again. I don’t usually comment on these (sometimes must admit they go a bit over my head) but the stats seem to show this one will be an intriguing contest. Looks to me like it’s likely to be a cagey affair early on with both sides testing out the other’s willingness to go forward and then hit them on the break, with the game then maybe opening up later. Think it suits our style as long as Kerkez, Zabarnyi and Senesi are on song. Bowen is a worry. Right back is a problem as we all know- maybe Smith will be fit? I reckon we can get something here but will have to be completely focused for the full 90/95/100 as the nature of the game changes. They’re obviously good on the counter, but we’re not bad either. For myself, I’m also hoping to get out of the London Stadium without my card being cloned again!
 
Will be close I think, looking forward to the game if not the view!

Our midfield will have to be on their game against Phillips and Ward Prowse. That’s where it will be won or lost I think..
 
northstandmark said:
We'll need to stick a fresh duracell AA in Ryan Christie's back that's for sure.
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Jesus, yes. Phillips and Ward-Prowse workrates probably match or even exceed Christies... which is saying something.

And tbh they are also bloody good players. Looks a superb midfield partnership in theory tbh, for clubs outside the elite.
 
Have us to win in a multi.

This game is going to be a good one.

We are a bit depleted in certain areas.

Hopefully Smith is back, but doesn't appear likely.

Is Outtara back yet?
 
dragonm8 said:
Have us to win in a multi.

This game is going to be a good one.

We are a bit depleted in certain areas.

Hopefully Smith is back, but doesn't appear likely.

Is Outtara back yet?
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Burkino Faso play Mali in last 16 tonight at 1700GMT.

He returned from injury to play 90 mins in their 2 nil defeat and last group game v Côte d'Ivoire.
 
Not normally negative, but fear that West Ham may be our kryptonite. Big strong side that prioritise set pieces, with Ward-Prowse's excellent delivery, combined with our weakness on set pieces and a GK (whichever one plays) who doesn't dominate his area, and we could come unstuck.

I'll be bricking it every time they have a corner or free kick to swing in, but if we can survive those, we should be able to come away with something.
 
They're a very good team for sure. Not suprising given wages they seem able to offer and therefore attract very good players that are beyond clubs like us (for now).

Bit of weird one, as in they're clearly not elite, where I go in expecting nothing. They don't have that same looming stature, but a very very tough game. Particularly with wiley pragmatic manager pulling the strings.

I'd take a draw for sure if offered it now.
 
MB1980 said:
Jesus, yes. Phillips and Ward-Prowse workrates probably match or even exceed Christies... which is saying something.

And tbh they are also bloody good players. Looks a superb midfield partnership in theory tbh, for clubs outside the elite.
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Phillips certainty won't match Christie's work rate.....not match fit.
Don't think ward prowse is all that either.
 
The overriding consideration as I see it is not so much about the abilities of two teams with not much difference on quality but...
.....the psychology involved for Boscombe, after a crazy run of points gained from mid- November through December, then brutally taken apart by Spurs and Liverpool, 1 goal for and 7 against....how that will have hit their confidence ..
..." oh dear...we ain't as good as we started to think we were ."

West Ham out of the Cup now and gagging for more Europe....but it's how we adapt....could easily be a draw...and that's decent up there.
Moyes wuz spying on us though.. and he is a wily mother F.
 
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Well here we go again. Always struggle with this game as it's the only time in the season I actually want to see Bournemouth lose (well twice in a season really). Think if we have Kudus and Paqman back along with Bowen then we may well pose a few questions for your defense. We could do with a win to keep the pressure up on the top 4 (never going to make the CL but we live in hope). Europe and a top 6 has got to be our goal now. With the exception of Thursday night I wish the Cherries a great season. 2-0 to the Irons
 
northstandmark said:
Sounds like Adam Smith might be back! That'd be a boost to have something like a recognisable back four with actual full backs.
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Yep. Smithy back. Billing back. Faivre travels.
Hill only out for 4-6 weeks apparently, so probably only a major strain after all.
Could have been much worse !
We have a fit Dango back soon and Adams is supposedly not far off.
Starting to look a lot better on the injury front.

And of course we still have Fredericks to come back :throw:
 
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